Property Cycle Clock - Where are we right now?
- Thread starter stumpie
- Start date
So Dave its peaking
From what I have been seeing, peaked price rise late last year, market is still very strong but it not a feeding frenzy like Q4 2013 where stock would hit the web under contract.
I am regularly on pricefinder sales reporting for a bunch of suburbs around penrith LGA, and so many are being bought as rentals with agents blowing smoke about rental yields, and then ultimately being rented at under 5%.
Dont get me wrong there are still deals to be done and some good gains to be made with careful buying.
My PM in Penrith commented not long ago that they are seeing two trends in the area..
1) Movement of renters into home ownership last year due to low rates and a perceived need to get into ownership before prices rise too much
2) Influx of investors driving up demand for entry level properties, adding more rental stock which, coupled with some rent to ownership of tenants, left properties empty or with lower rental figures. An interesting point was that there is no shortage of applicants, but a real shortage of good quality applicants and they are recommending to not accept them and to leave empty for another week or two to see what else comes in.
Interesting, it a bit hard when you are in the middle of the boom, but when will it slow down..? Do you think it's going to be flat for a few years, collapse or normal growth? When you look at graphs it's usually a boom followed by a period of flat growth or no growth at all, unless something has made the area boom like a Mining town, after a very steep growth it's not very often average growth continues
And I've never understood, where do all these bad applicants go? I thought it was like your. Credit report, you do the earnest to keep it in good order, once you are on the tica database no one will rent to you unless you go private or severely overpay......
Some people,have such bad records I'm surprised they even bother looking
They work the system, use other names ie company name etc, and fake references.
If you look at how the median Sydney house price has moved over the last 30years, you will see/note that over 85% of the gains have been achieved in around 25% of the time, mainly in short bursts of 1-3 years.
My gut... there will be a bit of a sell off from existing investors to make some quick cash due to the high prices over the next 6 months which will return some normalcy to the rental market, and then it will quiet down a bit and sit on a plateau for a while.. I dont see huge drops as the prices still arent that high from a sydney point of view (lots of the gains have been had in the sub 450k range).
They try agencies in case they get a lazy PM who doesnt check, or they go to gumtree or sublets
BUMP....
Curious where are all the markets today, 1 year later.
I will comment on Perth market, seeing this is my home State - market had a very good run (rising market) from 2012-2014. We are now seeing rents fall back, more stock coming on the market and oversupply of apartments in various areas. Properties are selling, however in the main its price sensitive and I would say its now a buyers market in general, depending on the product.
Melb - I know is going strong, but would like locals to post on this.
Syd - OMG
some serious money has been made, great for those who jumped inMTR
Perth at 2 ?clock? In oversupply in alot of areas. Are prices starting to fall across all suburbs yet?
Interest rates at record lows and heading lower but consumer confidence is shot. Maybe 2 years until it bottoms out?
note: There is always submarkets moving against the trend and if your crafty theres still ways to make money
Interest rates at record lows and heading lower but consumer confidence is shot. Maybe 2 years until it bottoms out?
note: There is always submarkets moving against the trend and if your crafty theres still ways to make money
ooh yeh! about to start smashing it out....
there's an old guy sitting next to me
Watching his rents come in ...
Cliff
Watching his rents come in ...
Cliff
I found this an interesting read, it was posted elsewhere on Somersoft but I thought I'd share it here anyway since this bloke summarises where the 'property cycle' is for all states, it is a bit 'Sydney' focused but some good data on the other capitals if you sift thorough
https://seminarbonuses.s3.amazonaws...a5178b7f9f831a5d0f767e536714128f0207464bf513d
I'm only watching the Adelaide market- we are about '7 o'clock' in my oppinion- just past the bottom of the cycle, still good value buying, some slight upswing now evident.
https://seminarbonuses.s3.amazonaws...a5178b7f9f831a5d0f767e536714128f0207464bf513d
I'm only watching the Adelaide market- we are about '7 o'clock' in my oppinion- just past the bottom of the cycle, still good value buying, some slight upswing now evident.
BUMP....
Curious where are all the markets today, 1 year later.
I will comment on Perth market, seeing this is my home State - market had a very good run (rising market) from 2012-2014. We are now seeing rents fall back, more stock coming on the market and oversupply of apartments in various areas. Properties are selling, however in the main its price sensitive and I would say its now a buyers market in general, depending on the product.
Melb - I know is going strong, but would like locals to post on this.
Syd - OMG
MTR
how long till perth/wa areas start gettting closer to 6?? Just moved to the state and looking to jump on something but ill need the cash flow.
FYI moved to Northam, Perth people love the place from what ive heard!! lol. we have no qualms... few interesting locals and stories but we're happy out of the city (is perth offically a city yet??
)
how long till perth/wa areas start gettting closer to 6?? Just moved to the state and looking to jump on something but ill need the cash flow.
FYI moved to Northam, Perth people love the place from what ive heard!! lol. we have no qualms... few interesting locals and stories but we're happy out of the city (is perth offically a city yet??
Depends where you are buying?
I think I would waiting another 6 months at least before jumping in, perhaps will be closer to 6 by then IMO
MTR
