Property Cycle Clock - Where are we right now?
- Thread starter stumpie
- Start date
Falling yields and rising prices depending on the area,the small areas that I watch the prices are starting to move,but some of the rents have gone down,mainly too a semi over supply of high rise units,just another normal part of the cycle..imho..
Some interesting and useful articles about the Perth property market.
https://www.mywealth.commbank.com.a...p--across-the-capitals-for-2015-infocus201501
https://www.mywealth.commbank.com.au/property/perth-property--pros-and-pitfalls-infocus201410
I think the take away of the second article is that different areas of the market will not perform the same. So you really need to know your market. I think a good example is Forrestfield, which seems to be going well at the same time other areas are struggling.
It's interesting they highlight Belmont and Rivervale as moving into oversupply. That's my reading of the local market too. Whereas, I know in other areas there is still undersupply. I think the idea of a Perth market is a bit misleading. As we have seen, there are markets within markets within markets, and they don't seem to be performing the same at all. Complicated!
https://www.mywealth.commbank.com.a...p--across-the-capitals-for-2015-infocus201501
https://www.mywealth.commbank.com.au/property/perth-property--pros-and-pitfalls-infocus201410
I think the take away of the second article is that different areas of the market will not perform the same. So you really need to know your market. I think a good example is Forrestfield, which seems to be going well at the same time other areas are struggling.
It's interesting they highlight Belmont and Rivervale as moving into oversupply. That's my reading of the local market too. Whereas, I know in other areas there is still undersupply. I think the idea of a Perth market is a bit misleading. As we have seen, there are markets within markets within markets, and they don't seem to be performing the same at all. Complicated!
Totally agree......COMPLICATED!!
And this line from 2nd article is so true for newbies like me: "Generally, Perth appears to be a challenging market for the unitiated. On the surface there are still high prices, but there's also much less activity."
Learning a lot from the discussion here. Much appreciated.
Stupid newbie question: what happens if we buy in an oversupply suburb in this current climate?
Where is the undersupply? Just curious. Not seriously looking at the moment.
My thinking is perhaps areas like Scarborough?? but it will be a certain product which is in short supply/unique and high demand, ie R40 development site.
Perhaps Doubleview, once again sort after location, deve site, where you can build at rear.
Belmont and Rivervale apartments?? oversupply as developers targeted these areas during the rise.
But I suspect in the main most areas are falling or going sideways, stock is increasing and almost same amount stock when GFC hit.
Can you please provide an update on the seminar and what he had to say, if you don't mind sharing, keen on this
ThanksMelbourne what, Melbourne where? It will depend on where you a looking. My area of interest in Melbourne is north of Heidelberg. I know development sites there are going well, as are new townhouses.
Development sites in White Gum Valley and Willagee? I'm just going on what my mates have told me. I have two looking in the area. I have been told there is a lack of supply. The other one is Forrestfield. I know of a couple of people looking in the area and they are having trouble finding anything.
It might be a matter of demand. re.com.au says that Forrestfield, White Gum Valley and Willagee are 'High demand markets'. Have you seen Willagee and White Gum Valley are crazy! Average of WA is 194 page visits per property. Willagee is 466 page visits per property. White Gum Valley is 498 page visits per property!
http://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/forrestfield-6058-wa
http://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/white gum valley-6162-wa
http://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/willagee-6156-wa
Another interesting metric is the number of listings with reduced prices. For example, go to re.com.au, select 'Perth - Greater Region, WA' and key work search 'reduced' or 'reduction'. Out of 26092 Total Results:
'reduced' returns 710 results and
'reduction' returns 759 results.
I note there is some duplication between the listings, but that's still a fair number of properties with reduced prices.
'reduced' returns 710 results and
'reduction' returns 759 results.
I note there is some duplication between the listings, but that's still a fair number of properties with reduced prices.
Development sites in White Gum Valley and Willagee? I'm just going on what my mates have told me. I have two looking in the area. I have been told there is a lack of supply. The other one is Forrestfield. I know of a couple of people looking in the area and they are having trouble finding anything.
It might be a matter of demand. re.com.au says that Forrestfield, White Gum Valley and Willagee are 'High demand markets'. Have you seen Willagee and White Gum Valley are crazy! Average of WA is 194 page visits per property. Willagee is 466 page visits per property. White Gum Valley is 498 page visits per property!
http://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/forrestfield-6058-wa
http://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/white gum valley-6162-wa
http://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/willagee-6156-wa
Yes its deve sites that are in demand, I purchased a development site in Willagee last year, zoning has been confirmed December 2015. Have not been following Forrestfield, White Gum Valley, I think Government has been offloading land in this area.
Melbourne has been flying under the radar, some of the Melb posters have vanished, and I think why we are not getting too much news about this market
East is hot, hot, hotand development sites are hot, hot, hot
Can you please provide an update on the seminar and what he had to say, if you don't mind sharing, keen on this
He did show graphs that's show that the market in all cities are coming to a end.
Due to higher unemployment and house prices rising is a sign its coming to a end.
He explained why OTP apartment were a bad deal.
Buying now for just for the GC ride is just crazy.
Have to make your own opportunity.
Buy in he's US fund.
All you guy's know this anyway
Got a free note padThat makes sense buy in his US fund, he is making a killing on those fees he is charging. Though I must admit US is in recovery, but still would not touch his fund, no control
Interesting, had a conversation today with an investor, same thoughts, unemployment increasing, people will not be buying if they dont have a job, or fear they may lose their job. This is sobering for sure.
Step back moment for me, thanks for feedback
MTR
Interesting, had a conversation today with an investor, same thoughts, unemployment increasing, people will not be buying if they dont have a job, or fear they may lose their job. This is sobering for sure.
Step back moment for me, thanks for feedback
MTR
This is already happening in Perth.
South West has not recovered and Mandurah still flat/over supply. Only lower entry levels moving.
Syd 11:30pm
Melb 9:30pm
Brissy 4pm
Perth 2am
Melb 9:30pm
Brissy 4pm
Perth 2am
Funny I typed my post before seeing this. Completely agree.
And the nights just about to get wild in Melbourne. 10 months left peak in May 2016.
Could turn back up, but Residex shows growth has been slowing in Melbourne:
Kinda seems like this has the potential to slow things further from July...
http://www.shinewing.com.au/news-and-publications/2015-federal-budget-property-insights/
