25bp either Nov or Dec.
november interest rate thread
- Thread starter boz
- Start date
lol but then the RBA would be predictionary not reactionary and that's too much for any govt body to handle.
Steady she goes
The RBA have predictably moved early on rates - even before (worsening) employment figures expected Thursday. This is likely a pre-emptive signal that Captain Stevens is not asleep at the wheelhouse and is mindful of the possibility of a FHB Boost induced housing bubble and avoids further rate hikes until after the festive season.
Cheers
[email protected]
The RBA have predictably moved early on rates - even before (worsening) employment figures expected Thursday. This is likely a pre-emptive signal that Captain Stevens is not asleep at the wheelhouse and is mindful of the possibility of a FHB Boost induced housing bubble and avoids further rate hikes until after the festive season.
Cheers
[email protected]
That's why my opinion is offered for free.
isnt this a contradiction? putting rates up whilst unemployment worsens is being asleep at the wheel
what I take from this is a very strong signal that we are heading back to good times
All the warning signals have been out there for a while now,the RBA would have up too the minute data,unlike the normal person in the street who finds out three months down the track what's happening in the real world
if the real numberS come out on unemployment-then little ruddy would be very worried,but that's not going to happen be prepared for the next rate rise this time next month,all those people that bought into any of the top
end banks for $24,$17,$6.88 low range prices would be laughing now they took the risk when everyone thought the world was about to end..
..once the ASX5000 mark is broken again greed will overtake fear..JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER TIME..
..willair..
All the warning signals have been out there for a while now,the RBA would have up too the minute data,unlike the normal person in the street who finds out three months down the track what's happening in the real world
if the real numberS come out on unemployment-then little ruddy would be very worried,but that's not going to happen be prepared for the next rate rise this time next month,all those people that bought into any of the top
end banks for $24,$17,$6.88 low range prices would be laughing now they took the risk when everyone thought the world was about to end..
once the ASX5000 mark is broken again greed will overtake fear..JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER TIME..
..willair..
well, over 90% of economists (expert like RBA people) didn't expect a rate rise yesterday, it make me wonder who knows what is happening in the real world.
None in 2007 was expecting what happen last year, I don't see ANY of fundamental out today that is better then 2007 and that can prevent a new GFC like last year
I think we need a new poll based on the rate cut yesterday... I for one would like to change my "no change" to +.25%.
All debate aside about whether or not they should, I now think we will see another rise in November and then take December and January off to see what the result was.
Then most likely back into it in February.
All debate aside about whether or not they should, I now think we will see another rise in November and then take December and January off to see what the result was.
Then most likely back into it in February.
most of the private sector banking economists are spending their time trying to work out what the RBA will do. They have access to similar material and so try to guess the RBA's decision.
Thus it doesnt indicate that private economists do not justify the RBA's decision, only that they didnt guess correctly.
An interesting theory (and prediction) of interest rates:
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupda...Control-Central-Banks-and-Interest-Rates.aspx
To my opinion "they" (rba & govt) would prefer to face the next leg down in the crisis from higher rate levels, so they can drop them drastically again like they did at the end of 2008.
My punt - swiftly and steadily up to 5.5%~6% so they can drop them down to 2% when needed.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupda...Control-Central-Banks-and-Interest-Rates.aspx
To my opinion "they" (rba & govt) would prefer to face the next leg down in the crisis from higher rate levels, so they can drop them drastically again like they did at the end of 2008.
My punt - swiftly and steadily up to 5.5%~6% so they can drop them down to 2% when needed.
In my opinion, the rate rise was predictable because the RBA likes to shock. It has down this before.
In fact, RBA does not like to move up or down at all, but tell us all it has a "big stick" and sometimes you have to hit with that stick to remind everyone you still have it.
Once rises are common this effect is lessened. Like when rates went down we all were in awe at first, then at they continued we stop talking about it.
I am suprised they did not go 0.5% but I think Politics got in the road. There was no way it could raise rates (which would 180 degree opposed to) whilst we had boosted FHO grants.
Peter
In fact, RBA does not like to move up or down at all, but tell us all it has a "big stick" and sometimes you have to hit with that stick to remind everyone you still have it.
Once rises are common this effect is lessened. Like when rates went down we all were in awe at first, then at they continued we stop talking about it.
I am suprised they did not go 0.5% but I think Politics got in the road. There was no way it could raise rates (which would 180 degree opposed to) whilst we had boosted FHO grants.
Peter
Unemployment is still rising so they are taking an easy, gradual approach. They dont want to blow it.
Its a tricky balancing act and i think they are doing a pretty good job. Tho, they overdid the stimulus, FHBG etc a bit. I think that surprised a lot of people.
Its a funny thing, rising interest rates and rising unemployment. Interesting times we are in.
Its a tricky balancing act and i think they are doing a pretty good job. Tho, they overdid the stimulus, FHBG etc a bit. I think that surprised a lot of people.
Its a funny thing, rising interest rates and rising unemployment. Interesting times we are in.
Because it's often referred to as a 'blunt instrument' the RBA moves are generally done a bit too late. No fault of their own, it's just that the economy is such a huge beast with massive momentum, it takes time to turn it around from one direction to another. And takes time for enough data to come in to make a decision.
That's why I think RBA has done well to move this time, because it 'seems' premature, it's probably more at the correct time than most moves are.
That's why I think RBA has done well to move this time, because it 'seems' premature, it's probably more at the correct time than most moves are.
Don't forget low CPI as well (zero% increase in the last 2 months), seems RBA is targeting something else that is not quite clear what it is...
The RBA is targeting the circumstances they expect to encounter in the future. Unemployment is what happened 3 months ago, & is therefore irrelevant. Consumer & business confidence, retail sales, house prices, car sales, stock market, job advertisements, lending, bond yields, building approvals are all pointing towards a much stronger economic environment. I can't think of any leading indicators that aren't positive. Starting to raise IRs early is more likely to mean a lower peak in this cycle - that must be a good thing.Don't forget low CPI as well (zero% increase in the last 2 months), seems RBA is targeting something else that is not quite clear what it is...
Gold has gone well over $1000, some interpret this as people worrying about inflation. The RBAs job is to target inflation.
And of course, there is still the potential for external shocks that are out of the RBAs control.
The RBA is targetting First Home Buyer Bubble fearful that many who cannot afford a home and buying regardless. It happened in 2004 with rate rises many selling a few years later for break even or worst. This time the risk is greater.
I dont agree everything is point in up Kieth. New cars sales are still sluggish and hours worked dropping. Less hours means less demand. I still belive we are yet to see the tail off of the stimulus money and what that means to GDP.
RBA is trying to get ahead of the pack which is a good thing. Expect another in nov and then none for 3 months until Feb is my call.
Peter
I dont agree everything is point in up Kieth. New cars sales are still sluggish and hours worked dropping. Less hours means less demand. I still belive we are yet to see the tail off of the stimulus money and what that means to GDP.
RBA is trying to get ahead of the pack which is a good thing. Expect another in nov and then none for 3 months until Feb is my call.
Peter
Sluggish, but positive (ABS 9314.0), especially in the context of the stimulus that finished the previous month. The previous 15 months sales were -ve. Figures for Sept are due on 21st......
Agreed, but it's a trailing indicator.
When did the stimulus end ? Over 3 months ago ? Surely, it's well & truly tailed off by now ?
What data will convince you that the economy is looking stronger, and that except for 'external shocks', growth will return to average sooner rather than later ?
LESS WORK HOURS
Agreed, but it's a trailing indicator.
QUOTE]
I would say that it is leading. As people have fewer hours at first they spend as is, then when the credit cards come in, they tighten the belts. Until we see stats saying hours are returning then there has to be less cash.
I guess that is where I see things different, so work with me as this may sound dumb and is off topic.....
I don’t think we have had much of a slowdown. Our big earners like Mining have only just stopped getting record prices. Profits are not down at the Banks. In fact they are up. Why so little pain? Was it the stimulus? No, the sectors worldwide that failed was consuming/manufacturing and sadly, in Aus, we don’t manufacture much.
So I feel the stimulus was wasted opportunity, we should have changed that with $300BN.
Instead we got:
Bank Gov Guarantee resulting in less competition in Banking. End result: we come out with no smaller competitors and the Big 4 just got bigger. Long term impact, higher banking costs and less business loans.
50% Depreciation Allowances: thus, we all bought new Labtops, Iphones, etc.. from overseas especially China. I.E. i got a new commercial tools kit and yes, Makita,... Chinese Made, Japanese Owned. We keep a few salesmen in jobs now, but what about in 6 months. End result: We took company tax from the Aus Treasury and gave it to the Chinese Treasury. Long term: business have more debt when rates are about to rise.
Nation Building: New school halls but few new schools. Where are the snowy schemes? Diverting rivers? drought- proofing food bowls? Improved rail, roads and ports?
We have NBN (to come) but that was going to happen anyway. A lot of promises but where is the money going to come for them, now we have hocked the Nation.
Green: I would have preferred focused tax savings and incentives on say green energy startup like the USA. Solar, wind, coal, etc… Instead we have (from what I read) killed off most of the solar installers and given rebates to buying existing technology form OS again.
I guess I see our Country as very lucky we have cheap and abundant mines / food as we don’t have much else. $300BN could have done a lot to change that. And now, we have no money left and like a small boat (Australia) tied to Ship (China) we will sink or float because of China and not ourselves. So let’s hope the USA starts to buy Chinese again because if not, we don’t have much else to make money from.
Peter.
Wholeheartedly agree.
