Always good to look back while going forward,where would Western Sydney be right now,compared too Brisbane?.
I would say 11am.
Property Cycle Clock - Where are we right now?
- Thread starter stumpie
- Start date
I would say 11am.
Which market?
Sydney 12/1am
Melbourne 10/11pm
Brisbane 7/8pm
Mining towns 6am?
Sydney 12/1am
Melbourne 10/11pm
Brisbane 7/8pm
Mining towns 6am?
Maybe not in all suburbs, but in my area they are. I am getting a lot of 'price reduced' emails from agents lately.
wouldn't that be 6? but we are already at 9?
It depends. Are the price drops because house prices are reducing or are the a result of optomistic pricing and more houses on the market. My area is more the latter where yields are falling and there is move towards oversupply. 6 would indicate the bottom of the market, but there is no evidence the market has bottomed out in my area. I don't think we are at 9 either. We have seen rising yields (7), definite undersupply (8), falling interest rates (9), riding sales volumes and prices (10), construction boom (11), price boom (12) and are now experiencing falling yields (1) and a move towards oversupply (2). We have not seen rising interest rates (3), lower sales volumes/prices (4) or falling construction (5) in this cycle yet. So that would put the market in my area in the 1 - 2 range. My 'area' is City of Belmont LGA.
I agree Perthguy, I think Perth is at 2 o'clock.
However we don't get to 3 o'clock until interst rates start rising. If everyone's predictions are right this won't happen till mid next year or so
Going to be a long slow fall till then? And then till 6 o'clock.
I have sold two properties and putting $100,000 into a triplex development.
And Holding $100,000 for when perth bottoms out maybe 2017/18 so that I can buy again and repeat... It is hard though when I go to an auction in Carine and watch a 4x2 go under the hammer for 690,000. My arms starts twitching cause I think that is good buying. I keep telling myself wait till interest rates rise and then wait a little longer. It is hard to sit on the sidelines and watch.
Interesting times ahead.
However we don't get to 3 o'clock until interst rates start rising. If everyone's predictions are right this won't happen till mid next year or so
Going to be a long slow fall till then? And then till 6 o'clock.
I have sold two properties and putting $100,000 into a triplex development.
And Holding $100,000 for when perth bottoms out maybe 2017/18 so that I can buy again and repeat... It is hard though when I go to an auction in Carine and watch a 4x2 go under the hammer for 690,000. My arms starts twitching cause I think that is good buying. I keep telling myself wait till interest rates rise and then wait a little longer. It is hard to sit on the sidelines and watch.
Interesting times ahead.
well we haven't even got to a balanced market yet, let alone on oversupplied one, so on that basis it must be before 2. 12 never happened other than some select properties, 1 is debatable. 9 is still happening. so if we wind the clock back from 2 it could be 9? this would make sense because apparently Perth boom trends always follow Sydney. And there is a touch of 6 stirred in according to the stats?
I don't see any indicators we are at the bottom of the market in Perth. More like coming off the top. I follow the City of Belmont LGA. Check out these graphs and see if they tell you the market is topping out or bottoming out:
Cloverdale houses:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/WA-6105-cloverdale.aspx
Belmont houses:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/WA-6104-belmont.aspx
Kewdale houses:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/WA-6105-kewdale.aspx
Rivervale houses:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/wa-6103-rivervale.aspx
Coming off a peak would put us after 12 but before 3. I know in my area that yields are falling. My place was rented out for $440 a week. Advertising soon at max $400, maybe less
I don't see any indicators we are at the bottom of the market in Perth. More like coming off the top. I follow the City of Belmont LGA. Check out these graphs and see if they tell you the market is topping out or bottoming out:
Cloverdale houses:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/WA-6105-cloverdale.aspx
Belmont houses:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/WA-6104-belmont.aspx
Kewdale houses:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/WA-6105-kewdale.aspx
Rivervale houses:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/wa-6103-rivervale.aspx
Coming off a peak would put us after 12 but before 3. I know in my area that yields are falling. My place was rented out for $440 a week. Advertising soon at max $400, maybe less
They are last years statistics. This is a more up to date summary of current market. http://www.realmark.com.au/are-there-too-many-houses-for-sale-in-perth/
There are approximately 14,000 properties on the residential market in Perth.
That?s a 34% increase in housing stock compared with this time last year.
On the back of this, sales have dropped 15.5% compared with this time last year.
And there?s a 29% increase in property available for rent in WA since this time last year.
Average days on market for a home in WA is now 67. (Compared with the previous average of 45 days.)
57% of sellers in WA recently said they were prepared to discount their asking price.
Data from reiwa.com.au.
This article on Perth property market is very interesting.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/p...ings-jump-by-50-per-cent-20150227-13qph6.html
After GFC 2008 there were 15,000 properties on the market.
I also think sellers need to keep it real as per article.... if you don't have it on the market at the right price, it should not be on the market as it wont well.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/p...ings-jump-by-50-per-cent-20150227-13qph6.html
After GFC 2008 there were 15,000 properties on the market.
I also think sellers need to keep it real as per article.... if you don't have it on the market at the right price, it should not be on the market as it wont well.
I agree Perthguy, I think Perth is at 2 o'clock.
However we don't get to 3 o'clock until interst rates start rising. If everyone's predictions are right this won't happen till mid next year or so
Going to be a long slow fall till then? And then till 6 o'clock.
I have sold two properties and putting $100,000 into a triplex development.
And Holding $100,000 for when perth bottoms out maybe 2017/18 so that I can buy again and repeat... It is hard though when I go to an auction in Carine and watch a 4x2 go under the hammer for 690,000. My arms starts twitching cause I think that is good buying. I keep telling myself wait till interest rates rise and then wait a little longer. It is hard to sit on the sidelines and watch.
Interesting times ahead.
That is good you offloaded some of your Perth properties, I have also sold 2 projects but not going back to Perth market. Will be buying/developing further in Melb. My gut tells me there may be some bargains in Perth but I prefer to play in a rising market.
MTR
I was looking at the prices on those graphs, not sales volumes. The prices indicate the market is topping out (in terms of price), not bottoming out (in terms of price).
Anyway, That is an interesting article.
Which would put the Perth market at 2 O'Clock.
Although, in my area, construction is starting to ease. I think it is too early to say we have moved to the 'falling construction' phase, but early indicators are that we are heading that way.
https://bcitf.org/upload/documents/research_reports/SNAPSHOTWAMarch2015v20150318.pdf
I don't think I'm 'confused'. I have been arguing the Perth market is at 2 O'Clock. You are arguing 4. Is there such a difference?INVSTOR said:
With indicators of oversupply, falling sales volumes and prices and falling construction, it's definitely in the area of 2 to 5. It's a little early to pick exactly where. It's certainly not at 6 or 9 as has been argued.
I agree. I'm watching my property in Melbourne and will be developing that one next.
Instead of arguing about numbers on an imaginary clock, it might be easier to just say- Perth is a falling market and Melbourne is a rising market. That's in general of course. There are always outliers.
interesting article. That would put it at 2 o'clock, obviously local markets can differ. so it seems there could be bargains to get with the over supply?
Can the clock jump from 2 to 6 or does it just happen faster with a rush of Sellers? Once the over supply has peaked is this likely when prices reach the lowest or 6oclock?
I think the point is, there is no clock. Why? Because if it shows IRs as a key point of time, yet different cities under the same IR regime are in completely different cycles, then clearly the clock is well and truly broken
Where on the clock does it show "largest export commodity pounded to negligible value" followed by "lights turned out on car manufacturing industry with enormous job losses" and then "govt has no money" followed by "taxes go thru roof"
Years ago 14,000 was considered balanced, now days it's probably more like 18,000, so on any scale we are at best balanced.
Let's bear in mind the relevance of this number... when listings plummeted to around 8,000 nothing happened to prices. You would have expected a massive price break out.
the article is quite old now and is mostly from our great bearish REIWA leader (that's so odd??). I like the closing comment:
But Mr Wood said low interest rates would help to stop property prices from plunging.
"It's not all doom and gloom," he said.
ha! good luck with that, IRs won't change the market direction. Job certainty, sentiment, economic activity will
