Is Australia facing an economic downturn/recession?

[Intrinsic_Value]

time will tell, but right now i have 10% of my assets sitting in the worst possible asset class according to you guys: US$, thats just US$, not stocks, just the pure currency that everyone is bagging.

Its waiting for an opportunity to be deployed, but at this point in time i'm happy to just have some money in US$ accumulating a pathetic 0.25% interest.

 

[INVSTOR]

OK, I've been waiting for someone else to ask, but,

WTF does TEOTWAWKI stand for?
Best I could come up with is,

Total Economic Obliveration To Wack Australia While Kicking Idiots.

ROFLMFAO...


See ya's.

I'm glad someone else didn't know what it meant. I thought he was swearing in Maori language or something!?

 

[mrmonopoly]

Teotwawki

Could this be the most depressingly pessimistic thread ever?

Thankfully its all irrelevant seeing as the world is coming to an end at 6pm today anyway

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/end-of-the-world-is-very-nigh-indeed-2287185.html

It was nice knowing you lol

 

[Aaron Sice]

No not at all.

I guess some people like to bury their heads In the sand for the bad news and break out the hedge clippers in good times.

 

[Andrew_A]

Could this be the most depressingly pessimistic thread ever?

Thankfully its all irrelevant seeing as the world is coming to an end at 6pm today anyway

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/end-of-the-world-is-very-nigh-indeed-2287185.html

It was nice knowing you lol

It's a very profitable business this end of the world idea, talking 10's of millions a year in funding from believers I think, wonderful edge to actually have a fixed date rather than just an 'end of the world is near' sign to wave around.

No harm moving the date and presenting a plausible excuse after the fact, been done that way for millennia. The actually EOTW would be bad for business after all!

 

[Indifference]

Why wouldn't it? Fiat currency crash has happened before, and will again. The value of the US dollar going to virtually zero is a function of their doing precisely what the weimar republic and zimbabwe did. It's just a logical extension of action

Ahhh.... don't you recognize my sarcasm?

I was actually laughing AT the stupidity of it all....it is the collective consciousness of ignorance that repeats time and time again. Of course the USD is in dire straits..... and yes, it isn't the first currency, nor the last to suffer such a fate.

I trust that clears up my position on the subject.

 

[Indifference]

Have you seen the "Debt Clock" or gone to shadow stats dot com? US debt is already on it's way to infinity.

Well, yes I have..... and I laugh every time I see it!

As for US debt, I have stated this before:

If the US stopped deficit spending today AND starting paying $100 Million off the debt EVERY DAY, it would take them 392 years to pay off the debt!!!

Oh yes, I am well aware of the plight of the US economy and the USD... I live in the US and see tell tale signs every day!

None of this is good for Australia by the way, as it will represent a strategic rethink.... I am not convinced our current political leaders are up to that challenge!!!

 

[hobo-jo]

We may just end up in recession sooner than most here think... 73% here have voted that we won't see recession... should have made votes public

The ABS on Wednesday will release March quarter construction work figures, an input into GDP, and Mr James said it was probably weaker due to falls in retail spending.

"There's not many positives out there in terms of GDP and it does look as though the economy did contract about 0.3 of a percentage point," he said.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8252123

 

[Sunfish]

The poll says >60% of respondents expect a "slight downturn" at best.

A simple question: If you could sell part or all of your portfolio at a cost of 0.10% tomorrow, would you take the opportunity to "lighten up" and live to fight another day?

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

The poll says >60% of respondents expect a "slight downturn" at best.

A simple question: If you could sell part or all of your portfolio at a cost of 0.10% tomorrow, would you take the opportunity to "lighten up" and live to fight another day?

yes definately, so long as the price was at around current market prices. If the further commentary to this is no you have to take whatever the bidder gives you, then on low volume i would say no, happy to hold.

 

[bluestorm]

A simple question: If you could sell part or all of your portfolio at a cost of 0.10% tomorrow, would you take the opportunity to "lighten up" and live to fight another day?

Definately. But given the real buy and sell cost are much higher, the best stategy for the near future is to have low LVR heading in and ride out what is coming.

 

[Kanemicm]

best advice

I recently attended a briefing session by Tenzing Property they collect information from Oliver Hume Research.

I suggest anyone curious about the market take a look.

 

[Aaron Sice]

The poll says >60% of respondents expect a "slight downturn" at best.

A simple question: If you could sell part or all of your portfolio at a cost of 0.10% tomorrow, would you take the opportunity to "lighten up" and live to fight another day?

bl00die oath.

 

[Sunfish]

bl00die oath.

Easy-peasy with a share portfolio. I have oft said that I like to dance close to the exits.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Easy-peasy with a share portfolio. I have oft said that I like to dance close to the exits.

easy peasy so long as its a big cap share portfolio. Mid cap and especially small cap, not so easy. Especially in this market where trading volumes are lower.
Its still difficult moving lines of stock of say $100,000 in companies with a $0.5billion market cap without effecting both market pricing and market sentiment (too many people making decisions based on short term pricing trends, off load too much stock too fast and the trend is effected)

 

[Sunfish]

Be nice IV. Give me a little credit for knowing the market. The most I've ever had in that size stock is $20 k and that is a trading position I watch like a hawk.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Be nice IV. Give me a little credit for knowing the market. The most I've ever had in that size stock is $20 k and that is a trading position I watch like a hawk.

sorry mate, maybe some of my own frustration showing, in that i have several positions which i am trying to 'delicately' reduce exposure to.

This market doesnt take prisoners, and one needs to be a step ahead which is not easy.

 

[DanielG]

The USA is a military power that is funded by what....money. Does the USA have money? Yes, printed money, borrowed money...any surplus from their own productivity? No.

Read a book on the fall of Rome...the parallels are uncanny. No country can invade the US, but they will unwittingly destroy themselves. I don't want that to happen...for all the negative things I can say about the USA, compared to the nations that are the next on the succession line...it scares me to death. Imagine China becomes the dominant superpower, I think Australia is in BIG trouble.

As for Australia heading into recession? Well, if the RBA participates in the debasing or devaluing of the AUD, then no, I think we can avoid it. However, if the AUD stays past parity for another few months, I guarantee you we will get there before the end of the year. Ofcourse, devaluing the dollar will send energy and food prices even higher...its all so complicated

 

[DanielG]

Excellent article

http://www.********************/forum/topic/9515-will-the-rba-step-in-to-douse-the-dollar/

 

[bluestorm]

sorry mate, maybe some of my own frustration showing, in that i have several positions which i am trying to 'delicately' reduce exposure to.

This market doesnt take prisoners, and one needs to be a step ahead which is not easy.

Hey Intrinsic, maybe you should have taken my advise nearly 3 weeks ago. I'm loving the market now. The volatility is excellent for short term gains while people panic to the exits.

07/05 - "sell in May and go away"

I think the "sell in May and go away" with shares saying will start to be seen, and as share prices fall, the market will see the "safety" of the US dollar. The $A I think will fall back.

Also, having correctly timed the Portugal bailout, I'm now watching Spain as the next PIIGS domino to fall in Dec 2011/Jan 2012.
Spain 10yr bonds