Interest Rates

[Sunfish]

Good morning Peter.

Before I raise the real reason for this post, "As for "defending the rodent" I assume you mean Little Johnnie, so here I go." everyone knows who the lying rodent is, and frankly, I think the cap fits. I never use the term LIttle Johnnie though because it doesn't really fit and besides, I still have a little old-fashioned respect for the office of Prime Minister.

This post is more about the US alliance and your trust in it. Maybe you don't trust them especially but believe it's either the Yanks or the Chinese. Either way; The US truly believes that Canada is a state of the US and owes them total allegience and support and I believe they would threaten the Kanuks if it was their interests to do so.

Shock! Horror! This morning I got an eMail titled: The Daily Reckoning - The Great Double Cross. The body of the article contained a passage in big, bold, scarlet type:

URGENT GLOBAL RESOURCE ALERT

Think Canada Is the U.S.'s #1 Ally? Think Again.....

BACKSTABBED!

The paradox is that the Kanuks have oil and at risk of being bullied by the Yanks. We don't have the oil and I doubt they would help much if push came to shove.

America's economy is on the verge of collapse and an oil crisis could push them over the edge. "Big Oil" attacked Iraq. But they still have a mighty military machine but IMO it has been reserved for the coming resource wars.

The world is becoming a very dangerous place.

Need I say that this is a very private outlook....... Thommo

 

[Andrew_A]

I enjoy listening to a bear growl now and then as well. If you want to really darken your day then visit http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm this website covers the resource war doomsday scenario amongst many others, one doom and gloom for every day of the year if you like.

You can get caught up in this thinking too much I find, and if you do you might never invest in anything or even leave the house for fear. And if you start using the net to research (aka: confirm) your beliefs then it's amazing what you can dig up. Would it really be surpising that a well known gold spruiking website has a long position on the end of the world as we know it?

If you want a dangerous time to be alive try the world during the cuban missile crisis. Personally I don't see anything as dangerous in the world at present.

 

[Sunfish]

I was at high school during the Cuban Crisis and it was clearly the time when TWAWKI was at it's most immediate point of danger.

Did you miss the common thread though? The US and its propensity to solve problems at the end of a gun.

Being an old fart I look forward to "old timers" disease when I can forget history but in the meanwhile I do remember the hypocrisy and total selfishness of the Yanks. (They were a terrorist supporting nation for decades when they supported the IRA. Senator Kennedy no less!)

If Joe Sixpack thinks they must make war on the world to maintain their standard of living, he would expect the President to "do what's necessary".

I admire the Kiwis for their stand and do not believe they at more risk than us of being overrun from the north.

T

 

[Punchy]

Hi All
Lastly, Punchy you clearly dont like the Libs , I respect that view. Everyone has that right.

But at the risk of starting a political debate the libs are not stupid. John Howard is very smart, like him or not. Is he is so stupid how come Labour didn't wipe the floor with him?
Rant over.

Yeah I don't like the Lib's at a federal level nor their bridesmaids the Nationals (when will they represent their supporters in the bush?). If you want a real laugh I was a member of the Liberal Party when Howard got in. I handed out "how to vote cards" I feel though that his madate was to get rid of Keating. Nothing more.

I agree he is an extremely savvy politician. As for why Labor doesn't wipe the floor with him I think that the average Australian voter doesn't like change and will vote parties out as opposed to voting them in. If the economy starts going haywire then all Beazely will have to say is "their fault" and he'll be swept to office. Then in a few years Labor will play up and the cycle will start again. (and I'll be handing out how to vote cards again ) It all boils down to I don't like being lied to and expect far more from my representative than other people do (or so it seems).

 

[Punchy]

I admire the Kiwis for their stand and do not believe they at more risk than us of being overrun from the north.

T

My missus is a kiwi. Anyhow her brother is a minister for a church (yeah that's enough info). He was approached by the local candidate and asked if he'd vote. Told candidate that he was an Australian resident and couldn't vote. Asked how long he'd been here (14 years) "You should become a citizen!" My future brother in law said "My family go overseas to X, Y and Z on a regular basis with the church. If you can assure me that I will be safer travelling on an Australian passport than a New Zealand one I will apply today"

Local member "I see your point." and walked away.

Look at how the Aust gov't cuts us loose when we run into trouble overseas. It's disgusting. GRRRR

 

[Peter 14.7]

Yeah I don't like the Lib's at a federal level nor their bridesmaids the Nationals (when will they represent their supporters in the bush?). If you want a real laugh I was a member of the Liberal Party when Howard got in. I handed out "how to vote cards" I feel though that his madate was to get rid of Keating. Nothing more.

I agree he is an extremely savvy politician. As for why Labor doesn't wipe the floor with him I think that the average Australian voter doesn't like change and will vote parties out as opposed to voting them in. If the economy starts going haywire then all Beazely will have to say is "their fault" and he'll be swept to office. Then in a few years Labor will play up and the cycle will start again. (and I'll be handing out how to vote cards again ) It all boils down to I don't like being lied to and expect far more from my representative than other people do (or so it seems).

Hi Punchy

Thats is a very fair and reasonable comment. We should be able to expect honesty however IMO any politicial who is honest gets abused and voted out.

Pauline Hanson was honest in telling what many think ( including me) about the real state of aboriginal affairs and funding. That is it is wasted and doing lettle real good to imprve thier lot.

She got called a racist. But in my books the greater racist is the confortable white high income earner who cries racists at dinner parties yet would never employ an aboriginal or volunteer to work in Redfern or support with $$ a program to help educate black youth away from crime or encourage affordable housing for aboriginals to be developed in thier street as a way break the cycle of ghettos.

Essentially many of us are, sadly, NIMBY, when it comes to it and only an event like the Tsnami can shock us into action and opening our wallets.

Peter 147

 

[Peter 14.7]

I was at high school during the Cuban Crisis and it was clearly the time when TWAWKI was at it's most immediate point of danger.
T

Being a young timer what is TWAWKI?

Regards, Peter 147

 

[keithj]

Being a young timer what is TWAWKI?

The world as we know it.

 

[Ronulas]

At the risk of getting my own neck chopped off here I thought I maght add my 2c worth.

I believe that no matter what the US does, it will never be right!

As the leading superpower of the world most everybody expects them to fight for democracy, right the wrongs of the world ect ect ect.

On the other hand when they do take the lead and do just that they are accused of being bullies, tyrants and dictarorial.

They are also expected to put themselves last, be fair in the way they fight and somehow achieve perfection in their political agenda.

Why should the USA not look after their own political agenda? Does anyone berate Australia for looking after it's own political interests?

I believe that the US sees Iraq (and many other countries) as a haven for terrorists that will not hesitate to cause mass destruction if it finds the ability.

What is the point in having the strengh if you never use it? I aggree that the US does pick its fights where it will most benifet itself. Why not? Are we as individuals any better? If your house and the neighbours house was on fire and both famillies were inside, which house would you choose to put out first?
YOUR OWN. Then you would try to help the neighbour out.

People expect the USA to be pure and right. Why? I think that the US is relativly reserved and responsible as the superpower in todays world. do you see the rest of the world doing anything? What does Eurpope, besides England do? Nothing.

IMHO I would rather take leadership under the US banner than some of the alternatives like China, Russia, North Korea or any of the Arab nations. At least their way of life, religeous convictions, moral codes ect are similar to ours.

As for John Howard. I like him. He is a good leader, that has the balls to make changes that may not make him popular eg the GST but do better the country. He is in tune with the people and has no doubt made this country strong. John Howard sees the big picture, and is privy to things we do not know about.

Don't take my word for it. Take the word of the majority of the country!

 

[quiggles]

Ah Ronulas,

Your faith in the existing order is both touching and admirable. The reasons I don't agree are simple.

1. The US, as you correctly point out, will always be wrong in some peoples' books and as you again correctly point out their reasons will be wrong. The actual reason is that the US is too big a megalith to run properly at all, much less as a federation, much less with democaratic self intrest at every level. The US is not too evil to be right, it is too incompetent.

2. Howard suffered from reform fatigue in 2000 and has done nothing since except coast on the decade and a half of large Labor surpluses and spend them up just before every election time so that Labor can't make responsible promises. Canny yes, ballsy no.

 

[MichaelW]

A minor point on our relations with other countries, as raised by Acey in the context of the Timor sea gas and oil reserves. We had an agreement with East Timor that the reserves would be split 50/50%.

As it was of dubious heritage and at their request, we tore it up and agreed that they could have 90% and help to develop it. So an idiot son of a famous father argued that we were being greedy and should hand over the lot to East Timor and pay compensation, presumably for heading up Interfet while the East Timorese gained independence.

So the Sunrise consortium said "Not interested, thanks - we don't want to be in the middle of a political punch up" and withdrew their multibillion dollar program. To the obvious benefit of the East Timorese.

Quiggles,

I agree with 90% of what you post, but I'm not sure I can let this one past without at least asking the question on accuracy...

My understanding is that Australia "freed" East Timor from Indonesia and then, in the euphoria that followed signed a 50/50 split agreement based on the old definition of maritime boundaries based on the "mid-point" between land masses. Of course, this definition is now defunct so Australia immediately withdrew from the International Maritime Court so that they couldn't be persued in this forum. The new definition of maritime boundaries is the "continental divide" which in this case puts the boundary much closer to East Timor and results in the 90/10 or so split. East Timor complained about Australia's stealing of their resources to the Maritime Court and the decision has recently been upheld in favour of the Timorise. Greater Sunrise see this big blue playing out in the courts and walk away. Australia is still refusing to now recognise the authority of the court and are trying to stick to the 50/50 split they first devised...

Anyway, that's my understanding from my wife who is a member of the NSW Law Society and an active member of the environmental law sub-group. I might be mis-quoting her or getting the facts a little screwed, but the gist of the story is the same:

We saw an opportunity to profit significantly from military intervention in East Timor. We took it, signed the contract and then tried to hold a poor developing country to it, against the ruling of the international maritime court. Basically, we did a Dubya, and went to war for personal profit. At least we managed to drag the UN along with us and didn't have to go it all alone.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[Punchy]

As for John Howard. I like him. He is a good leader, that has the balls to make changes that may not make him popular eg the GST but do better the country. He is in tune with the people and has no doubt made this country strong. John Howard sees the big picture, and is privy to things we do not know about.

Don't take my word for it. Take the word of the majority of the country!

Don't know about you but just because the majority of the country think he's cool doesn't mean that he is.

Yes he is in tune with the people. That's why he does so well in polls. Again, going with popular opinion isn't necesarily the hallmark of a strong leader. How much political intestinal fortitude does it take to ban gun ownership in the light of a massacre (IMO why wasn't the argument centered around mental health issues) at Port Arthur? Tsunami - he quickly saw that government contributions were going to pale against private donations so he quickly gave more (first amount was $10 million. To be fair though the first contribution was made before the full extent of the tradgedy was known). There was no real risk in sending a volunteer army off to war. If we still had the draft there would be a big difference.

Short of bringing in the GST I can't see examples of his economic management. Don't bring up the FTA though. Somehow I can't imagine that dismantling protective measures between the world's largest economy and us is a good thing. Economies of scale and all that.

I agree with your points regarding the US. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. The end point is that we are seeing the decline of the US as the world superpower. Perhaps they'll end up like the UK. Influential but not like they once were.

I am not sure who I would prefer to be the big kahuna in the world. Although I feel we'd better get used to seeing a lot more from china.

 

[Ronulas]

Ah Ronulas,

Your faith in the existing order is both touching and admirable. The reasons I don't agree are simple.

1. The US, as you correctly point out, will always be wrong in some peoples' books and as you again correctly point out their reasons will be wrong. The actual reason is that the US is too big a megalith to run properly at all, much less as a federation, much less with democaratic self intrest at every level. The US is not too evil to be right, it is too incompetent.

Well as this is a fairly vauge statement there is not much to debate

2. Howard suffered from reform fatigue in 2000 and has done nothing since except coast on the decade and a half of large Labor surpluses and spend them up just before every election time so that Labor can't make responsible promises. Canny yes, ballsy no.

Thats funny as I don't ever remember the Labor Surpluses at all. I must remember to ring Mr Beazly and ask for my share.
Also, I thought most of the surpluses came from the introduction of a GST which Labor said they would roll back if ever voted into power. My memories of the Labor government stops at %18 interest rates, high un-employment. And the fact that they must resurrect an old dinosour like Beazly is a sad indication of their leadership. I am in the forces and was when Beazly was Defence minister. His way of making a surplus is to cut Defence budgets to the bone and make everybody do the work or 3.
If they actually came up with an original idea instead of slanging off at Howards's then I might actually take them seriously.

 

[Punchy]

I am in the forces and was when Beazly was Defence minister. .

Yeah that was funny. I recall seeing him in Fatigues. Looked real out of place and word was that they were made especially for his generous figure

The defence forces are easy to screw over as we have been real lucky to have lived in relatively peaceful times. Wasn't the end of the Vietnam war to East Timor the longest period of peace in Australia's history?

Back onto Interest Rates for a second. I still say that they will go up considerably. 10% is still my call but not for a while yet (remember that a mortgage is usually for 25 years so people will see it)

 

[Ronulas]

Don't know about you but just because the majority of the country think he's cool doesn't mean that he is.

Yes he is in tune with the people. That's why he does so well in polls. Again, going with popular opinion isn't necesarily the hallmark of a strong leader. How much political intestinal fortitude does it take to ban gun ownership in the light of a massacre (IMO why wasn't the argument centered around mental health issues) at Port Arthur? Tsunami - he quickly saw that government contributions were going to pale against private donations so he quickly gave more (first amount was $10 million. To be fair though the first contribution was made before the full extent of the tradgedy was known). There was no real risk in sending a volunteer army off to war. If we still had the draft there would be a big difference.

Short of bringing in the GST I can't see examples of his economic management. Don't bring up the FTA though. Somehow I can't imagine that dismantling protective measures between the world's largest economy and us is a good thing. Economies of scale and all that.

I agree with your points regarding the US. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. The end point is that we are seeing the decline of the US as the world superpower. Perhaps they'll end up like the UK. Influential but not like they once were.

I am not sure who I would prefer to be the big kahuna in the world. Although I feel we'd better get used to seeing a lot more from china.

That's the thing, Howard does not do what is popular. The GST, Illegal Immegration, FTA, War in Iraque. None of these things were very popular and yet he still did them and still managed to get re-elected. He is popular because he does what he thinks is right regardless of popularity. I for one want someone in Gov who can think for themselves and does not just try and protect his job. All these issues were makers or breakers. I think they made Howard popular because people reckognised his intestinal fortitude

I disagree about the drafted army statement. A volunteer Defence force does not make a difference. Those of us defence members have moms and dads and familly who all vote. If it was that unpopular then you can bet your ass howard would not be there now. Especially with Lathum's statement about pulling our troops out befor Christmas!

How can you not be sure who you would rather see as the big kahuna in the world!!! I don't fancy talking Chinese or being told how many children I can have. Do You??????

 

[Aceyducey]

How can you not be sure who you would rather see as the big kahuna in the world!!! I don't fancy talking Chinese or being told how many children I can have. Do You??????

Well actually I find making comments on language a fair bit racist....After all why doesn't Australia have an Aboriginal language as it's national language....and the US chose English over German by one vote (after the war of independence they were down on all things English).

Being told how many children I can have - well given the carrying capacity of our world and the number of people, I don't see that as a bad thing either.


I'm a little disappointed Ronulas, up until these bits I agreed with much of what you were saying.

The US does act in what it believes is it's best interests - so do the European states, so does Russia, China, Australia, etc.

Self-interest is a key part of sovereignty.

I also believe that the US is held up to double standards by much of the rest of the world - and much of the US population as well.

However, I also thing that's the burden a superpower must bear. England was in a similar boat in the 19th Century, as was Rome way back when.

As to US incompetence - well really...is the US any more incompetent than any other large state? I don't think so....Australians just like pointing it out because it makes us feel superior.

Tall poppy syndrome anyone?

For the US to take any action requires courage, because whatever it does it will alienate or upset a good proportion of the world. Australia is lucky because we are, in the immortal words of Douglas Adams, regarded as 'Mostly harmless'.

Asides from being able to overbear a couple of small south Pacific Island nations, no-one really takes us seriously enough to worry about most of what we decide.

That makes it a whole lot easier for us to make decisions without worrying about the ramifications.

And there's too much 'US this, US that' that goes on. Most people in the US are decent human beings who care about their families - just like in China, Russia, North Korea and Iceland. People are people - don't judge them all by the decisions their leaders make.

Make individual US citizens afraid to travel, humiliate them when they visit other countries and otherwise ostracise them due to the decisions of their leaders & in short order we'll see a slide towards a much more uncaring USA. This is bad for everyone.

Don't exclude people who should be in the dialogue. Include them and befriend them. Make them understand the personal costs of the decisions of their leaders. That's how you encourage positive political reform.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[MichaelW]

How can you not be sure who you would rather see as the big kahuna in the world!!! I don't fancy talking Chinese or being told how many children I can have. Do You??????

Ronulas,

Thankfully that question is moot, as the US is in its death throws as we speak. We are watching the ultimate demise of the ugly behemoth. That's the one small solace I take at times like this when the strong and beligerent feel they can rule the world through might and not through consenus achieved via multilateral dialogue.

Oh, and BTW, little Johnnie never had an original thought in his life. He's just a mouth piece for the US in the Asia/Pac region. I'll concede the GST (the one time I actually voted liberal), but beyond that the other decisions were hardly makers or breakers. Its easy to talk up the evil immigrants to rally the masses around nationalism and the flag. Unfortunately, most of the population still thinks that communism is evil and that China is a bad thing. I have worked extensively in the Asia/Pacific region, including China, and can say with honesty that I would prefer a world dominated by eastern culture over one dominated by US pop culture. Asia is a lot more family oriented with considerable respect for their elders. They also tend to see the big picture and think in the long term, which is why the PRC originally adopted their socially responsible one child policy. The US on the other hand have declared multilateralism as dead and have argued that they will go it alone to create the world in their image. Dubya has stated that he considers this to be a "war to the end between two opposing world views" and that if the USA can't win then he'll make sure the other side doesn't! When asked how he thought history would judge him, in typical short-sighted myopia he responded "Who cares, I'll be dead by then!".

FWIW, I can't wait to see the US implode and be replaced by any other power that at least sees the world as populated by multiple nations and cultures, and one that is willing to engage them all multilaterally and be tolerant of differences.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and I respect yours, its just that mine happen to be polarly opposite to those espoused by yourself in this instance.

Cheers,
Michael.

PS. I'm ex defence forces too. Just couldn't stand hanging around all the sword rattling, far right neo-conservatives any more so bailed out when they threated to promote me to Major.

 

[Sunfish]

I believe that no matter what the US does, it will never be right!
Fair enough.

As the leading superpower of the world most everybody expects them to fight for democracy, right the wrongs of the world ect ect ect.
I don't. They are meddelsome fools and make more problems than they solve.

Why should the USA not look after their own political agenda? Does anyone berate Australia for looking after it's own political interests?
Most nations don't invade others, justified by self interest.

I believe that the US sees Iraq (and many other countries) as a haven for terrorists that will not hesitate to cause mass destruction if it finds the ability.
And the US is safer now? Note: The US was a rogue state supporting terrorism for decades. Without their active assistance the IRA would have withered and died.

What is the point in having the strengh if you never use it?
So if you met John Hopoate in the street you'd accept it he head butted you and stuck his finger up your bum?

I've had enough. The rest of the post was rubbish too.

Thommo

 

[MichaelW]

Make individual US citizens afraid to travel, humiliate them when they visit other countries and otherwise ostracise them due to the decisions of their leaders & in short order we'll see a slide towards a much more uncaring USA. This is bad for everyone.

Don't exclude people who should be in the dialogue. Include them and befriend them. Make them understand the personal costs of the decisions of their leaders. That's how you encourage positive political reform.

Acey,

Couldn't agree more! Just got back from 5 weeks holiday in Africa and met a very diverse group of people from all over the world, inculding the USA. I was always careful to differentiate my views of the current neo-conservative far right republican government from those of US citizens on the whole. In fact I met quite a few US citizens that I have given my contact details to and a promise of a steak if they ever end up in Sydney.

Good post,
Michael.

 

[Punchy]

I disagree about the drafted army statement. A volunteer Defence force does not make a difference. Those of us defence members have moms and dads and familly who all vote. If it was that unpopular then you can bet your ass howard would not be there now. Especially with Lathum's statement about pulling our troops out befor Christmas!

How can you not be sure who you would rather see as the big kahuna in the world!!! I don't fancy talking Chinese or being told how many children I can have. Do You??????

In a drafted army people would pay a lot more attention to what our military does because one day they just may be personally involved.

We aren't on the US governments s**t list and subsequently haven't felt their wrath. Makes it easier to be objective. Doesn't mean that they are right.

I like that posters are able to seperate the state from the people. IMO the average person just wants to get on with their life. Maslow's hierarchy of needs and all that ..... I can't imagine that the average person in Iowa is thinking "geeze I wish we could scr3w over some people who live in abject poverty so my coffee is 10cents cheaper" nor do I think the average Afghan sat around the dinner table saying "gee whizz. What can I do tommorow to stick it to those infidels in New York?"

As for the government telling you how many kids you can have. At least the Chinese were honest about it. For what it is worth you can have as many kids as you like in China. The thing is that after one child it becomes financial suicide to have another...... sort of like here? The average number of births per Australian woman is now 1.76. That is, without immigration our population would be declining.