QLD Election! Who is your money on?

[Ideo]

It's not really just Qld labor, or NSW labor that are in trouble. It is the labor model that is broken.

Their "working class" demographic is shrinking. That is splitting into an aspirational class that is well paid and doesn't need a union, and a rump that doesn't have a computer and needs someone to hold their hands.

Labor cheerfully witnessed the demise of the country party as rural Australia downsized it's workforce and abandoned the centres of business which serviced them. Those people had to settle into the liberals where they still held the ear of the leaders but their proposals were much more critically examined and had to meet the requirements of the broad population.

Labor is dead as a standalone party. They must split: The watermelons to join the greens in a socialist alliance and the moderates to the Australia Party [The "K" will be dropped] in a centrist party which will keep the b******s honest.

With all respect, I disagree.

We saw the same thing happen in the late 90s. A Liberal federal government, labor state government.

It's all swings and roundabouts.

I remember about 4 or so years ago, maybe a few more, all the people saying the Queensland Liberal party was dead in the water, would never win government again blah blah blah. Parties come back. Always have, always will.

On a side note, why is a coalition fine when it serves your interests, but morally reprehensible when you don't agree with the politics of the other side?

 

[The Fence]

He is a very formidable politician, as Tony et al will find out soon enough.

If all you have is a slip up re the Brazillian guy you're really clutching at straws. Its minuscule compared the the absolute rubbish that comes out of the opposition leaders mouth, and has for years.

Don't forget, the tool (known commonly as the mad monk) is in OPPOSITION and the election is a long way off. I don't discount Labor winning at all.

By the way, whatever happened to extreme right wing christian Tony? Whatever happened to the NO NO NO man? Who do have now, the orange vest and helmet clown Tony? The man is a total embarrassment.

I cringe at the thought of that goose running our country, almost as bad as little, liar Johnny.

That post has sore loser written all over it. The name calling and chip spitting is amazing.

 

[evand]

Are you kidding? Its my opinion of Tony Abbott? And its all fact. Can you deny the rubbish that has come out of his mouth over the years? Can you deny the man is a total goose?

And it was obvious the Libs would win the QLd election. Unbackable odds. No sore loser at all.

I dont childishly name call on here, like 'sore loser' and 'It's clear you don't know what you are talking about'. Now there's some name calling for you.

And you can you add something with substance to the debate, rather than the normal personal comments? Thanks mate.

That post has sore loser written all over it. The name calling and chip spitting is amazing.

 

[Sunfish]

I remember about 4 or so years ago, maybe a few more, all the people saying the Queensland Liberal party was dead in the water, would never win government again blah blah blah.

Me too!

They were unelectable as were the nats. So they combined and got the heart to do something and the new party got it's act together. Who do you think labor will join?

 

[evand]

Youre assuming they need to 'join'. They have been solo (unlike Liberal) for 100 years, that wont change in a hurry.

Not withstanding a recent dalliance with the greens. Still its not a permanent 'coalition of the dumb and wacko' as the Lib/Nats are.

Me too!

They were unelectable as were the nats. So they combined and got the heart to do something and the new party got it's act together. Who do you think labor will join?

 

[Ideo]

Me too!

They were unelectable as were the nats. So they combined and got the heart to do something and the new party got it's act together. Who do you think labor will join?

That is my point.

Why is a coalition a fine thing when it serves your interests but not anyone else?

Considering their current level of support at a federal level, there is no real need to do so.

There is that need for the coalition. So, why are we so accepting of this? It's pretty obvious because in that instance the coalition aligns with our own personal position. So it's fine. But no one else can do it. Because they are scary lefties and we can't have democracy if people disagree with us.

 

[Aaron_C]

On a side note, why is a coalition fine when it serves your interests, but morally reprehensible when you don't agree with the politics of the other side?

I think the point is the recent alliance with the Greens is destructive for Labor's traditional power/voting base. Labor voters tend to be at the lower-end of the socio-economic spectrum and are the first ones to be hit with high living costs associated with Labor/Green's policies like the Carbon Tax and destroying traditional manufacturing jobs that go with it (Bluescope, Alcoa et al). The people who vote Greens are those who live in the inner suburbs, work in decent white collar jobs and/or students, and think it is trendy to do so. I think they are the real enemy rather than Labor per se.

 

[Dazz]

we can't have democracy if people disagree with us.

Not at all, in fact, most democracies thrive on good oppositions.

No-one ever aimed for 100% consensus. Just have a look at this discussion, and many others on here. People have rusted on, fixed views, no matter the facts put before them.

That wasn't a landslide nor a whitewash what we all just witnessed. That was a complete and utter rejection of the Labor party, it's views, ideals and beliefs.....just like we all witnessed in the NSW state election.

Evand will probably say the Qld Labor vote is still strong and the election result means nothing. His views won't change, no matter what the population votes for. Fortunately, it's only his view, and he is most definitely in the minority, so fortunately his view is over-ruled by the majority.

Silly things like this statement below, are too easy to refute with facts ;

It sounds amazingly similar to the current Liberal party, who are absolutely irrelevant without the Nationals.

In his own home state of NSW, where they have a 93 seat Parliament and need 47 seats to form Govt, the NSW public just voted in the Liberal / National coalition, where the Liberals obtained 51 seats in their own right, with a further 18 seats to the Nationals.

The Liberals have more than enough seats to govern in their own right. The coalition with the Nationals just makes it a thumping majority.


Postscript : In my home state of WA, the Liberals most definitely need the Nationals to form Govt given the 2008 election results....but I suspect strongly, in the upcoming 2013 WA state election, the Liberals will do a 'NSW' and elect the Liberals in their own right to govern, such that they don't have to hopelessly compromise their policies to get bills thru.

I think the Aussie public has seen quite enough of what happens when they don't definitely decide on one of the major parties. Hung parliaments and cosy deals with minority parties and/or independents is not something the Aussie public wishes to repeat in a hurry.

 

[Ideo]

I think the point is the recent alliance with the Greens is destructive for Labor's traditional power/voting base. Labor voters tend to be at the lower-end of the socio-economic spectrum and are the first ones to be hit with high living costs associated with Labor/Green's policies like the Carbon Tax and destroying traditional manufacturing jobs that go with it (Bluescope, Alcoa et al). The people who vote Greens are those who live in the inner suburbs, work in decent white collar jobs and/or students, and think it is trendy to do so. I think they are the real enemy rather than Labor per se.

Yep, I see your point.

The ALP does need to work out what it's future is and where it stands.

But I think the whole blue collar = ALP position is getting pretty eroded away by now. There is a lot more self interest rather than collective interest in these groups. And you can see that in the results in traditional labor heartlands.

I don't see politics as being about "enemies". Mainly because I have no respect for any form of party politics. It's just about different sides of the same coin.

Certain things are inevitable and political parties don't actually make a single jot of difference. They just make small time party hacks on both sides feel important. I see it all the time. You own a couple of blocks of industrial land in the suburbs and are mates with a Councillor. Suddenly they think they are a major player in party politics when really they are just another nobody thinking they can achieve what they want.

They may do, but it will be decisions made well above their level.

 

[Ideo]

Nothing has changed with the results in NSW.

We still have the same plodding along with some polishing at the edges.

Nothing of any substance will change. Nor has it changed.

You will see the same in Qld.

A couple of amendments of bits of legislation here and there, some senior public servants will be made redundant and mates of the current mob will be moved in. But you are delusional if you think anything of substance will change.

 

[evand]

You have it the wrong way round.

Labor heartland used to be the outer suburban low income workers, now its the inner city leftie (which includes the greens). Sure there are still some low income labor voters but most the outer suburbs are Little Johhny's inspirational class mortgage belt. Totally ripped off when the GFC hit.

Labor is and will reinvent itself using the model of Blair's New Labor. Distancing itself from the unions as a young, fresh party straddling centrist policies. In time it will show how out of touch and irrelevant the current Liberal party really is.

I think the point is the recent alliance with the Greens is destructive for Labor's traditional power/voting base. Labor voters tend to be at the lower-end of the socio-economic spectrum and are the first ones to be hit with high living costs associated with Labor/Green's policies like the Carbon Tax and destroying traditional manufacturing jobs that go with it (Bluescope, Alcoa et al). The people who vote Greens are those who live in the inner suburbs, work in decent white collar jobs and/or students, and think it is trendy to do so. I think they are the real enemy rather than Labor per se.

 

[evand]

I was talking Federally, but you insist on bringing it back to the states. If it wasnt for a bunch (16 i think) of redneck QLD Nat seats, The Fed Libs would be irrelevant.

As for the huge swing to the Libs, big deal, as i said previously, that is the mood for now. In 5-10 years it will swing back again, as it always has.

Not at all, in fact, most democracies thrive on good oppositions.

No-one ever aimed for 100% consensus. Just have a look at this discussion, and many others on here. People have rusted on, fixed views, no matter the facts put before them.

That wasn't a landslide nor a whitewash what we all just witnessed. That was a complete and utter rejection of the Labor party, it's views, ideals and beliefs.....just like we all witnessed in the NSW state election.

Evand will probably say the Qld Labor vote is still strong and the election result means nothing. His views won't change, no matter what the population votes for. Fortunately, it's only his view, and he is most definitely in the minority, so fortunately his view is over-ruled by the majority.

Silly things like this statement below, are too easy to refute with facts ;



In his own home state of NSW, where they have a 93 seat Parliament and need 47 seats to form Govt, the NSW public just voted in the Liberal / National coalition, where the Liberals obtained 51 seats in their own right, with a further 18 seats to the Nationals.

The Liberals have more than enough seats to govern in their own right. The coalition with the Nationals just makes it a thumping majority.


Postscript : In my home state of WA, the Liberals most definitely need the Nationals to form Govt given the 2008 election results....but I suspect strongly, in the upcoming 2013 WA state election, the Liberals will do a 'NSW' and elect the Liberals in their own right to govern, such that they don't have to hopelessly compromise their policies to get bills thru.

I think the Aussie public has seen quite enough of what happens when they don't definitely decide on one of the major parties. Hung parliaments and cosy deals with minority parties and/or independents is not something the Aussie public wishes to repeat in a hurry.

 

[Fifth]

Labor is and will reinvent itself using the model of Blair's New Labor.

NuLabor... And here I was thinking you hated conservatives, Evand.

 

[Dazz]

As for the huge swing to the Libs, big deal, as i said previously, that is the mood for now.

...why do you think that mood exists right now ??

 

[Ideo]

...why do you think that mood exists right now ??

Governments that have been in too long and have run out of any ideas, making bad decisions.

Same thing that happened to Howard. Same thing that happened to state libs in most elections after they had been in power for a while.

People want change sometimes.

It's a good thing for politics. Gets some new blood in, new ideas, makes parties (both brands) take a long hard look at themselves and what they can do to improve.

 

[Aaron Sice]

not being a huge politico, in what sense does QLD mean nationally...?

i "heard" that the QLD vote alone could wipe out Labor federally, and by adding NSW into the mix could see a significant majority Liberal.

is that true? if so - WOW.

 

[Ideo]

not being a huge politico, in what sense does QLD mean nationally...?

i "heard" that the QLD vote alone could wipe out Labor federally, and by adding NSW into the mix could see a significant majority Liberal.

is that true? if so - WOW.

It depends really.

If you look at the ALP vote in QLD and NSW in the early 2000s it was not reflected in the federal vote. That was still a Liberal federal government. And that was some on-the-nose pollies and some very ineffective oppositions.

It's like saying 47% of local government elections elected and independent. Therefore both major parties are going to be wiped out at a state level.

 

[buzzlightyear]

In 1974, the Qld Labor Party was voted out of government and retained 11 MP out of a parliament of 81. The following year (1975), Whitlam/Federal Labor lost government with a 6% swing against it. History to repeat?

The trend hasn't changed for the Federal ALP with their vote stuck in the low 30's for over a year now, despite the continued anti-Abbott campaign. They aren't too far back to mount a challenge, but imo have not shown the capabilities or have the individuals to shift public sentiment. Now they have only one leadership option, with KRudds banishment, its Gillard or bust.....

Hope is the only thing that the ALP has left and a belief that the anti-Abbott campaign will take hold. It will, as we get closer to the election, but nowhere near enough to bridge the current gap. The personal attacks on Campbell Newman show that.

An about face on asset sales in Qld, precipitated the collapse in QLD ALP vote 2 years ago. Trust became an issue. The only Federal implication is that a loss of trust is electoral death. The carbon tax issue smells similar, irrespective of the respective merits of the policy. Notwithstanding, the pokies issue about face to re-inforce the same message.

And for those who think there are no Federal implications (just for clarity this is not saying the election was on Federal issues), but the likes of Peter Beattie, Michael Lavarach, Bill Ludwig see it differently.

 

[MangoMadness]

Labor is and will reinvent itself using the model of Blair's New Labor. Distancing itself from the unions as a young, fresh party straddling centrist policies. In time it will show how out of touch and irrelevant the current Liberal party really is.

I was talking Federally, but you insist on bringing it back to the states. If it wasnt for a bunch (16 i think) of redneck QLD Nat seats, The Fed Libs would be irrelevant.

As for the huge swing to the Libs, big deal, as i said previously, that is the mood for now. In 5-10 years it will swing back again, as it always has.

Man you are really sour about the weekend arnt you?

Everything I read from you in this thread sounds likes it comes from a one eyed, tunnel vision labor till they die supporter who cant see reality for what it is.

Labor is Labor, if Labor becomes something else then is it really Labor?

 

[coastymike]

Sounds great the Labour party will "reinvent itself" to become more like the Liberal Party.