Best way to gauge "average joe" economy?

[steveadl]

I use my business as a guage, plus talking to the reps who come through my door about how the rest of the industry is doing, as well as speaking with other local owners on occasion.

Might be a small guage and not really reflective of the overall market, but then it's my little micro market that effects me and puts money in my pocket, so that's what I care about. At the moment, business is great! I don't really care if car sales are down.

 

[quoll]

... and when that runs out ...

I hope the banks start advertising equity loans again .... otherwise my customers might not have enough cash to buy more movies.

 

[lizzie]

i don't think the majority of people actually "have" less money ... i just think they're holding on to it "just in case" - either by paying down debt or building up a buffer.

sure, some are hurting bad but i believe it's more a ride-it-out sentiment.

 

[sash]

...or you could do the buys two for one deals.....people like deals in hard times even if it is a gimick....say you say you get two recent movies for $9.90...you may get more profits via a higher turnover.

I hope the banks start advertising equity loans again .... otherwise my customers might not have enough cash to buy more movies.

 

[steveadl]

We use our video shop as a gauge.

Graeme, would video shops work in the opposite direction of the economy in gloomy times? ie. if it's all doom and gloom and everyone is suffering, people trying to save money by going out less so they rent a DVD because it's something entertaining they can do cheap?

 

[pieman]

Upmarket suburbs I know real well are still selling - just. Last year you needed 1.8 for a sh!& box on a busy street, today you can buy it for <1.5. Lots of ominous trophy houses on the market, like 1 yr old 5br 2m+ houses. Why would you sell if you just built? Its a family home? people dont tend to move from those - generally its about a long term stay with kids. I'm thinking the banks are behind these....you will never know, the last thing they want in this market is a known forced sale.
That amount of $$ cant be pulled out of the sharemarket with out the exe, suburbs copping it. I know people who have done 300k+ inthe last 2 weeks. Their LOC's are copping it for the margin calls. Cash is king ATM - batten down the hatches.

ATM its the big end of town. Next year, its the Mums and Dads turn.
pieman

 

[Ajax]

I reckon my business...immigration practice...run from Sydney eastern suburbs is a pretty good barometer of the market in Sydney (willingness of employers to sponsor employees on 457 visas...future business plans etc). Had my best month in 10 years in September. Then someone turned the tap off in October...worst month so far. Everyone wants to delay lodging their applications for as long as possible...to delay paying the filing fee and my second instalment of fees. I don't think Kevin Rudd has helped by scaring the hec out of the public with a few of his announcements.

Seen it a few times before. It always begins to trickle in again. PLease...I don't want to see 1991-1992 again. That was a miserable time to be an employee. If you think lawyers a tough on each other in good times...wait until times are lean.

 

[sash]

Yep....just drive around Mosman in Sydney!....lots for sale and prices are dropping like a lead balloon.

However, there are other suburbs like Willoughby/Crows Nest where not a lot is for sale!

Cheers
Sash

Upmarket suburbs I know real well are still selling - just. Last year you needed 1.8 for a sh!& box on a busy street, today you can buy it for <1.5. Lots of ominous trophy houses on the market, like 1 yr old 5br 2m+ houses. Why would you sell if you just built? Its a family home? people dont tend to move from those - generally its about a long term stay with kids. I'm thinking the banks are behind these....you will never know, the last thing they want in this market is a known forced sale.
That amount of $$ cant be pulled out of the sharemarket with out the exe, suburbs copping it. I know people who have done 300k+ inthe last 2 weeks. Their LOC's are copping it for the margin calls. Cash is king ATM - batten down the hatches.

ATM its the big end of town. Next year, its the Mums and Dads turn.
pieman

 

[Aaron Sice]

interesting situations.

i was worried about my christmas cashflow and landed 4 big jobs in the last week.

i guess you could say that medium / large developers are still out there taking advantage of the FHB market.

everyone is talking build strata now, not survey strata, to save those precious few months with the WAPC and landgate.

as beatrix potter would say "this situation is perplexed".

 

[Peter Parker]

...or you could do the buys two for one deals.....people like deals in hard times even if it is a gimick....say you say you get two recent movies for $9.90...you may get more profits via a higher turnover.

I've noticed this in Safeway/Woolworths, with discounts for quantity rather than on single items. And the discount percentage seems to have reduced.

Eg instead of a $1.49 chocolate bar reduced to 99 cents, you'll often see '$1.49 each or 2 for $2.50'

Plus there's sometimes unusually high quantities required for the discount, not just 2; sometimes as many as 5.

 

[The Y-man]

Average Joe economy still chugging along - work colleagues still talking of upgradig plasmas/lcd to latest and greatest.

However, slight slowdown noted as recent calls for voluntary redundancies got fewer than normal responses (harder to get jobs elsewhere?)

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[Novar]

I'm surprised at how this is NOT getting talked about on main stream radio talk back. Maybe I'm not tuning in at the right time. I usually flick through the stations when I'm on the computer to see who's most interesting to listen to. I haven't come across anything bar the odd short mention.

Same in forums not finance based, threads don't seem to get traction, average joe wants to talk about the same ol same ol.

Maybe we are the crazy ones!

 

[quoll]

Graeme, would video shops work in the opposite direction of the economy in gloomy times? ie. if it's all doom and gloom and everyone is suffering, people trying to save money by going out less so they rent a DVD because it's something entertaining they can do cheap?

Seems reasonably constant, when things are going well the Average Joe would purchase more DVD / Games, instead of renting, might go to the movies and then rent the DVD once it comes out to watch again or burn it. For the demographics of the suburb they seem to have a lot of big tv's and home theatre setups.

It's just interesting to see the difference in how they pay for product.

Cheers
Graeme

 

[quoll]

Maybe we are the crazy ones!

always, and it's a nice kind of crazy.

LOL
Graeme

 

[andrew_de_a]

I'm surprised at how this is NOT getting talked about on main stream radio talk back. Maybe I'm not tuning in at the right time. I usually flick through the stations when I'm on the computer to see who's most interesting to listen to. I haven't come across anything bar the odd short mention.

Same in forums not finance based, threads don't seem to get traction, average joe wants to talk about the same ol same ol.

Maybe we are the crazy ones!

Its all they talk about on ABC radio in Melbourne

3AW also gives it some airtime

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

I live in what could best be described as an upper middle class area, where most people have large mortgages, and few seem to invest, with mostly 4-5 bedroom homes (large but not giant). However, 5 mins down the road is a working and middle class town, which is where I tend to shop for food and basics, buy petrol, etc.

Although I've noticed a few small businesses struggling in this town, Joe Average doesn't seem to be suffering. There's still plenty of takeaway food being bought, plenty of drinking in the pub, kids are still reasonably well dressed, and cars are typically less than 10 years old. I suspect this is because people still have jobs, and therefore continue to live week to week (because they don't know any other way).

I don't think Joe Average is getting really hit. Yet. I suspect as time goes on and there's less money for businesses to grow, that jobs will become an issue, and the hard times will start to set in. I don't think, though, that times will be as hard as 1991-92, simply because people seem to have more disposable income now, and not as many will be unemployed.

 

[Novar]

Its all they talk about on ABC radio in Melbourne

3AW also gives it some airtime

Average Joe doesn't listen to ABC sadly. That's why I said main stream

NOT getting talked about on main stream radio talk back

I've been listening to 3AW, not a lot, I tend to flick through searching but I will tune in more often and see what they say. Thanks

 

[Humphrey]

Jill and Joe Somersoft as an economic indicator

I wonder if usage of this forum has any correlation to the economy as a whole? My hypothesis is that the forum would be more active in boom times and less active in bust times. I guess that there would be a few different ways of determining activity - number of posts, number of users posting, number of new users.

What do people think about developing some way to track these statistics? Sim, what do you think? I've heard that you're not up to much these days and seem to spend most of your time just reading books.

Now the good folks behind Somersoft may not want to disclose the actual raw data, but this could be overcome by creating an index with a baseline value.

What do others think.

 

[steveadl]

I wonder if usage of this forum has any correlation to the economy as a whole? My hypothesis is that the forum would be more active in boom times and less active in bust times. I guess that there would be a few different ways of determining activity - number of posts, number of users posting, number of new users.

What do people think about developing some way to track these statistics? Sim, what do you think? I've heard that you're not up to much these days and seem to spend most of your time just reading books.

Now the good folks behind Somersoft may not want to disclose the actual raw data, but this could be overcome by creating an index with a baseline value.

What do others think.

Wrong. Sim's already disclosed the stats a few times recently and the forum has had some of it's busiest weeks on record in the last month or two.

 

[BayView]

I wonder if usage of this forum has any correlation to the economy as a whole?

This forum would represent a miniscule percentage of society I reckon.

This is because most people don't invest in anything, most of those who do invest are in shares, and the rest invest in property and/or shares.

I reckon if you asked 100 people on any street corner of a main street in any Aus city if they had ever heard of Jan Somers, 90 would say no...sadly.

Out of the 10 who said yes, I reckon 6 would be "gunnas" and plan to invest some day "when their life gets in order" or "when I get some money together", 4 would be regular investors and know of this forum and/or are posting on it.