Gamblers, Punters ??
- Thread starter Ricardo29
- Start date
mit said:
Well said MIT. This is a distinction most people dont seem to make when they look at gambling. I know a few people who make a living solely from gambling on horse racing, and have done so for a number of years.
People make the mistake of thinking that to make money on horses, you need to be making it from the bookies or the TAB. You're not.
All you're doing is taking it from the other 98% of people who don't know what they're doing - the TAB and the bookies are simply taking a cut of turnover.
Jamie.
Monopoly said:So what does that make the ("gambling"?) addict who hangs on the hope that they are going to win it all back "in the next hand/round/pull of the lever"??? A "serial punter" perhaps.....
expectancy is simply a statistical measure of expected profit per transaction. A gambler has a negative expectancy.
Examples of negative expectancy (gambling):
All pokies, lotto, keno players
Most horse punters, share traders (e.g. take profits and let losses run)
Some property investors (e.g. buying Sydney Apartments in Dec 2003 at 2% yield hoping bubble wont burst/interest rates go up before selling)
Expectancy is based on historical performance so you either keep good records and survive long enough to develop a successful method or you get a stack of data and back test various ideas.
Being historical is of course no guarantee that the expectancy wont turn negative on you but there are ways to test robustness of a system so it is not too sensitive to a change in the particular market.
MIT
Recently I've got a bit of a poker bug - texas holdum' specifically (but very small time!).
It's quiet fun, and if you go in with the mentality of a set amount you can lose, then walk away, then any money you do lose you can write off as 'entertainment'.
I recently had a few hands with a mate and his family - the betting chips were 20c pieces.
i came out $20 up! and it was a fun night.
There are of course people who do this for $1000's per hand - not something I could handle! - I got the shakes on one hand worth $5 when i won with a bluff!
most types of gambling aren't my thing tho - I can influence the person beside me somewhat with a bit bluff and swagger in a card game, but no can do with a horse, or pokie machine for that matter.
It's quiet fun, and if you go in with the mentality of a set amount you can lose, then walk away, then any money you do lose you can write off as 'entertainment'.
I recently had a few hands with a mate and his family - the betting chips were 20c pieces.
i came out $20 up! and it was a fun night.
There are of course people who do this for $1000's per hand - not something I could handle! - I got the shakes on one hand worth $5 when i won with a bluff!
most types of gambling aren't my thing tho - I can influence the person beside me somewhat with a bit bluff and swagger in a card game, but no can do with a horse, or pokie machine for that matter.
me too shaun, just holdem tournament at a mates place 1nc a month. Negligable $. Just for fun. I noticed once I had bought a few ips my boldness at the card table went through the roof. Once you can committ to buying multple houises in areas you dont live (with research of course) a dollar or two on a card game doesnt raise a sweat anymore. So I get to enjoy heckling my buds!
I see what/ where you're coming from MIT and yes that makes sense in the world of logic, but frankly (outside the walls of rationalisations/ "expectancy" forecasts based on historical data analysis) which you and I may employ to strategise our next move, your definition affords the average (slot machine lever pulling addict) "gambler" with waaaaaaaaaay too much credit!!mit said:
Real "gamblers" are fanatics, and as such they aren't thinking that far ahead, or looking that far behind them for that matter, certainly not far enough (in either direction) to enable them to think clearly!!!
They are living strictly in the moment, right up until that last coin is fed into the slot, in the vain hope that with that next pull of the lever or push of the button bells will ring out and lights will flash before them!!! 
Have heard of "spread betting" & "arbitrage" etc, but I think that once the bookmakers get wind of these systems they come up with their own ways to put the odds back in their favour. A bit like any new car alarm that comes out. It doesn't seem to take the pro car thiefs too long to devise a way around the alarm.
I know a chap who is a "professional" gambler. That's all he does. His main game is poker and he was only a few years back considered number one in Australia and had his pic on the cover of some poker magazine (yes, they have their own magaine). He has played in tournaments all over the world and was consulted upon for movies such as Boiler Room etc. I have often debated with him that poker etc is a game of luck/chance but he swears blind that there is a lot more to it.
Waaaaay too risky for me (plus I don't have the nerve), but he seems to do very nicely.
As a sidenote; to look at, you'd never pick this bloke as someone that has "a fair bit" of $$$$
Regards
Marty
I know a chap who is a "professional" gambler. That's all he does. His main game is poker and he was only a few years back considered number one in Australia and had his pic on the cover of some poker magazine (yes, they have their own magaine). He has played in tournaments all over the world and was consulted upon for movies such as Boiler Room etc. I have often debated with him that poker etc is a game of luck/chance but he swears blind that there is a lot more to it.
Waaaaay too risky for me (plus I don't have the nerve), but he seems to do very nicely.
As a sidenote; to look at, you'd never pick this bloke as someone that has "a fair bit" of $$$$
Regards
Marty
Obvious inefficiencies in odds will disappear but remember that you are doing the opposite of the mug punter and if the bookmaker skews the odds too much he might start favouring the gambler. Most people on the site mentioned above seem to use TABs or some sort which base the odds simply on how much is bet on each horse.kissfan said:
A few of the worlds best share traders started out as poker or blackjack players. I read one guy who was a poker player and the way he played was different to the way that you or I might play. They basically fold game after game (losing a small amount each time) until they get a high probability of a winning game and then bet the max.
MIT
MIT..
uve hit the nail on the head..and gotten to the bottom of my original question, relating it to investor psychology.
i think if people learn the basics of value, probablities, statistics, odds, 'investing' when such things are in your favour, then it makes you a better money manager in general. be it shares, or property.
these should be core subjects in school, they will steer people away from 'gambling' as such, and steer them toward financial education and money management.
ive spent years and years researching, reading, learning, educating etc on probability, risk v reward, gambling systems, betting, casino games etc and think it holds me in good financial stead for 'high end' investing when the time comes.
uve hit the nail on the head..and gotten to the bottom of my original question, relating it to investor psychology.
i think if people learn the basics of value, probablities, statistics, odds, 'investing' when such things are in your favour, then it makes you a better money manager in general. be it shares, or property.
these should be core subjects in school, they will steer people away from 'gambling' as such, and steer them toward financial education and money management.
ive spent years and years researching, reading, learning, educating etc on probability, risk v reward, gambling systems, betting, casino games etc and think it holds me in good financial stead for 'high end' investing when the time comes.
Peter Spann has mentioned poker. He mentioned at the investor update that he was playing in a high stakes poker tournament recently- bluffing on a $32K hand, waiting 10 minutes for the other guy (with a better hand) to fold.kissfan said:
That's skill.
Life's like poker. You may have a good hand, or a poor hand. It's how you play the cards you have that determine if you're a winner.
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