You think housing is unaffordable now?

... Eventually only. With this qualification, I fully agree with your statement wholeheartedly.

How's about during first 4 years of Kevin Rudd and his new ALP government office term?
What can we truly expect to see as far as the housing markets are concerned, in the mean time?

In the next 4 years, I think the market will fall. Not so much because of what Rudd does, but because the US nastiness isn't done yet.

What's the problem? I don't have enough property to retire in the way that I want. A nasty crash would be GREAT for me to pick up more property and catch the next boom with a bigger portfolio.

Kenneth, what exactly is the problem with a down market? Surely that would be just your cue to buy more?
Alex
 
Yes, having good government and rational economic planning is important. Where you and I disagree is that you believe the Liberals were good economic managers, I don't. I think the boom was a combination of world conditions, and events (such as the temporary end of high inflation) prior to the boom.

In short, I don't think the Libs were the great economic managers you think they were. Therefore, I honestly don't think Labour will be much worse.
Alex
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Dear Alex,

1. I am not pro-Liberal nor pro-ALP.

2. I look at the Australian Economy + its track record of continued economic prosperity over the last 16 years..... It's amazing and high uniquely...beyond the conventional Economics/Business Theories can adequately explain via the Business Cycles Theory etc and in the midst a world of ever changing financial circumstances and global crises... no other world economy is able to do that for that long as far as the Classical Economic/Business Cycle Theory are concerned.

3. You want to tell me that all is due to pure "luck" only and not due to the sound economic management of the Australian Goverment and its RBA?... that the Australian Economy just simply move by itself continually in the right direction towards its economic prosperity over the past 16 years???....

4. I have great diffculty convincing myself to agree and to accept your suggestion... though I do presently agree with you, up to a certain extent only.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
 
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Kenneth, what exactly is the problem with a down market? Surely that would be just your cue to buy more?
Alex

***********
Dear Alex,

1. I have no problem with a down market...and in fact we should realistically expect one to come soon already, based on the conventional Economics Theory.

2. However, the Australian Economy seems to be able to defy the laws of the conventional Economics and Business Theories, with its past 16 years of continued economic prosperity.

3. Thus, I am trying to understand what exactly is this "KEY" to the highly unique economc success in Australia for my own investment planning purposes so that I can learn to invest profitably.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
 
Really in order to cash in on the market drop you need an LVR of 60 or less id imagine... Anything like 80 + effectively your LVR is going to break even with a market crash, or even worse have negative equity.

So how much cash is everyone getting ready in order to make these purchases ?
 
2. I look at the Australian Economy + its track record of continued economic prosperity over the last 16 years..... It's amazing and high uniquely...beyond the conventional Economic Theory can adequately explain via the Business Cycles Theory etc and in the midst a world of ever changing financial circumstances and global crises... no other world economy is able to do that for that long as far as the Classical Economic/Business Cycle Theory are concerned.

3. You want to tell me that all is due to pure "luck" only and not due to the sound economic management of the Australian Goverment?... that the Australian Economy just simply move by itself continually in the right direction towards its economic prosperity over the past 16 years???....

4. I have great diffculty convincing myself to agree and to accept your suggestion... though I do presently agree with you, up to a certain extent only.

Luck, and a combination of factors (including Greenspan panicking and lowering interest rates too much), China, etc. Recession is really just a technical term, you know. It's interesting how the 16 year growth includes 1991 to 2000 or so, when Australians wouldn't have been very confident. I remember in the late 90s Australia got plastered for being an old economy (AUD trading at 50 cents) and then after the dot com bubble burst Australia REALLY fell into the doldrums. That's why it was such a great opportunity to buy property back then! I wasn't really around for the early 90s but by all accounts it was a pretty dead period.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm continuing to buy, though.
Alex
 
Really in order to cash in on the market drop you need an LVR of 60 or less id imagine... Anything like 80 + effectively your LVR is going to break even with a market crash, or even worse have negative equity.

So how much cash is everyone getting ready in order to make these purchases ?

LVR after buying the PPOR: 59.9% (depending on how conservative I'm feeling for the IP values). I figure that gives me 20% to play with. Assuming I use 80% LVR, I can buy 4 times my equity in property.

But it's not just about LVR %. If you have a spare 20% LVR on a $200k portfolio, that's maybe 1 x $300k property. If you have a spare 20% LVR on a $5m portfolio.......

Negative equity isn't necessarily fatal, as long as you can still make payments.
Alex
 
.... without the true understanding how the housing market works in Australia?

Yeah, I'm crazy that way. I believe ultimately it boils down to supply and demand, not politics. As I believe long term Australia will still get population and economic growth, and NO Australian government will ever build enough infrastructure to catch up fully with demand, I'm still buying. My usual cheap, below-median properties with good transport links.

I don't ask how the airplane stays up in the air, either, but I still fly.
Alex
 
I don't ask how the airplane stays up in the air, either, but I still fly.

Just for you Alex ;)

FOIL.gif


I must be crazy too... I can't get enough property at the moment.
 
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Dear VYberlinaV8

1. All depending on Kevin Rudd + ALP Government own political convictions and true understanding of how the Australian Economy works and need to function as well as its skills in economic management.

2. Will this new ALP govt able to ignore its political party's interests and truly govern for the National Interests for Australia and for all Australians? ... Kevin Rudd says he WILL ...which is political correct and highly appealing... but I think he'sound "hollow" and "insincere" to me despite his pretense with a ever smilling face and airs of (false) confidence, as far as I am concerned....

3. Time will tell

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

Hi Kenneth,

Regardless of Rudd's own political convictions, he still needs to govern within the constraints of the constitution, and within what the majority of Australian's consider 'reasonable'. It doesn't take much to kick someone out of govt come election time.

Also, the ALP has been down the path of abolishing negative gearing before (the late 80's, I believe), and apparently it was a disaster. They won't make that mistake twice.

The mistake I think they are most likely to make is to artificially subsidise potential home buyers (eg increase FHOG), which will further increase demand.

They may also push for more land release, but where I live (Canberra), this will be overwhelmingly at the edges of the current suburbs, and will serve only to firm up my inner city properties as rare and desirable places to live.

As always, it's up to the individual to assess each situation on its merits, and to act accordingly. Fundamentally, those persons who understand the basic concepts of 'spend less than you earn', 'invest money in assets that generate cash flow and potentially rise in value' and 'invest other peoples' money where practical' will always outperform the people who simply spend all they earn. Australia is very unlikely to go broke in the short term, meaning that any individual who can outperform the masses in terms of savings and investments will almost certainly end up wealthy.

On a more personal note, I am unconcerned as to whether others are uncomfortable about the current political climate. My strategy remains unchanged: purchase quality, very well located property priced at or just below suburb median price. Unless the country goes broke, there will always be people willing to pay the rent I demand, and as population grows, the value of the property will rise in line with localised demand. If it turns out I don't know what I'm talking about, I'll probably lose a few bucks over the years (although at the moment my IP portfolio is cashflow positive after tax). If I do have an idea about what I'm doing, I'll hopefully get to a point where my investment income exceeds my working income after about another 12 - 15 years.

It is likely, I think, that a period of property price stagnation is due, and could last 10 or more years. During this time I'll continue to purchase IP (despite being told I'm crazy). Then I'll ride the next big boom off into retirement...
 
Hi Kenneth,

It seems as though you are uncertain about future govt policies and its impact on prop investments. At times the govt policies have a massive imapct e.g. Chinese govt decision to POSSIBLY allow mainlanders to invest in Hang Seng resulted ina 50% rally in few months (that’s the latest example I can think of).

I would suggest that you wait until you are clearer in your own mind about how you can achieve your goals with the new givt and its policies.

There is nothing wrong with being in cash and accepting cash rate. This is also an active investment decision, and there have been many times it has been better to be in cash getting cash rate than invested in assets (I can think of countless examples).

Worst that can happen is prices go up .. say 300k prop goes up 10% to 330k .. for you that’s not huge in long term, u smply need 6k more for deposit.. that’s peanuts in longer term picture of property .. It is better to make decisions you are comfortable with and informed about .. that’s my opinions anyways..
 
... Do you aim for suburbs within walking distance to a main train station, or transport "hub", with frequent and express services, or just a suburb with a small train station will suffice?

Shouldn't there be an equal emphasis on the proximity to good road infrastructure? i.e. near motorways, bus routes etc.

dajackal

We have always made proximity to good public transport our No. 1 Priority when deciding on areas in which to invest - by 'good public transport', I mean within walking distance of a train station on a line which has regular and reasonably frequent services (my preference) or busway or major bus route which is not likely to be changed in future. Bernard Salt wrote an article several months ago in which (if I remember) he defined 'walking distance' as being within 800 metres.

IMHO, relying on motor vehicles as a method of transport to and from work surely has to be a thing of the past, in capital/major cities at least - the sheer increase in the volume of peak-hour traffic (that should read 'peak hours') in Brisbane in the last 2 years has been horrendous, and I would imagine that would be echoed in other cities. Our beautiful city, unfortunately, stands as a model of government inertia when it comes to road infrastructure and creating a workable public transport system - and I think that is only going to get worse before it gets better.

Cheers
LynnH
 
It is likely, I think, that a period of property price stagnation is due, and could last 10 or more years. During this time I'll continue to purchase IP (despite being told I'm crazy). Then I'll ride the next big boom off into retirement...
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Dear VyBerlinaV8,

1. Very well said indeed.

2. If you adopt what you have said in your post and allow this scenario of a period of stagnant property price coming to Australia soon, then I am sure that you are among those very few investors who are going to get rich soon with your property investing.

3. You are not "crazy";- You are being smart and a wise investor who is likely to succeed very well in your property investing soon.

4, Likewise, I also know that Alex is going to do well too, using a low LVR, to continue buy his properties into the coming "recession" and ride them out rich, at the next property boom.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
 
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Hi Kenneth,

It seems as though you are uncertain about future govt policies and its impact on prop investments. At times the govt policies have a massive imapct e.g. Chinese govt decision to POSSIBLY allow mainlanders to invest in Hang Seng resulted ina 50% rally in few months (that’s the latest example I can think of).

I would suggest that you wait until you are clearer in your own mind about how you can achieve your goals with the new givt and its policies.

There is nothing wrong with being in cash and accepting cash rate. This is also an active investment decision, and there have been many times it has been better to be in cash getting cash rate than invested in assets (I can think of countless examples).

Worst that can happen is prices go up .. say 300k prop goes up 10% to 330k .. for you that’s not huge in long term, u smply need 6k more for deposit.. that’s peanuts in longer term picture of property .. It is better to make decisions you are comfortable with and informed about .. that’s my opinions anyways..

***********************
Dear Trendsta,

1. Thanks for your concern and advice.

2. Like AlexLee, I am also re-positioning myself now and awaiting to ride into the coming property boom in the Sydney Property Market once the big investment monies begin to flow out from the ASX en masse and enter into property market.

3. This is despite I am also anticipating that Australia is likely to experience the next "Recession" that it need to have soon. I further believe that it will get truly ugly this time for the young Australians to always remember for the rest of their lives, how important their votes are and why the present continued economic prosperity in Australia for the last 16 years is not to be taken lightly nor to be taken for granted. I wish I am wrong in my own assessment and prediction for Australia sake.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH
 
Just for you Alex ;)

FOIL.gif


I must be crazy too... I can't get enough property at the moment.

hence an airplane is actually "sucked" up in the air as the higher pressure tries to get to where the lower pressure is ... not sure about helicopters tho - theoretically they shouldn't be able to fly.

venturi's tube principle.
 
Tough. We get what we vote for: that's democracy. If we choose someone who screws up the country, that's our fault and our responsibility.

I honestly don't think with the risks on the horizon anyone can save Australia from a recession.
Alex
 
Because the last time Greenspan pulled the US out of recession with ultra-low rates and China came back on-line with commodities demand.

This time, neither of those solutions will be available. Low US rates will tank the US dollar even further, and a US recession will affect the Chinese economy.
Alex
 
hence an airplane is actually "sucked" up in the air as the higher pressure tries to get to where the lower pressure is ... not sure about helicopters tho - theoretically they shouldn't be able to fly.

venturi's tube principle.

Like a venturi tube - Bernoulli's principle - PPL(H) wannabe:D

Helicopters beat the air into submission.
 
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