25bp either Nov or Dec.
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Who knows what the RBA will do, but I'd actually like to see a 0.25% rise in October, because while on one hand it won't (shouldn't) have much effect in and of itself, it'll send a warning shot across the bows that the current low interest rates reallly won't last forever. Of course we've been being told this for ages, but imo it won't sink in for a lot of people until it actually starts happening. Then they can hold off on further rises if they want/need to.
I'm throwing my dart at February with a 0.5 increase.
I think the RBA will want to ensure job creation and spending during the festive period.
The RBA have predictably moved early on rates - even before (worsening) employment figures expected Thursday. This is likely a pre-emptive signal that Captain Stevens is not asleep at the wheelhouse
All the warning signals have been out there for a while now,the RBA would have up too the minute data,unlike the normal person in the street who finds out three months down the track what's happening in the real worldisnt this a contradiction? putting rates up whilst unemployment worsens is being asleep at the wheel
what I take from this is a very strong signal that we are heading back to good times
All the warning signals have been out there for a while now,the RBA would have up too the minute data,unlike the normal person in the street who finds out three months down the track what's happening in the real world
if the real numberS come out on unemployment-then little ruddy would be very worried,but that's not going to happen be prepared for the next rate rise this time next month,all those people that bought into any of the top
end banks for $24,$17,$6.88 low range prices would be laughing now they took the risk when everyone thought the world was about to end....
once the ASX5000 mark is broken again greed will overtake fear..JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER TIME..
..willair..
well, over 90% of economists (expert like RBA people) didn't expect a rate rise yesterday, it make me wonder who knows what is happening in the real world.
None in 2007 was expecting what happen last year, I don't see ANY of fundamental out today that is better then 2007 and that can prevent a new GFC like last year
Its a funny thing, rising interest rates and rising unemployment. Interesting times we are in.
The RBA is targeting the circumstances they expect to encounter in the future. Unemployment is what happened 3 months ago, & is therefore irrelevant. Consumer & business confidence, retail sales, house prices, car sales, stock market, job advertisements, lending, bond yields, building approvals are all pointing towards a much stronger economic environment. I can't think of any leading indicators that aren't positive. Starting to raise IRs early is more likely to mean a lower peak in this cycle - that must be a good thing.Don't forget low CPI as well (zero% increase in the last 2 months), seems RBA is targeting something else that is not quite clear what it is...
Sluggish, but positive (ABS 9314.0), especially in the context of the stimulus that finished the previous month. The previous 15 months sales were -ve. Figures for Sept are due on 21st......New cars sales are still sluggish and hours worked dropping.
Agreed, but it's a trailing indicator.Less hours means less demand.
When did the stimulus end ? Over 3 months ago ? Surely, it's well & truly tailed off by now ?I still belive we are yet to see the tail off of the stimulus money and what that means to GDP.
LESS WORK HOURS
Agreed, but it's a trailing indicator.
QUOTE]
I would say that it is leading. As people have fewer hours at first they spend as is, then when the credit cards come in, they tighten the belts. Until we see stats saying hours are returning then there has to be less cash.
Sluggish, but positive (ABS
What data will convince you that the economy is looking stronger, and that except for 'external shocks', growth will return to average sooner rather than later ?
I guess that is where I see things different, so work with me as this may sound dumb and is off topic.....
I don’t think we have had much of a slowdown. Our big earners like Mining have only just stopped getting record prices. Profits are not down at the Banks. In fact they are up. Why so little pain? Was it the stimulus? No, the sectors worldwide that failed was consuming/manufacturing and sadly, in Aus, we don’t manufacture much.
So I feel the stimulus was wasted opportunity, we should have changed that with $300BN.
Instead we got:
Bank Gov Guarantee resulting in less competition in Banking. End result: we come out with no smaller competitors and the Big 4 just got bigger. Long term impact, higher banking costs and less business loans.
50% Depreciation Allowances: thus, we all bought new Labtops, Iphones, etc.. from overseas especially China. I.E. i got a new commercial tools kit and yes, Makita,... Chinese Made, Japanese Owned. We keep a few salesmen in jobs now, but what about in 6 months. End result: We took company tax from the Aus Treasury and gave it to the Chinese Treasury. Long term: business have more debt when rates are about to rise.
Nation Building: New school halls but few new schools. Where are the snowy schemes? Diverting rivers? drought- proofing food bowls? Improved rail, roads and ports?
We have NBN (to come) but that was going to happen anyway. A lot of promises but where is the money going to come for them, now we have hocked the Nation.
Green: I would have preferred focused tax savings and incentives on say green energy startup like the USA. Solar, wind, coal, etc… Instead we have (from what I read) killed off most of the solar installers and given rebates to buying existing technology form OS again.
I guess I see our Country as very lucky we have cheap and abundant mines / food as we don’t have much else. $300BN could have done a lot to change that. And now, we have no money left and like a small boat (Australia) tied to Ship (China) we will sink or float because of China and not ourselves. So let’s hope the USA starts to buy Chinese again because if not, we don’t have much else to make money from.
Peter.
Nation Building: New school halls but few new schools. Where are the snowy schemes? Diverting rivers? drought- proofing food bowls? Improved rail, roads and ports?