Abbott or Gillard...?

[willair]

Hi all,

Posted a few weeks ago....



OK, the bookies had the 21st at slightly longer odds ~$2.80, but they got August right, maybe they do know something....

In the betting....

Labor $1.25

Any other $3.75

bye

Maybe if a few people did a bit of reading of Australian-History the odds would be different,this is a quote from Sir Robert Gordon Menzies
K,T.CH,FRS,QC..PRIME MINISTER OF AUSTRALIA,,1939-41 and 1949-66..
The Basic philosopy of Australian Liberalism is that the prime duty of government is to encourage enterprise,to provide a climate favourable to its growth,to remenber that it is the individual whose engeries produce progress,and that all social benefits derive from his or hers efforts..
Page 55,The Measure Of The Years..Sir Robert Menzies..

I only bet once a year on ther big race in Vic,but i intend to have a small punt with the way the odds are for the LIBS..IMHO..willair..

 

[Bargain Hunter]

As time marches on I fear the bookies are correct. The voters will overlook the fact the JG usurped the position and supported all the decisions of the previous ruler, if they do want to show their contempt they will give her their support via The Greens. She will be rewarded the throne and her supporters will tell everyone to backoff and let her get on with the job.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

IMHO, this is one of the most important elections in my lifetime. It will impact significantly the public debt burden on Gen X and Y, the quality and quantity of public services available, Australia's global competitiveness in many industries other than mining, and the future cost of credit.

I'd implore people to not vote for PM personalities, or a party's stance on one issue like the environment, but the reasonableness of the party's view on all major responsibilities of government.

I presume many vote left to ensure a more equitable split of the pie, and many vote right to create a bigger pie. If you think nurses, policemen, and teachers are not paid enough, or there are not enough of each, if you are unhappy with public transport, road congestion, and tolls, then consider whether the long term solution is to continuously slice the same sized pie differently, or to create a larger pie.


Some pertinent links:

Check your enrollment status.
Enroll to vote or change address. If unenrolled you can enroll by 8pm Monday 19/7/10, by email or fax, or personally going to an AEC office.

ABC Antony Green's analysis. the guru imho. Well presented info.

Have a bet
IASbet.com
centrebet.com

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Interesting how many think the bookies have got it wrong. Bookmakers do not stay in business long if they get their odds wrong, the ones that exist and grow to large size are pretty good at what they do.

They rely on the mug punters taking the juicy looking odds, as much as the spread between the 2 sides of the bet.

bye

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Interesting how many think the bookies have got it wrong.

They can still make money getting it wrong more often than right.

They also adapt their odds to the latest news. So what looks right today can be wrong tomorrow.

Nevertheless, knowing bookies, no doubt they engineer an information advantage, by having insiders in each party's campaign HQ leaking strategy.

 

[Mandy Mac]

See, I don't think it's important much at all.

Both have similar policies so far.

Gillard has a great big new tax on mining to fund stuff.
Abbott wants a great big new tax on business to pay for maternity leave.

Both have similar views on asylum seekers - esp those who arrive by boat rather than plane.

Neither will touch healthcare with a barge pole. Gillard coz she assassinated Rudd who was in the process of revitalising healthcare. Abbott coz of his less than successful record as health minister.

Neither will pull us out of our unwinnable wars.

At least Abbott's speech had some substance to it rather than Gillard's rhetoric - I'm keen to hear more about his Green Army.

 

[Bargain Hunter]

They have named our new electorate after Billy McMahon - Liberal PM and predict a margin of 13.8% to Labor. Oh the irony.

 

[weg]

Bookies will be watching where the money's going and hedging on the punters bets as well, even though Labor is the clear favourite.

Keep in mind too that because more people might be betting Labor it doesn't mean all those voters will vote Labor as well.

 

[weg]

See, I don't think it's important much at all.

Both have similar policies so far.

Labor haven't touched on most of the Dr. Henry recommendations yet.

 

[Sunfish]

Seems not everyone understands what "making a book" means. Bookies are agnostic about the results and try to take no position. They simply adjust the odds on the different results so that there is a profit regardless of the results.

The odds on the election do not reflect the "opinion" of Betfair et al but the weight of money. It does not reflect "voting intentions" either: I could believe that one side will win and try to make a profit on this belief while casting a vote for someone else.

It could even be that most consider themselves too smart to be "taken in" by Julia but reckon everyone else will be besotted by her youth, gender, good looks (?) etc.

In spite of this they are a good indicator.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Seems not everyone understands what "making a book" means. Bookies are agnostic about the results and try to take no position. They simply adjust the odds on the different results so that there is a profit regardless of the results.

There's balanced and unbalanced books SF. I am not familiar with what system online agencies use.

Further, the agency offering better odds will attract more bets, so insight into the outcome can be advantageous.

 

[Gordon Farkus]

There's balanced and unbalanced books SF. I am not familiar with what system online agencies use.

Bookmakers generally have books ranging from 107% to 120%. The TABs around the country are a disgrace, offering poor odds with their 115%-120% books. But, unfortunately, they are the ones best known and they get the publicity and the subsequent business.

If you want to have a punt, do yourself a favour and open a Betfair account and get to bet on a fair 100%-105% book including commission. Betfair is a betting exchange, not a bookmaker. Why anyone would ever bet with a TAB is beyond me.

Right now Betfair will give you $1.36 on Labor, TAB Sportsbet will give you $1.27. Betfair will deduct a small commission but you're still way in front with them. And believe me, it's the same for everything else you want to bet on. As a punter, Betfair is fantastic.

 

[topcropper]

Julia looks the goods.

I've never voted for labor and never will, but I reckon Julia has been very impressive so far. Labor has moved back a bit to the right and the middle ground with numerous issues. She's so much better than lunatic Rudd and I couldn't bare to watch or even listen to the pathetic loser anymore. It's been a spectacularly successful move by labor to ditch him and blame him for all the stuff ups.

Julia's TV adds are impressive. She mentions population growth numerous times and how the 'big Australia' is finished. She was flawless on '60 minutes' last night. She even looked highly attractive to me which I found surprising.

I think dumping Rudd and attaching all the stuff ups to him, and replacing with Julia will prove to be a stroke of genious for labor.

The only thing I don't like about Julia so far is that she has cost the Libs the election win.


Unless the libs can get rid of Abbott, and get Turnbull or Costello in there it's all over.


See ya's.

 

[Sunfish]

Unless the libs can get rid of Abbott, and get Turnbull or Costello in there it's all over.


See ya's.

Dunno! If Julia can control the agenda as she intends, the Libs are a lost cause and I doubt any of those three are tough enough. Howard (who I detested) may have been able to break her out of "looking forward" and force her to explain her past and Keating would have had enough "mongrel" in him too.

Interesting! I have voted Labor most of my life but Dudd cured me of that. Under a thin veneer Labor is still RED.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Gillard knows they can rely on the Greens to pick up the extreme left vote, so Labor can move to the middle with confidence. I don't have any confidence in Gillard doing the right thing.....The school uniforms and East Timor detention centre I find unintelligible.

The Coalition have too many idiot egos who cannot read the public mood. Howard should not have been leader in the 2007 election. Turnbull disappointed me with his ETS stance. Costello is quixotic.

 

[topcropper]

Gillard knows they can rely on the Greens to pick up the extreme left vote, so Labor can move to the middle with confidence.

Yep, exactly.

All the lefties who aren't happy with labor moving to the right will vote greens. Equals a vote to labor anyway. Plus all the electorally uninformed and ignorant who mistakenly think the greens are the middle ground.

Abbott is due to make a few big stuff ups and gaffs, hasn't made any for a while.

Labor are doing everything right to win the election.




See ya's.

 

[Ausprop]

I've never voted for labor and never will, but I reckon Julia has been very impressive so far. .

she has had the benefit of doing things twice... RSPT... nope let's ditch that and call it somehting else. big austrawwwlyia, didn't go well, let's try small australia. refugees.... let's try the liberals approach

 

[D.T.]

austrawwwlyia

I laugh every time I hear this. Vote for someone who knows how to pronounce their country.

 

[scarf]

hahaha^^^^^

Green? but i think it goes to Abbot!?

 

[Macca]

Hi,

I thought this would happen, unfortunately

Very cunning move by the power brokers to swing in a female

<<With Ms Gillard Australia's first female Prime Minister, women are shoring up Labor's numbers, with female voters preferring Labor by 58 per cent to 42 per cent, while support among men is tied at 50-50.

''There is a real gender gap in this election,'' the Nielsen poll director, John Stirton, said.>>

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/women-give-gillard-the-winning-edge-20100723-10oxh.html