I see little pink piggies with wings flashing their bottoms!
Here little piggey....here piggey....LOL.
Here little piggey....here piggey....LOL.
Are we on the cusp of an upswing for property?
- Thread starter sash
- Start date
I see little pink piggies with wings flashing their bottoms!
Here little piggey....here piggey....LOL.
Given your predictions in the first post:
My post was simply responding to the idea that property will be in trouble if China takes a big hit. Of course property will be in trouble - the ASX will plunge and business, jobs will go down the drain. In other words, everything will be stuffed.
I hold resi property and resource sector shares. So I am not of the opinion that China will take such a hit.
China doesn't need to fall for Australia to fall. A simple slowdown to 3-4% growth will wipe this country out within one month. If coupled with further, untimely decrippling collapse of European countries and a double-dip in the USA, everyone here would be royally screwed in the next 6 years, except a few people who find means to survive such as practising insolvency laws and bankers reposessing houses.
yup been buying many ipad2 accessories from the US as well as camera gear.
Even been buying clothing which is a 1st time for me online with branded shirts like ralph lauren are like cheaper by 30-40% why not? it is cheaper over there naturally but with the exchange rate beats prices here.
@This Thread!
ALL SPECULATION!
Are we all seasoned economists? NO
Are even seasoned economists, RBA, Banks able to clearly address what we are speculating? NO
Do they get it right? NO
What chance have we got to SPECULATE with CERTAINTY about future boom or bust or even interest rates up or down, let alone basing our investing policy on that? Close to ZERO.
Does one need to be a seasoned Economist, or even painter, accountant, builder, plumber, electrician... etc. to be a good investor? NO
What possibly can we doing brainstorming something which we have absolutely no certainty of getting it right? WASTING TIME (including me of course)
ALL SPECULATION!
Are we all seasoned economists? NO
Are even seasoned economists, RBA, Banks able to clearly address what we are speculating? NO
Do they get it right? NO
What chance have we got to SPECULATE with CERTAINTY about future boom or bust or even interest rates up or down, let alone basing our investing policy on that? Close to ZERO.
Does one need to be a seasoned Economist, or even painter, accountant, builder, plumber, electrician... etc. to be a good investor? NO
What possibly can we doing brainstorming something which we have absolutely no certainty of getting it right? WASTING TIME (including me of course
)
@This Thread!
ALL SPECULATION!
Are we all seasoned economists? NO
Are even seasoned economists, RBA, Banks able to clearly address what we are speculating? NO
Do they get it right? NO
What chance have we got to SPECULATE with CERTAINTY about future boom or bust or even interest rates up or down, let alone basing our investing policy on that? Close to ZERO.
Does one need to be a seasoned Economist, or even painter, accountant, builder, plumber, electrician... etc. to be a good investor? NO
What possibly can we doing brainstorming something which we have absolutely no certainty of getting it right? WASTING TIME (including me of course
Dead right, but between all the seasoned experienced investors here, the knowledge level will give us a pretty good guestimate of what to expect.
The difference is the "in the field" knowledge.
My guess is that many economists are not investors, and like many people who work in finance related fields - are not necessarily that financially educated - i.e look at their personal financial statements, and you often see high levels of consumer debt and little investing/asset related debt and/or passive income.
RedPanda,
This might be brainstorming to you....but I have a lot riding on this...so I am not speculating.
Over the years I have build my portfolio doing this sort of analysis...so to me it is not a waste of time.
In fact to be a successful investor....you need to know all the facts of where a market is heading and then make a decision to move forward. This is how all businesses work...they analyze the market, develop a forecast, and then implement a plan to achieve their targeted revenue and net income. It is not different for successful property investors.
By this level of planning you get into markets early when they are depressed and ride the upturn.
I have an ambitious plan to hit $10m.....some people have laughed at this idea. But to put it perspective....I started with 220k in properties in 1999....in 2004 I hit 890k.....in 2007 hit $1.8m....in 2009 $3.4m......I will let you extrapolate what I hit in 2011?
Also my net asset value has increased 25 fold...or a 2500% increase.
There is not way I could have done this without some level of forward planning.
Lets say I only hit $7-$9m in assets...it is still better than doing nothing. My LVR throughout this acquisition phase has stayed at 30%-40%. This is because I am buying well as well as retiring debt at about 100-120k per annum (was lower now at running at this rate).
Hope this helps.....
This might be brainstorming to you....but I have a lot riding on this...so I am not speculating.
Over the years I have build my portfolio doing this sort of analysis...so to me it is not a waste of time.
In fact to be a successful investor....you need to know all the facts of where a market is heading and then make a decision to move forward. This is how all businesses work...they analyze the market, develop a forecast, and then implement a plan to achieve their targeted revenue and net income. It is not different for successful property investors.
By this level of planning you get into markets early when they are depressed and ride the upturn.
I have an ambitious plan to hit $10m.....some people have laughed at this idea. But to put it perspective....I started with 220k in properties in 1999....in 2004 I hit 890k.....in 2007 hit $1.8m....in 2009 $3.4m......I will let you extrapolate what I hit in 2011?
Also my net asset value has increased 25 fold...or a 2500% increase.
There is not way I could have done this without some level of forward planning.
Lets say I only hit $7-$9m in assets...it is still better than doing nothing. My LVR throughout this acquisition phase has stayed at 30%-40%. This is because I am buying well as well as retiring debt at about 100-120k per annum (was lower now at running at this rate).
Hope this helps.....
@This Thread!
ALL SPECULATION!
Are we all seasoned economists? NO
Are even seasoned economists, RBA, Banks able to clearly address what we are speculating? NO
Do they get it right? NO
What chance have we got to SPECULATE with CERTAINTY about future boom or bust or even interest rates up or down, let alone basing our investing policy on that? Close to ZERO.
Does one need to be a seasoned Economist, or even painter, accountant, builder, plumber, electrician... etc. to be a good investor? NO
What possibly can we doing brainstorming something which we have absolutely no certainty of getting it right? WASTING TIME (including me of course
Agreed. I agree we need to have a feel for the market, but only feel, nothing more. I wouldn't base my investing policy on guestimate, nor do I believe in timing the market (perhaps because I'm always late
). FUNDAMENTALS RULE!
well then we're in the s**t because IMF just predicted our growth to be 2%, not 4.25% as per the RBA.
These analysis probably didn't mattered.
Market is always heading up. The dips of a couple of years don't matter if you are a long term investor and I think your strategy was being a long term investor.
I don't doubt that, mate. You are a successful investor and you'll reach what you aspire for.
Investment planning yes, but trying to master the economy is what I'm sceptical about.
Of course. Well done.
Too low in my opinion for a person still accumulating properties. For me, essence of property investing is leverage. If LVR is 30-40%, I wouldn't say it is fully optimised. I would have used 100-120K to buy more properties instead of retiring debt. For me, these aspects require more focus in planning than trying to time the market. Maybe you might have crossed 10m by now if you'd believed the saying that "It's time in the market that's important not timing the market".
P.S. I'm much lower on the property ladder (I entered late) than you. But that doesn't stop me from having an opinion and learning from others (including you
. Nevertheless, you are an inspiration, to achieve what you have. Well done.wow so many macro economic predictions and applied to all of Australia like we are one big property market. Who cares. Regardless of whether you are bearish or bullish, there will be properties outperforming and underperforming in many of the thousands of property markets around the country, all affected by different things...not just macro economics. It's always a good time to buy in the right place.
Exactly!!!
See my bolded comments....
These analysis probably didn't mattered.
Don't agree with that.....
Market is always heading up. The dips of a couple of years don't matter if you are a long term investor and I think your strategy was being a long term investor.
I know plenty of long term investors who have been in the market for 10 years...still holding properties with poor growth...though they just got positive. Some gave up and sold and made a loss in real terms.
I don't doubt that, mate. You are a successful investor and you'll reach what you aspire for.
Investment planning yes, but trying to master the economy is what I'm sceptical about.
It is not about controlling the economy but you can actively manage risk
Of course. Well done.
Too low in my opinion for a person still accumulating properties. For me, essence of property investing is leverage. If LVR is 30-40%, I wouldn't say it is fully optimised. I would have used 100-120K to buy more properties instead of retiring debt. For me, these aspects require more focus in planning than trying to time the market. Maybe you might have crossed 10m by now if you'd believed the saying that "It's time in the market that's important not timing the market". A combination of time in the market and managing risk. This is what some investors fail to realise...some of people who geared up found during the GFC they had to sell when IR rates went up and cashflow dried up....plan for the worst and expect the best is my motto!!! Slow and steady wins the race. Also, I found I have grown wealth when I timed markets...it takes a bit more skill but it can be done.
P.S. I'm much lower on the property ladder (I entered late) than you. But that doesn't stop me from having an opinion and learning from others (including you
That's probably because they bought wrong properties at wrong locations and not when they bought properties. If you had bought the same properties a couple of years before or later, I suspect you might have also got similar returns. I am not at all saying that one should buy without DD and researching an area. On the contrary I'm saying that these things need more attention than when to buy.
But if this has worked for you or if you are indeed able to pick exact times to buy the property then good for you. You may have an exceptional skill that most investors lack.
Quote - "Great....care to share your successes....what you say is a lot easier said than done. Just because a market is performing does not mean someone will buy well in that market....otherwise we would all be millionaires. The papers are saying places like Port Hedland and Gladstone are booming...want to take a bet some people are losing money in these markets??"
I think you've missed my point. Personally I like to spend more time researching the micro factors that affect specific markets, then thoroughly researching and performing DD in those areas. I feel my time is better spent doing that, than worrying about macro economics which usually have significantly less impact on the specific markets i'm researching than the micro factors affecting supply and demand. I'm not having a go at your strategy, based on what you've listed it's clearly been successful for you.
I think you've missed my point. Personally I like to spend more time researching the micro factors that affect specific markets, then thoroughly researching and performing DD in those areas. I feel my time is better spent doing that, than worrying about macro economics which usually have significantly less impact on the specific markets i'm researching than the micro factors affecting supply and demand. I'm not having a go at your strategy, based on what you've listed it's clearly been successful for you.
Sash,
Any details you care to share that might help property investors to not make the same mistakes?
Cheers,
Oracle.
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