Butler - now on the investment map

[sash]

Sanj

I am comparing investment potential.....I don't care about whether is is good or bad suburb only comparing whether it will return money.

Bear also in mind that suburbs change with time...some go up the prestige ladder and some down. I have seen this happen in Sydney.....it will happen in Perth also. I am not saying this will happen to Karrinyup ...have not researched this.

All I know is that the Northern Beach corridor is very popular because of its affordability and infrastructure being put in....these are the ingredients to success which I replicated over my entire portfolio....get i early and don't listne to naysayers.

Sash, you keep going through your devvy sums, no one here us disagreeing with them. We are talking about long term viability of cottage block homes 49km from Perth cbd.

I'm also not sure why you're asking for examples of top suburbs at 1000/sqm, Butler, wellard etc are in no way, shape or form top suburbs

Pls tell me you aren't actually comparing karrinyup to bloody Butler. I must surely be reading that wrong.

 

[sanj]

We'll have to agree to disagree. Long term I think people buying tiny 3x2s in Butler for 50th need their heads read and will regret their purchase. I guess we'll have to wait and see

Btw in case you missed it the first 10 times, getting in easy etc is irrelevant, I'm discussing long term viability. I think it will be a rubbish place to live in I 15 yeara

 

[sash]

That is what people told me when I invested on some of my other properties....millions in equity later....I doubt I will be changing on just looking at numbers.

John Lindeman (property researcher) has this down to an art suburbs go through cycles. As they pass throught the affordability critieria or other factors such as demographics the suburbs changes.

So yes we will need to agree to disagree....talk to some on the forum who have made dollars on Blacktown/Mt Druitt suburbs in Sydney.

Thar is gold on the ground....but you have to spot it first!

Btw in case you missed it the first 10 times, getting in easy etc is irrelevant, I'm discussing long term viability. I think it will be a rubbish place to live in I 15 yeara

 

[sanj]

Comparing to black town etc is a joke if you consider that Butler homes are selling for close to Perth medians. By the way you constantly mentioning that you have made millions is pretty tedious, calm down a bit you aren't the only person who has made money here

 

[sash]

OK.....you have heard my story and strategies...care to share yours and your successes?

I guess what I am finding in this forum ..yes there are some successful people...but a lot of people unfortunately also have very high debts.

To me like in any business...net profit (net equity) and positive cash flow are the key.

By the way...when did I say Butler was selling close to Perth medians. Perth's median is about $600k....Butler is more like $450k.

As for Blacktown being a joke...did you realise that some areas in Blacktown council have some houses selling for between $700k-$1m. I don't think that is a joke. Particularly when a few years ago these houses were struggling to get $450k?

Those Rose colored filters need to come off......

Comparing to black town etc is a joke if you consider that Butler homes are selling for close to Perth medians. By the way you constantly mentioning that you have made millions is pretty tedious, calm down a bit you aren't the only person who has made money here

 

[HiEquity]

By the way...when did I say Butler was selling close to Perth medians. Perth's median is about $600k....Butler is more like $450k.

Actually, it's $535k...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-02/perth27s-median-house-prices-break-record/5129426

That is what people told me when I invested on some of my other properties....millions in equity later....I doubt I will be changing on just looking at numbers.

The same people who made far more than you in the same timeframe? This is not meant to be a ********* contest. I'm very happy for you that you are so happy with your own financial progress but it's not at all relevant when discussing the investment merits of Butler.

Whenever anyone has challenged you on the 15 year outlook you have gone back to development margins / equity, which is not the point people are making.

In 15 years time this will be a 15 year old suburb in the middle of nowhere, a massive commute away from any worthwhile employment or services. If the best it can hope for is to become a retirement hotspot for cashed up expats who like all the mod cons, then the 15 year outlook looks terrible. It's a great place for developing - the northern extremities of Perth have always been thus. But look elsewhere for long term investing - the brand new northern extremity suburbs of Perth have always under performed for decades before their land values start to kick in again - which is only starting to happen now in Karrinyup, Carine, Duncraig, Padbury etc because the blocks are at least of a respectable size... for cottage blocks in Butler I have no idea what will drive capital growth over the next couple of decades.

 

[sash]

Each to their own......if you feel that you are correct then invest where you need to. Others on this site have taken my advice early on and have made some decent coin also....

I am investing in Butler based on numbers, infrastructure, opinions of experts like Terry Ryder and others. What would the reason for API to dedicate 3 pages..it has a balanced view not all roses....

Do whatever floats your boat mate...I personally don't care...all I am saying is that Butler was a good investment from my perspective and also offers longer term growth thats all.

Judging by the PMs I am getting ....I must not be a total idiot. As for ******* contests...it also fun to compare ...particularly for males.

Actually, it's $535k...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-02/perth27s-median-house-prices-break-record/5129426



The same people who made far more than you in the same timeframe? This is not meant to be a ********* contest. I'm very happy for you that you are so happy with your own financial progress but it's not at all relevant when discussing the investment merits of Butler.

Whenever anyone has challenged you on the 15 year outlook you have gone back to development margins / equity, which is not the point people are making.

In 15 years time this will be a 15 year old suburb in the middle of nowhere, a massive commute away from any worthwhile employment or services. If the best it can hope for is to become a retirement hotspot for cashed up expats who like all the mod cons, then the 15 year outlook looks terrible. It's a great place for developing - the northern extremities of Perth have always been thus. But look elsewhere for long term investing - the brand new northern extremity suburbs of Perth have always under performed for decades before their land values start to kick in again - which is only starting to happen now in Karrinyup, Carine, Duncraig, Padbury etc because the blocks are at least of a respectable size... for cottage blocks in Butler I have no idea what will drive capital growth over the next couple of decades.

 

[INXS]

I have lived and worked in the Butler/Jindalee area for the last 11 years and must say there is a lot of misinformation out there and prejudices from a lot of people who have not even visited the area and don't know what is driving it's growth.

Firstly people think residents only live in the area just because of affordability. This is simply untrue. Jindalee is right up there with Cottesloe and other similar areas as far as income levels and education levels achieved, Just check the latest census. Also there was a newspaper article regarding this about 6 months ago. I and my neighbours live in Jindalee for lifestyle reasons.

Secondly when people are thinking of upgrading in the Butler/Jindalee area they are not looking to move closer to the city, they are looking to build a larger house closer to the sea in the same surrounding area.

These areas are not souless. They have great community spirit. I know all of my neighbours within at least 5 houses each side and across the road. There are often community events ran by local residents associations.

Also in relation to distances I would like to correct some misinformation. It is 4.1km from Amberton Estate, Eglinton to Butler train station not 10km. It is also 13.4km from Butler to Joondalup. Talking further about distances people in the area are not concerned how far it is to Perth City. From my observation running a professional services business in the area only about 5% of residents work in the city. Thinking people need to go to the city to work is an old way of thinking. Personally when I go with my family to watch the Perth Wildcats we catch the train for free and enjoy the hassle free 33 minute train ride to the city. This applies equally to other forms of entertainment we go to Perth for. It is not a hassle.

Investment wise there are very good capital gains and equity gains to be made by buying land and building if you know what you are doing.

Example 1: Amberton Estate, Eglinton. Bank value $75k higher than cost. Rent return 6.7%. Rented last month within 4 days of being vacant. 14 applicants. Future capital gain potential?. Amberton directly next to Shorehaven Estate. Land at Shorehaven 80-100k more for same size block in Amberton. Both private Estates. Road's between both Estates will be joined in about 18 months.

Example 2: Alkimos Beach Estate, Alkimos. Land and house cost $325k, coastal side of Marmion. House will be finished in July. Real estate opinions are value around 430k....maybe more. Rent appraisal $450 a week.

There are still many opportunities like these.

OK, what is going to drive capital growth in the next 15-25-50 years. Firstly the State government has stated they will not allow coastal development after Yanchep. Therefore the value of the land on or close to the coast will go up in value due to the scarcity value. Infrastructure will be in with train line large shopping centres and entertainment precincts (All this alraedy happening). Finally population growth will outstrip other areas of Perth. Why. Immigrants arrive and settle in area. Family follows and settles in the area. Friends follow and settle in the area, and so on and so on. The domino effect is huge. I have seen it with my own eyes. Combine this with the fact that people then do not want to move out of the area and you can see what is driving the population and price growth in the area.

I am very comfortable with my decision to live and invest in this area both short and long term.

 

[sash]

You are correct ...Perth median is about $545k now but expected to hit $600k by year end!

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wes...-price-for-perth/story-fnhocxo3-1226828212706

Also went to a seminar with Property Researchers...they reckon Perth still has steam well into 2014. They indicated most of the activity will be in the affordable end of the market...htey also mentioned that Mandurah will also see pricces lifting this year.

Actually, it's $535k...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-02/perth27s-median-house-prices-break-record/5129426

QUOTE]

 

[INVSTOR]

In 15 years time this will be a 15 year old suburb in the middle of nowhere, a massive commute away from any worthwhile employment or services. If the best it can hope for is to become a retirement hotspot for cashed up expats who like all the mod cons, then the 15 year outlook looks terrible. It's a great place for developing - the northern extremities of Perth have always been thus. But look elsewhere for long term investing - the brand new northern extremity suburbs of Perth have always under performed for decades before their land values start to kick in again - which is only starting to happen now in Karrinyup, Carine, Duncraig, Padbury etc because the blocks are at least of a respectable size... for cottage blocks in Butler I have no idea what will drive capital growth over the next couple of decades.

....or maybe people can't resist slate, arches, feature brick, and fibroglass pools.

 

[sash]

Ditto Mr Hutchence.....given that you live there...the reliability of the information is pretty solid.

I agree with you on all fronts on what you have said....makes perfect sense and is accurate based on my research on the ground.

Unfortunately....I find this all the time in real estate...very people actually do the ground work - i.e. visit the suburb and research it thoroughly. I went there initially in late 2012...and thought people would be mad not to get into the areas.

The naysayers told me the same thing when I invested....despite a large increase in values...the naysayers still seem to think that Butler is a ghetto.

Do people know that Butler will rival Joondalup from a commercial precinct one day??

I have lived and worked in the Butler/Jindalee area for the last 11 years and must say there is a lot of misinformation out there and prejudices from a lot of people who have not even visited the area and don't know what is driving it's growth.

Firstly people think residents only live in the area just because of affordability. This is simply untrue. Jindalee is right up there with Cottesloe and other similar areas as far as income levels and education levels achieved, Just check the latest census. Also there was a newspaper article regarding this about 6 months ago. I and my neighbours live in Jindalee for lifestyle reasons.

Secondly when people are thinking of upgrading in the Butler/Jindalee area they are not looking to move closer to the city, they are looking to build a larger house closer to the sea in the same surrounding area.

These areas are not souless. They have great community spirit. I know all of my neighbours within at least 5 houses each side and across the road. There are often community events ran by local residents associations.

Also in relation to distances I would like to correct some misinformation. It is 4.1km from Amberton Estate, Eglinton to Butler train station not 10km. It is also 13.4km from Butler to Joondalup. Talking further about distances people in the area are not concerned how far it is to Perth City. From my observation running a professional services business in the area only about 5% of residents work in the city. Thinking people need to go to the city to work is an old way of thinking. Personally when I go with my family to watch the Perth Wildcats we catch the train for free and enjoy the hassle free 33 minute train ride to the city. This applies equally to other forms of entertainment we go to Perth for. It is not a hassle.

Investment wise there are very good capital gains and equity gains to be made by buying land and building if you know what you are doing.

Example 1: Amberton Estate, Eglinton. Bank value $75k higher than cost. Rent return 6.7%. Rented last month within 4 days of being vacant. 14 applicants. Future capital gain potential?. Amberton directly next to Shorehaven Estate. Land at Shorehaven 80-100k more for same size block in Amberton. Both private Estates. Road's between both Estates will be joined in about 18 months.

Example 2: Alkimos Beach Estate, Alkimos. Land and house cost $325k, coastal side of Marmion. House will be finished in July. Real estate opinions are value around 430k....maybe more. Rent appraisal $450 a week.

There are still many opportunities like these.

OK, what is going to drive capital growth in the next 15-25-50 years. Firstly the State government has stated they will not allow coastal development after Yanchep. Therefore the value of the land on or close to the coast will go up in value due to the scarcity value. Infrastructure will be in with train line large shopping centres and entertainment precincts (All this alraedy happening). Finally population growth will outstrip other areas of Perth. Why. Immigrants arrive and settle in area. Family follows and settles in the area. Friends follow and settle in the area, and so on and so on. The domino effect is huge. I have seen it with my own eyes. Combine this with the fact that people then do not want to move out of the area and you can see what is driving the population and price growth in the area.

I am very comfortable with my decision to live and invest in this area both short and long term.

 

[sanj]

OK.....you have heard my story and strategies...care to share yours and your successes?

I guess what I am finding in this forum ..yes there are some successful people...but a lot of people unfortunately also have very high debts.

To me like in any business...net profit (net equity) and positive cash flow are the key.

By the way...when did I say Butler was selling close to Perth medians. Perth's median is about $600k....Butler is more like $450k.

As for Blacktown being a joke...did you realise that some areas in Blacktown council have some houses selling for between $700k-$1m. I don't think that is a joke. Particularly when a few years ago these houses were struggling to get $450k?

Those Rose colored filters need to come off......

Im not getting into a p**ing contest with you, im more than secure enough in knowing where im at.

Also, you might need to do some kind of TAFE comprehension course. I never said Blacktown is a joke, i said comparing Butler to Blacktown is. What "rose coloured filters" are you referring to? Are they like rose tinted glasses only different?

You seem to be taking it personally and keep menitoning getting in early etc, why is it so difficult to understand im discussing the logn term merits of the area and not short term opportunities?

Ive re-read my posts and they certainly appear to be in English, am i missing something?

 

[sanj]

INXS- thanks for detailed post.

I got the distances via google maps, how did you get yours?

 

[sash]

Ja dast ist the problem....ma unlgish is noot goot.

Lets' agree to embrace our differences and sing Koombaya...much prefer this...rather then arguing!

I still would like to know a bit more of what you are doing...you the usual stuff what you have, strategies...that sort of stuff.

Ive re-read my posts and they certainly appear to be in English, am i missing something?

 

[INXS]

INXS- thanks for detailed post.

I got the distances via google maps, how did you get yours?

By travelling from Amberton Estate, Eglinton to Butler train station to check the actual kilometres last night.

By travelling from Butler to Joondaup to check actual distance last night.

 

[sanj]

By travelling from Amberton Estate, Eglinton to Butler train station to check the actual kilometres last night.

By travelling from Butler to Joondaup to check actual distance last night.

Ok thanks, i stand corrected.

 

[sash]

That is Gold!

Are you serious???

I think the area is really nice....have they annouced when the Alkimo station will be up by? ...has Masters broken ground yet?

By travelling from Amberton Estate, Eglinton to Butler train station to check the actual kilometres last night.

By travelling from Butler to Joondaup to check actual distance last night.

 

[HiEquity]

In 15 years time people will want some "natural materials" back in the homes, like real timber and slate etc! I'm already sick of stainless steel and glass!

Some history. My parents bought a lovely new house in Carine in the late 70s when Carine and Duncraig were pretty much the northern extremity of Perth. For pretty much the same money at the time they could have bought an old house in Cottesloe or City Beach. I don't have to explain the financial implications of that decision to anyone who knows the Perth market.

I have seen the same thing happen over and over again ever since in each new suburb on the way to Butler. Great development margin and a lovely new house each time but a comparative dog of an investment for the next 20 years.

Who knows, maybe things will all be different this time and Butler is somehow completely different to all the other suburbs between it and Perth and will suddenly become the epicentre of desirable Perth real estate? Or maybe not... Just buy for the right reasons - caveat emptor!

 

[spanna]

You can buy in Heath-ridge, Beldon, Cragie, Padbury, Mullaloo, for the same price a Butler..... and get more land ? Way closer to Joondalup, close to beach and train? You would have to be high to buy a long term investment in butler...
The (very inflated) land value makes up too small % of overall cost of purchase price? believe it or not 20 years ago Ballajura/ Marragroo ect where flash new suburbs with the latest houses and young professional family's moving into the area for the "community feel" walk around there at night now.... dare ya

 

[INVSTOR]

In 15 years time people will want some "natural materials" back in the homes, like real timber and slate etc! I'm already sick of stainless steel and glass!

Some history. My parents bought a lovely new house in Carine in the late 70s when Carine and Duncraig were pretty much the northern extremity of Perth. For pretty much the same money at the time they could have bought an old house in Cottesloe or City Beach. I don't have to explain the financial implications of that decision to anyone who knows the Perth market.

I have seen the same thing happen over and over again ever since in each new suburb on the way to Butler. Great development margin and a lovely new house each time but a comparative dog of an investment for the next 20 years.

Who knows, maybe things will all be different this time and Butler is somehow completely different to all the other suburbs between it and Perth and will suddenly become the epicentre of desirable Perth real estate? Or maybe not... Just buy for the right reasons - caveat emptor!

Yes I know where you are coming from. I'm pretty sure when I bought my newish flash house 11 years ago on 800+ sqm, where I live now, I could have bought a reno'd 60's house on around 800 sqm at Scarborough for around the same price of $300,000. Do you know if that's correct??