I was interested in the forum views of the Sydney suburban market (for those who have taken an active interest in the Sydney Market).
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oceangirl said:I am also interested AL in what happened in the Japanese market, how it went from boom to bust, what accounted for that, and my question to seasoned investors and economists/economic historians on the forum is "What are the differences between what happened there and what could happen here?"
Oceangirl
oceangirl said:Also, Hong Kong had a similar property frenzy for a while, and then it sagged severely, and other countries as well.
Oceangirl
Mr Turkey said:Another example was 1929 to 1932 where property lost most of its value. People sometimes walked away because of property taxes. Gold was money then.
Mr Turkey
Turkey,Mr Turkey said:Eventually either property goes down or the unit of measurement (dollar) goes down.
Oceangirl,oceangirl said:It would be interesting to hear ideas on what forces people think might quarantine Australia, (and Sydney obviously), from similar effects?
Aceyducey said:Turkey,
If this was the case it would be the logical conclusion that it is impossible to make money from property.
Well sorry, many of us have.
From which you derived (using invalid reasoning) your straw man statement:Aceyducey said:Look back at your post - you stated unequivocably that either property prices go down or the unit of measurement goes down. That was YOUR statement.
And that's the one you set up to knock down this this statement:Aceyducey said:If this was the case it would be the logical conclusion that it is impossible to make money from property.
Aceyducey said:Well sorry, many of us have.
Aceyducey said:Maybe a misunderstanding though - what do you mean by that statement?
Mr Turkey said:That is clearly a straw man. You have been caught out.
Turkey,Mr Turkey said:Many times someone says something like "Property prices tend to shoot up and plateau. Then inflation catches up."? I have seen it on this forum. The statement that "Eventually either property goes down or the unit of measurement (dollar) goes down." is another way of saying it. "the unit of measurement (dollar) goes down" is linked to inflation. However my statement also allows for the possibility of the currency not going down. Instead asset prices can deflate.
Consider if people expect property prices to plateau how much currency devaluation (inflation) is being priced into the market and over what time frame is it expected to occur.
Lots of incentives!!!not a sheep said:IMHO what incentive is there?
BV said:I don't know about Japan but in Hong Kong
prices dropped because people were leaving after the Chineese took over.
HISTORY
If we look at the last boom in Sydney, property prices dropped a little at
the high end and we saw a plateau before prices took off again.
Remember that this happened in an environment where the interest
rates had skyrocketed and the banks were auctioning people's homes.
CURRENT MARKET
The fundamentals are not the same now.
The interest rates are low and are predicted to stay low.
Having said that, the recent state government changes
can mean trouble for some investors, they will also stop others from
investing and lack of investors will affect the number of future developments
and possibly rents.
In view of the new legislation I am suspecting that the very expensive
properties (over 1 Mil) will drop a little and that the properties below
500K will increase in value due to increased/continuous demand.
If that happens, then the prices of properties above 500K will be pushed up
and we will probably see a more levelled property market right across Sydney.
John,JFEWSTER said:don't pull this post like you did the last GeoffW- let the comments speak for themselves