ASX down how much

[WinstonWolfe]

Maybe more than you think, according to this.

GP

True....Even though China exports to the USA are ~20% of total, 50% go to Asian developing countries and 10% to Japan. The latter two export heavily to the USA.

Therefore, slowing US imports would hurt China more severely, via Asia developing nations and Japan.

 

[lizzie]

usa market up due to bargin hunters. nasdaq up 4% at 4am aest ... hang on for the yoyo ride

http://www.nasdaq.com//aspxcontent/...SDJONLINE000496.htm&cdtime=09/30/2008 +1:11PM

 

[davewill]

Lizzie are you sure on the first part of your comment. Sunfish you are quite knowledgable on the resources front.

Does BHP and RIO have long term contracts, ie 5yrs or more? If so what proportion of total resource production is tied under long term contracts?
Are the contract prices near the recent high market prices?

thanks info would be appreciated.

I think the iron ore prices are negotiated every year...not sure. Over the last few years the spot prices have been higher than the contract prices.

I sold down bhp in june for over 45 and bought some back yesterday for 31.25 BHP sell to more than just the chinese so the global down turn will still effect them. 31 still seems like a reasonable price.

 

[boomtown]

GreatPig

No one here is suggesting China can ride it out because it is a processing centre - we are saying it can ride it out because of domestic demand.

Your article supports that.

 

[GreatPig]

we are saying it can ride it out because of domestic demand.

Take a look at this article by George Friedman of Strator (specialising in geopolitical analysis).

The weakness of insularity for China is poverty. Given the ratio of arable land to population, a self-enclosed China is a poor China. Its population is so poor that economic development driven by domestic demand, no matter how limited it might be, is impossible.

China has placed itself in a position where it has to keep its customers happy. It struggles against this reality daily, but the fact is that the rest of the world is far less dependent on China's exports than China is dependent on the rest of the world.

GP

 

[Aaron Sice]

usa market up due to bargin hunters. nasdaq up 4% at 4am aest ... hang on for the yoyo ride

reminds me of that song "dead cat" by grinspoon.

"dead cat (bounce) 3 times" *cue orse guitar riff here*

 

[boomtown]

The weakness of insularity for China is poverty. Given the ratio of arable land to population, a self-enclosed China is a poor China. Its population is so poor that economic development driven by domestic demand, no matter how limited it might be, is impossible.

Thats a silly statement. Yes a farmer who earns $100 USD per annum is not in a position to be a consumer. But 40% of China's population is urbanised. A typical house cleaner earns 40 - 70 Australian cents per hour. A typical office worker earns $7k Australian dollars per annum. A highly qualified professional can earn up to $25k Australian dollars per annum. And the rich make us look very poor indeed.

China has placed itself in a position where it has to keep its customers happy. It struggles against this reality daily, but the fact is that the rest of the world is far less dependent on China's exports than China is dependent on the rest of the world.

The rest of the world is a very big place. Its made up of places like Russia, Egypt, UAE, North Korea, Myanmar etc that have very little connection to the USA. A wee little blow up on Wall Street isnt going to affect Russia very much.

 

[Sunfish]

At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, China is not being run by "successful" greedy capitalists. If Coca Cola, Woolworths, Gerry Hervey, BHP, RIO ran their businesses they would be getting 25% more for their product (and laughing all the way to the bank), which the market could stand, and see a trebeling of gross profit.

Think about it: Chinese products could double in price and no way would an Aussie manufacturer consider starting to manufacture in competition. I'm often amazed at the price of an item. Logic tells me that an Aussie manufacturer would be hard pressed selling the packaging for the price we buy the complete Chinese manufactured item. I recently bought an electric chain-saw for less than I would buy a replacement chain at my local hardware store. They could screw us and we would have no choice other than "laying back and think of England" (advice once given for when rape was inevitable).

 

[willair]

They could screw us and we would have no choice other than "laying back and think of England" (advice once given for when rape was inevitable).

Any ideas on what will happen today,no big falls for the last few days
and if everything goes the way i think it will in the US over the next
hour then we may see the start of another upward trend still 50-50
which way it can go..imho..willair..

 

[craigb]

realy don't know to day could follow US and start firm and end up in neg @ -1% or keep moving upward, Obama made a prety good spech this morning, very compelling,
i myself am so over this as financially tough at home at the moment and it is all making me a bit ill.

 

[boomtown]

Craig

I reckon you take the rest of the week off. Drive your ute up to some remote beach and take your fishing gear. Eat whatever you can catch and some tins of baked beans. Dont listen to the radio.

I reckon by the time you get back on Monday the world will have sorted itself out a bit.

 

[Aaron Sice]

remember, working for yourself is a privelege.

enjoy the fact that with the hard times come good times.

i've had months with no income - hard, but now cash is good so stashing like a squirrel.

chin up dude - read a story to your kids, let em jump on you and have a wrestle, then dump em at the grandy's and have a night in with the missus and a DVD.

it'll all be better next weekend.

 

[craigb]

thanks bluecard, i am sure it will all sort itself out and yes thinking about it all the time is no damn good, i apreciate your concern.

 

[lizzie]

mid october it will all be forgotten ...

 

[Aaron Sice]

thanks bluecard, i am sure it will all sort itself out and yes thinking about it all the time is no damn good, i apreciate your concern.

just jump on the dole - you know you want to.

 

[BV]

just jump on the dole - you know you want to.

Or you can sell your newly built property and then go out and do it all again...

 

[craigb]

BV it is on the market now but was that an offer?
US markets just got smashed again, down 4% good luck those betting on today.

 

[evand]

Never heard its a privilege before. I reckon its a right, a right available to any Australian.

If you aren't making money in your business. Then its either not a 'business' (don't laugh, you would be amazed at what some people call a business) or the business has a problem which can be fixed.

Locate the problem, fix it and start making money.

Usually the most common problem with a struggling business is not enough demand for the service/product on offer.

The first step is to locate & describe the demand for your particular thing.

Then design your marketing specifically for the sector with the demand and target it in many ways. Ads, seminars, mail, calls etc etc

This is very basic but the fundamentals of a successful business.

Good Luck and pm me if you want some advice.

remember, working for yourself is a privilege.

enjoy the fact that with the hard times come good times.

 

[letiha]

I brought some BHP shares today they are down to 30.16 last I checked, will see how they go next week.

 

[craigb]

mmm! not fun to loose, but wait for the US gov to pass the vote???, may be a spike and an opp to unload, but in my opionion, i can't see much of an upward surge too soon.and would be more than happy to say i was wrong. so we will see.