Predictions for AUD/USD exchange rate?
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The exchange rate is killing me! Our business is exporting product to the US - in 3 years we have gone from $0.60 to $0.97, all the while our competitors are US based and haven't been affected by currency fluctuations. Luckliy a huge increase in sales volume and cost cutting has allowed us to continue to have a survivable bottom line without pricing ourselves out of the market with price increases.
It's funny how everyone comments on what a good exhange rate we get when we go there for work, but they fail to see our income has dropped by 30% on every sale
I can tell you i'd rather double my expenses on our trips and have an extra 30% revenue in my back pocket!
I think we will have parity in the next 3 or 4 months, after that it's really uncharted territory in my lifetime terms of upwards trends.
I'm hoping it will drop back into the high 80's by late next year, but our economy will need to slow for that to happen and/or the US economy pick up a little.
I also think with the political changes in the US the next 12 months will be challanging - I doubt the dollar will remain at current levels in the first 3-6 months of the next presidency - but I don't know if it will get stronger or weaker.
Cheers
Buddybee
It's funny how everyone comments on what a good exhange rate we get when we go there for work, but they fail to see our income has dropped by 30% on every sale
I can tell you i'd rather double my expenses on our trips and have an extra 30% revenue in my back pocket!I think we will have parity in the next 3 or 4 months, after that it's really uncharted territory in my lifetime terms of upwards trends.
I'm hoping it will drop back into the high 80's by late next year, but our economy will need to slow for that to happen and/or the US economy pick up a little.
I also think with the political changes in the US the next 12 months will be challanging - I doubt the dollar will remain at current levels in the first 3-6 months of the next presidency - but I don't know if it will get stronger or weaker.
Cheers
Buddybee
I think in the short term we will see the $AUD rising against the $US, maybe get a tad over the 1:1.
Medium term I see our interest rates falling and the US interest rates rising as well as other parts of the world that have low interest rates. As this happens the Aussie dollar wont be so attractive to foreign investors and so we'll see the exchange rate start to come back towards the 80-90 cent mark.
There's always the unkown that seems to pop up and throw a spanner in the works.
Medium term I see our interest rates falling and the US interest rates rising as well as other parts of the world that have low interest rates. As this happens the Aussie dollar wont be so attractive to foreign investors and so we'll see the exchange rate start to come back towards the 80-90 cent mark.
There's always the unkown that seems to pop up and throw a spanner in the works.
I'm looking to $1.20 in the medium term. The US is losing grip and it will eventuate that oil trades in a currency other than USD. I can see no respite for rates in this country and expect them to go up a fair way from where they are now. The combination of rapidly rising commodities prices, interest rate differentials and so on will see a declining and severe deterioration in the USD, entirely my opinion of course.
As the US is suffering from rising inflation one way they could curb that is to raise interest rates or strengthen the dollar. The former idea is not a popular option at the moment due to labour market tightening and high fuel prices.
Last week Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that FX intervention is possible and Monday US Treasury Secretary Paulson said on CNBC that the US government is not ruling out intervention.
In the past, the Federal Reserve wanted the dollar to fall to boost exports and growth, but they have now flipped their stance and instead they want the dollar to rise.
So.... stay tuned....for those of us that are hoping for a strengthening of the dollar - we may be in luck yet..
Last week Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that FX intervention is possible and Monday US Treasury Secretary Paulson said on CNBC that the US government is not ruling out intervention.
In the past, the Federal Reserve wanted the dollar to fall to boost exports and growth, but they have now flipped their stance and instead they want the dollar to rise.
So.... stay tuned....for those of us that are hoping for a strengthening of the dollar - we may be in luck yet..
hi all
new to me is that the chinese is buying government to get rid of there cash.
control of the money is a slide for me
but what do I know
I think you may see 1.50 to 2.00 against the aussie dollar now will that help youre export into the us.
yes if selling beer and drugs or your a liquidator company
will some one tell me why the rate would come down.
is the us going to buy our currency( they can start to buy there own
I know where there is three trillion dollars of us currency today)(boc)
your currancy rises when some one wants it not because a bank says buy our currency.
and at the moment less people want the us dollar simple as that.
so to have the dollar come back some one must want it.
well
who
the indians (not likely)
the chinese (full up thanks )
the europeans( not really got enough and the euro not that flash)
maybe the russians ( you would have to be joking)
so simple question who
the us dollar is only up there at the moment as its a stable currency to trade take that away and they have big problems.
so drop to 80 aust
why
unless someone sees something on the horizon that my eyes can't see.
could turn out like our petrol prices ever rising and no stop gap in place.
I am waiting for the petro, stop gap and mr rudd to say that prices won't rise.
but you will be waiting for te same time for the us dollar to start going back from my seat.
new to me is that the chinese is buying government to get rid of there cash.
control of the money is a slide for me
but what do I know
I think you may see 1.50 to 2.00 against the aussie dollar now will that help youre export into the us.
yes if selling beer and drugs or your a liquidator company
will some one tell me why the rate would come down.
is the us going to buy our currency( they can start to buy there own
I know where there is three trillion dollars of us currency today)(boc)
your currancy rises when some one wants it not because a bank says buy our currency.
and at the moment less people want the us dollar simple as that.
so to have the dollar come back some one must want it.
well
who
the indians (not likely)
the chinese (full up thanks )
the europeans( not really got enough and the euro not that flash)
maybe the russians ( you would have to be joking)
so simple question who
the us dollar is only up there at the moment as its a stable currency to trade take that away and they have big problems.
so drop to 80 aust
why
unless someone sees something on the horizon that my eyes can't see.
could turn out like our petrol prices ever rising and no stop gap in place.
I am waiting for the petro, stop gap and mr rudd to say that prices won't rise.
but you will be waiting for te same time for the us dollar to start going back from my seat.
and the fact their dollar isn't worth gold anymore, just the paper it's written on.
IMO coming back to parity is just getting back to fair value.
Here's a good link to historical data: http://www.wrenresearch.com.au/downloads/
I would expect it to fluctuate between .80 and 1.20 AUD/USD
(without the anomaly of 2000 any time soon, if at al.)
Here's a good link to historical data: http://www.wrenresearch.com.au/downloads/
I would expect it to fluctuate between .80 and 1.20 AUD/USD
(without the anomaly of 2000 any time soon, if at al.)
OK, OK, I hear you - I've also done some research and I guess I just have to accept the usd isn't going to strengthen in the short to mid-term and accept our losses. I think it'll be best to cash up our usd investments and exchange them into aud in preparation for us moving back to Oz in October. Best to cut off a finger than an arm so to speak .
While it's difficult to accept that we're going to make a loss on the PPOR we bought, renovated and are in midst of selling here in Caribbean - upside is if we're coming into a buyers market in Aust over the next few years then we have lots of good buying opportunites ahead to recoup some of our losses
Thanks for all your comments.
. While it's difficult to accept that we're going to make a loss on the PPOR we bought, renovated and are in midst of selling here in Caribbean - upside is if we're coming into a buyers market in Aust over the next few years then we have lots of good buying opportunites ahead to recoup some of our losses
Thanks for all your comments.
As Buddybee alluded to, better than parity means $0.80 ! At least for exporters like him and myself. The rise to 97c etc has had a terrible effect on my income potential.
Aud/usd
Fundamentals
AUD IS a Commodity Currency so it will trend with the commodity indexs
Very interest rate sensitive Currency.
Technicals
Resistence at 98.53
it has retraced to just past the/ or close to 61.8 fibonnaci ratio and heading north at the moment.
Has major support at 76.73 and 78.05 obsevation on Daily Chart.
a Fibonacci Projections could be.
Long a) 95.61 b) 106.47 c) 124.033
Short a) 78.05 b) 70.20 c) 57.57
CHISEL
Fundamentals
AUD IS a Commodity Currency so it will trend with the commodity indexs
Very interest rate sensitive Currency.
Technicals
Resistence at 98.53
it has retraced to just past the/ or close to 61.8 fibonnaci ratio and heading north at the moment.
Has major support at 76.73 and 78.05 obsevation on Daily Chart.
a Fibonacci Projections could be.
Long a) 95.61 b) 106.47 c) 124.033
Short a) 78.05 b) 70.20 c) 57.57
CHISEL
Aud
bUY THIS NOT ADVICE
Fundamentals
AUD IS a Commodity Currency so it will trend with the commodity indexs
Very interest rate sensitive Currency.
Technicals
Resistence at 98.53
it has retraced to just past the/ or close to 61.8 fibonnaci ratio and heading north at the moment.
Has major support at 76.73 and 78.05 obsevation on Daily Chart.
a Fibonacci Projections could be.
Long a) 95.61 b) 106.47 c) 124.033
Short a) 78.05 b) 70.20 c) 57.57
CHISEL
bUY THIS NOT ADVICE
Someting I posted over 5 years ago:
...this morning I saw an old mate from uni on the train (we live in the same suburb) - he's ex. RBA.
We were talking economics and I bought up the subject of the BIS Shrapnel forecasts.
He went onto tell me that a few weeks back he attended some breakfast function where the guest speaker was Dr. Chris Caton. Anyway, apparently someone asked Caton what his thoughts on the reliability of forecasts was.
His reply was to the effect: "I'm pretty comfortable with my 6 month forecasts".
He then said that a few months earlier he had been awarded some prize for the best forecasting of the $AUD over a particular period. He apparently also said that he was the only one in the group being considered for this prize who actually got the direction right of the exchange rate change right, so when it came to longer term forecasts you should "take them with a grain of salt".
(I could relate similiar stories about Professor Bob Gregory and Alan Oster)
At the time of posting:
...this morning I saw an old mate from uni on the train (we live in the same suburb) - he's ex. RBA.
We were talking economics and I bought up the subject of the BIS Shrapnel forecasts.
He went onto tell me that a few weeks back he attended some breakfast function where the guest speaker was Dr. Chris Caton. Anyway, apparently someone asked Caton what his thoughts on the reliability of forecasts was.
His reply was to the effect: "I'm pretty comfortable with my 6 month forecasts".
He then said that a few months earlier he had been awarded some prize for the best forecasting of the $AUD over a particular period. He apparently also said that he was the only one in the group being considered for this prize who actually got the direction right of the exchange rate change right, so when it came to longer term forecasts you should "take them with a grain of salt".
(I could relate similiar stories about Professor Bob Gregory and Alan Oster)
At the time of posting:
- Chris Caton was the Chief Economist at BT
- Alan Oster the Chief Economist at the NAB
- Professor Gregory (ANU) is a former RBA Director
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