Wow, you fold faster than Superman on laundry day.
He/she is not working anybody up? As adults, we are all responsible for our emotions.
ANZ Bank Tips 2 More Interest Rate Cuts - More Fuel For Positivity
- Thread starter Lord Shanghai
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Wow, you fold faster than Superman on laundry day.
He/she is not working anybody up? As adults, we are all responsible for our emotions.
Great post Euro. The economists just call this a shift in Australia's economy from a low debt to an average/high debt economy.
Its HIGHLY unlikely (for the reasons you suggested) that the next three decades will see the same debt trajectory. More than likely, its reached a peak point and will grow at a lower, more sustainable level over the medium term.
That doesn't mean to say prices will crash/correct/etc - although without something pushing it along again, i don't think there's any real justification to inserting 7-10% growth figures in excel spreadsheets when assuming growth. The spruikers story using 'past performance' as a future indicator is a limited analysis at best.
Its HIGHLY unlikely (for the reasons you suggested) that the next three decades will see the same debt trajectory. More than likely, its reached a peak point and will grow at a lower, more sustainable level over the medium term.
That doesn't mean to say prices will crash/correct/etc - although without something pushing it along again, i don't think there's any real justification to inserting 7-10% growth figures in excel spreadsheets when assuming growth. The spruikers story using 'past performance' as a future indicator is a limited analysis at best.
In business we call it going bankrupt.
Jeez and you make out you're an economics aficionado. It's a simple model Redom. Banks create credit which they sell at a margin. To increase profits credit creation must increase. In maths they call that an exponential equation. You reduce credit growth and banks go tits up.
Prices always revert to mean at some point in time. The further prices move from the mean the more violent the correction tends to be. Check your history. It's never failed yet.
Several of Mt Freckles' posts could be seen to be insulting the posters whom he is disagreeing with. I suspect we are having too much fun with him to report it to the Mods.
Hit the nail on the head
Seems to just regurgitate the usual boring, meaningless graphs.
He clearly knows nothing about property, he never buys property when its a rising market, oh that's right, he has other fish to fry.... and pigs will fly
They banned him from property investment forum, Steve McKnight shut his account, it was classic
Nothing wrong with Freckly, he is just confused he needs to find the right forum... , plenty of those "doom and gloom" forums, this will cheer him up
1. Businesses don't rely on debt financing? Really? Debt = bankruptcy? If property investors treat their own investments as a business - are they all going bankrupt?
2. Its more about the sustainability of the debt growth. We've transitioned away from an average debt to a high debt economy. Its largely a reflection of being a net capital importer and our position in the world.
3. Prices revert to a mean? Prices oscillate around a growth path generally. Not a mean. History? Compare 1900's mean to todays mean and you'll see what I mean.
Is this what happened to Atlantis, ancient Egypt and the folks that built Stonehenge?
They banned him from property investment forum, Steve McKnight shut his account, it was classic
McKnight has a thin skin and didn't like being called out on several of his rants. He got particularly upset when I pointed out how much he was skimming from his US investment fund in upfront and ongoing fees. Called me a liar and when I threw his own fund presentation back at him (video) he went quiet and bannings became a regular occurrence. When he wasn't banning one of my many accounts I would challenge his attempts at pseudo economics. That seemed to get under his skin as well LOL
I still exist there although the place is as dead as Dodo.
Would this help..
Even the ancients understood that to maintain a financial system debt had to be forgiven. Today we monetise debt and stick someone else with the problem only for it to come back and create even more problems. In modern times the failure of a system usually marks the handing on of the reserve currency baton. That tends to run every 80 yrs or so. I believe we're overdue but it seems the next transition might be sooner than we think if the Chinese and Russians have anything to do with it.
So are you suggesting that we should load up on debt, since all that debt is going to forgiven.... Leaving us with all the equity ?!!!
Awesome!!!
Three points...
1) So give us a date. Tell us when it's going to happen. You told us you went to 100% cash over 2 years ago. On what date will you admit you were wrong ? You've obviously been wrong for the last couple of years.
Of course, you will be right eventually, but you will have missed a lot of opportunity between 2 years ago and when the chicken lickens finally do get it right
.2) It doesn't matter what YOU believe, what matters is what the markets believe, and consequently what you believe the market believes.
And for the last 2 years your beliefs & the markets beliefs have been polar opposites. So many missed opportunities......
3) Do you believe you're smart enough to preempt the market by a couple of weeks, or only smart enough to preempt them by 2-3 years ? If you have less than (say) $50M in the market, I reckon you should be taking advantage of the opportunities that are actually happening, and waiting til TEOTWAWKI actually does happen, before going to cash/gold/short. TEOTWAWKI won't happen overnight, there will be plenty of time for the smart ones to exit earlier rather than later - do you want to be in that group ?
Two problems the majority of PI's face (the bottom 80%), liquidity and solvency. The balance sheets have low asset values, high debt to equity ratios and insufficient liquidity if one income source is compromised. A high debt society is a BS way of saying living on an almost maxed out credit. The price of credit is nearing zero simply so banks can squeeze just a bit more credit capacity out of an already maxed out consumer.
Debt growth is only sustainable when it matches income growth and it hasn't done that for 30 years!! Economic growth has averaged 3% while debt growth has averaged 10%. We all know how that ends.
What the hell do capital flows have to do with private debt. Corporate debt I can understand but private????????
Some days I could swear you're in a parallel universe.
Growth paths are projections (also called trend lines). Mean averages are functions of past totals and portray a moving average.
Around Aug 07 I think. When it's going to happen?? It's happening now. Has been for a while. People think that because it's not personally happening to them then it's not happening.
Lets see. I called the mining crash in 09. Told people then that buying property in mining towns was a mugs game. Told a few I worked with that now was a good time to take their winning and cash out. None did and all did their doh.
In 2012 told those I knew to cash their businesses out now before it was too late. None did and all are broke or parked up in paddocks.
2011/12 I suggested WA would go into a slow burn.. slow burn there and getting worse by the month. The collapse in oil and gas will make it much more difficult than even I envisaged.
Those who know me know I indicated that China wasn't the sustaining force many would like to think it is nor would India ride to the rescue and be the next China, that AU's economy would slowly but surely tank on falling exports, resource contraction and global deflation.
So far things continue on track as I've predicted.
Of course, you will be right eventually, but you will have missed a lot of opportunity between 2 years ago and when the chicken lickens finally do get it right
Pffft What opportunity? A few measly percent on a highly leveraged asset that could turn to custard at anytime. The GFC came out of the blue for most. The next leg down will catch just as many.
There's about 2 gazzillion opportunities a day and I haven't lost a wink of sleep because I missed them. Tomorrows another day and there'll be another gazillion opportunities to mull over.
What's this market waffle?? You've never listened to a market in your life and if you did you still wouldn't have a clue what they're saying. From the guy who muddle through blue chip investing 101 and now thinks he's some kind of market guru. Give us break.
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Nope and nope
If you have less than (say) $50M in the market, I reckon you should be taking advantage of the opportunities that are actually happening, and waiting til TEOTWAWKI actually does happen, before going to cash/gold/short. TEOTWAWKI won't happen overnight, there will be plenty of time for the smart ones to exit earlier rather than later - do you want to be in that group ?
Hmmm hows that working out for the mobs who were shorting the CHF... I'd rather be a year early than a day late. Dude get a funny hat, a crystal ball and a tent. You'll probably do OK.
So there lies the reason as to why you're here. Trolls need to be feed.
You like a few others need to get your head around what trolling actually is. If you don't understand the Queen's English and have difficulty in using it correctly then it becomes increasing difficult to take anything you say seriously.
Mystified as to how you extrapolate that conclusion.
I know you find this stuff somewhat challenging but when your assets are liquidated and a debt remains that is or would be the component that may be forgiven. Leaving one with the assets only happens if your TBTB or TBTF. I'm afraid you are unlikely to ever fall into that category.
From memory this was not why you were banned.
However, I don't like his fund, no control, skimming?? I think you mean fees, once again don't like this either, no control, but this is pretty stock standard when you invest in this sort of product.
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