What farmers? Which exporters? I don't think we export anything
Australian Dollar
- Thread starter MTR
- Start date
What farmers? Which exporters? I don't think we export anything
Well I doubt local holidays will get any cheaper they will just seem cheaper. Still be cheaper for us Perthies to go to Bali than over East I bet
Cheaper for me coming back to Aus. Haven't been great making US dollars the last couple of years so it's a nice change, too bad I've transferred most of it back already above parity for settlements but will just see it as getting a nice pay rise.
you're kidding right?
Australia's top 10 agricultural exports (by value) – 2011-12 financial year
Major agriculture export products FY2012 A$m Share of Rank Total
Total Agriculture 36,693 100.0%
damn it, formatting is out but in 2011/12 alone we exported $36bn worth of agricultural products.
http://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/negotiations/trade_in_agriculture.html
"The agricultural industry is one of the most trade-exposed sectors of the Australian economy.[4] According to Charles McElhorn from the National Farmers Federation a 1% change in the value of Australian dollar is equivalent to a change of $220 million in export earnings."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Australia
most of our resources are exported in USD as well and the lower AUD is going to help tremendously in terms of royalties etc for state govts
All the US expats at work who have been whinging for awhile as they get paid in US $ will start smiling again
I bought more gold when that happened.
not sure it was such a good idea with the risk-off trades at the minute, but I'm happy to wait.
All the US expats at work who have been whinging for awhile as they get paid in US $ will start smiling again
I bought US shares when dollar was strong. Have also had good gains. Now aussie dollar down, can't complain. P u r e l u c k ....
I'm gonna miss Amazon's good deals, as well as overseas airfares
It was a tongue in cheek comment. But a few months ago i do recall seeing a graph of australian agricultral exports vs GDP dating back to the 60's and its a sharp curve downward.
Finally starting to bring money back from US rentals, I did not expect Aussie $ to fall back so quickly, pure luck for me too..
The esteemed Jim Rogers agrees with you.
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/i...ore-gold-today-bull-market-far-from-over.html
Can't bring myself to buy at these extortionate prices - remember, the yellow metal sold for barely $300 back in the latter years of the last century, hardly a decade ago.
Can trees grow into the sky? I think not.
Remember, despite all the pump priming, there's hardly any inflation to be seen. There's simply no reason for gold to keep going up. Middle eastern buying is drying up and will continue doing so as oil prices weaken.
Gold simply has to fall!
Rogers is a brilliant man. And Aaron, your own posts are among the more highly regarded in this forum.....nevertheless I think you are both stark raving mad.
Good luck just the same.
Primarily holding USD. Looking forward to further AUD falls + Australian interest rate falls. Double whammy.
Feel sorry for the cohort who horded AUD cash in their bank accounts.
Feel sorry for the cohort who horded AUD cash in their bank accounts.
if bernanke turns the taps off, then expect inflation.
money will pour out of the stock Market and into land and commodities.
I'm waiting for the pump and dump. when the Dow hits 15000 again, short!
money will pour out of the stock Market and into land and commodities.
I'm waiting for the pump and dump. when the Dow hits 15000 again, short!
Of course it's a sharp curve downward. It's what happens in any first world, developed country. And it didn't start in the 60's, it started since humans moved out of the cave and started growing crops and fencing in animals, when agriculture was almost 100% of GDP. It also has nothing to do with declining exports. They aren't in decline, it's do do with the rest of the economy growing faster.
As agriculture gets more and more efficient, it takes less and less labour. This allows more and more people to do other equally important jobs besides growing food.
So now in Australia only a tiny fraction of the workforce are farmers, and agriculture makes up a tiny percentage of GDP. Whereas in say Ethiopia, where 70% of the workforce are farmers, agriculture is a massive part of the GDP. Even manufacturing powerhouse China has agriculture at 10% GDP, compared to Australia 4%. This is because agriculture still employs a third of the Chinese workforce. But an Australian farmer is probably 100 times as productive as a Chinese farmer. As China develops, So will mechanised agriculture. So hundreds of millions of Chinese farmers will stop farming and move to the cities and work in manufacturing or services and agricultures GDP contribution will get less and less till it's similar to Australia's
Agriculture will continue to decrease in importance in GDP terms, as humans can only ever eat a days worth of food, in a day, same as a thousand years ago. But as they get wealthier and wealthier, they can spend more and more on goods and services. So as mechanised agriculture gets more and more efficient and employs less people, and as the rest of industry and services gets more and more productive and employ more and more people, Ags GDP contribution naturally declines.
For agriculture in Australia to make up so much of our exports from such a low workforce is quite impressive I'd have thought. I also found your derogatory comments a bit of an insult, and showed ignorance.
See ya's.
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Unless there is some major major major (can I emphasise this strongly enough) negative exogenous factor, the AU$ WILL be dropping from current levels 93c odd, on a 3-5yr basis.
Reason:
(a) commodity prices will be falling over the next few years, especially iron.
(b) US central bank unwinding will be occurring post 2014 (if not earlier)
(c) the carry trade (higher AU interest rates vs US interest rates), will unwind as the margin decreases.
So it depends on your investment horizon.
Short term, ie months, I cannot predict.
Longer term, its quite easy.
Reason:
(a) commodity prices will be falling over the next few years, especially iron.
(b) US central bank unwinding will be occurring post 2014 (if not earlier)
(c) the carry trade (higher AU interest rates vs US interest rates), will unwind as the margin decreases.
So it depends on your investment horizon.
Short term, ie months, I cannot predict.
Longer term, its quite easy.
speaking of iron ore, what is the reason for the bearish attitude? I heard May 2013 was record chinese steel production.
http://www.mining.com/these-2-chart...w-about-iron-ore-for-the-next-20-years-70401/
http://www.mining.com/these-2-chart...w-about-iron-ore-for-the-next-20-years-70401/
on-coming supply. it takes time for these things to get off the ground, but when they do wammo.
iron ore is in plentiful supply, ie no shortage of the stuff, just a lag, in how quickly the infrastructure can get set up, from the mine, to the logistics, to the ship.
I think the point Sam Walsh was making: of the forecast supply increase, what is created in reality is minimal
