"Property price plunge unlikely"

[Gordon Gekko]

Hi All,

Anybody read this article today in THE AGE.

How does this guy come up with these figures???


Rob Mellor, BIS Shrapnel's director of building services and construction says:

"For Sydney and Melbourne, the growth will only be a modest nine per cent over three years rather than the stellar 20 per cent or more per year that house prices in those cities recently experienced"

and

"At the other end of the scale, Brisbane house prices would rise by 42 per cent between June 2003 and June 2006 as the Queensland housing boom continues for at least another 18 months, Mr Mellor said."

Here is the link: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/17/1076779953218.html

GG

 

[JAZPER]

like me he may have Brisbane property?

Jazper

 

[Sunfish]

Bet he has a puter on his desk! A true guru!

 

[MJK]

I think the interesting thing is that everyone from the man on the street to the Guru to the critic is all saying "Brisbane has more go in it"!
Time will tell, but its nice to have a few properties in Brisbane at the moment.

Alot of focus has come off the Gold Coast lately, has anyone noticed.

MJK

 

[willair]

Does anyone ever take the time to look at the relationships
between sales volume/prices,particularly during real estate
booms,and then look again month by month to see which areas are starting to stall and others that are still cathing up,i dont think we are at the top of the real estate cycle in QLD yet,
but considerable care needs to be exercised in what area you buy into,but 42% over that period, some inner city areas mmmmm.
good luck
willair..

 

[MJK]

Good point Willair.

I agree some of the inner Bris stuff is pretty dear already. I would suggest most of the anticipated growth to be in the middle and outer ring ( he says looking at his crystal ball ).

For me, I've stopped buying in Brisbane after having a buying session up there between 1999 and 2003, so I'm just wanting to squeeze the last drop out of it. If you know what I mean.

Cheers,
MJK

 

[RPI]

I think that either inner brisbane has to increase significantly in price or the middle and outer suburbs have to decrease significantly in price. At the moment there is only a small price differential between inner and middle suburbs and in the 300-400K price brackets there are middle suburbs that have no price differential.

Inside the 5km ring of the city should be more expensive and signifcantly so than the middle, it has been this way for as long as I remember but the last 6 months or so it seems you can't buy anything under 300k within 10k's unless in a really dodgy area.

I am leaning towards the inner growing again, just some thoughts anyway

Darryl

 

[MJK]

Interesting RPI, pehaps the lack of differential is a result of people looking for yeilds ( investor driven ). Now that yeilds are not as prevalent we might see the focus move back int the inner ring.

MJK

 

[Peter 14.7]

Comment on BIS

I was recently moving my office and being a natural hoarder I found numerous newspaper clippings on Property. One stood out being a comment from BIS dated 2000 saying something like “Write this down, 9% rates in 2003”

Sadly, being slack, I forgot to write it down and to sell my IPs in a mad panic.

Now BIS say boom until 2006 and then 10% rates. Maybe this time they will get it right.

Regards, Peter 147

 

[MJK]

Yes, I agree with you Peter 147. I to have old clippings that show the comentators are often wrong.

My enthusiasm for Brisbane is not based on BIS or the like but rather my own reasoning.

Its just a bit of fun looking at these articles, helps to pass the time.

A positive article is always good for market sentiment...... its better than a doomsday article.

Cheers
MJK

 

[Peter 14.7]

Hi MJK

Thanks for your supporting evidence.

By the way, my post was not to knock Brisbane. IMHO I have absolutly no idea of the market there at all.

All I understand is a lot on immigrants from Vic moving up so it must need housing?

I need to learn more. I will send you a personal email of you dont mind.

Peter 147