RPData - House prices falling (nation wide) - Q2 2010

[WinstonWolfe]

The resi property market is much less volatile..

Then Joye should realize smaller movements in the property market are more significant..... like total listings, auction clearance rates, days on the market, housing finance.

And taking the analogy further, let's presume small cap listeds are equivalent to the regional property market.....what's Joye's interpretation of the regional market? places like Cairns and Tweed Coast.

 

[MichaelW]

Sorry, you've lost me mate, far too technical.

Property is a simple game. You buy it, you hold it, it goes up. Sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly. Sometimes it takes a breath, sometimes it even slides a bit, but in the long term, it goes up.

How can it not, people need to live in it and salaries rise with or ahead of inflation meaning prices rise with or ahead of inflation. Everyone wants a better one and there's only so much dirt on which to build with the best dirt already built on.

It really is just that simple. Its not a speculative game like the stockmarket, thats for punters. Property is a long term game. You buy, hold and wait.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[zed_kid]

If you guys wanted to see a RE bubble should have been in Dubai from early 2000s to 2008... if was of the hook dawg

 

[.toe]

There has been plenty of debate about whether we actually have a housing shortage. Perhaps we may soon have some market evidence one way or another. Interest rates are up which has dampened new housing starts.

If the shortage is genuine then before too long people will be trying to buy up housing again. The stories might be either prices rise again, or complaints that credit is too tight & hard to get.

If there is no shortage the market may languish for some time, given the size of the run up.

 

[MichaelW]

If the shortage is genuine then before too long people will be trying to buy up housing again. The stories might be either prices rise again, or complaints that credit is too tight & hard to get.

If there is no shortage the market may languish for some time, given the size of the run up.

Either way I win!

I've got my credit for my construction approved and I'm building a touch under one million bucks margin into my development and she's $50K pa cash flow positive at completion.

See, I'm a nice guy, doing my bit to help the big Aussie housing shortage problem as best I can. The government should give me money so I can help more Aussies into houses...

Cheers,
Michael

 

[tom32]

Sorry, you've lost me mate, far too technical.

Property is a simple game. You buy it, you hold it, it goes up. Sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly. Sometimes it takes a breath, sometimes it even slides a bit, but in the long term, it goes up.

How can it not, people need to live in it and salaries rise with or ahead of inflation meaning prices rise with or ahead of inflation. Everyone wants a better one and there's only so much dirt on which to build with the best dirt already built on.

It really is just that simple. Its not a speculative game like the stockmarket, thats for punters. Property is a long term game. You buy, hold and wait.

Cheers,
Michael

I think you are punting on government policy in a big way but each to his own. Fortunately for PI's land tax was ruled out immediately upon release of the Henry review and though you guys already pay land tax (assuming you own more than a PI or 2) it is the effect it would have on asset values even at 1% for all "mum and dad" investors which should be worrying. That said I don't think it is a big chance as it is political poison on the PPOR particularly, but it is a chance under a Labor government nonetheless. That said I also would not punt several million dollars on it not happening just in case whoever wins the election.

I guess in terms of yield the recent mining tax will have the same effect on yields in future for solid earning mining stocks so government policy changes can shag you in more places than just housing. It would just seem in housing you are relying on both the demand fueling policies and the supply shorting policies to continue to come together to protect your asset values?

 

[WinstonWolfe]

It really is just that simple. Its not a speculative game like the stockmarket, thats for punters. Property is a long term game. You buy, hold and wait.

Well, I presume you'll be on the lookout for another development site sometime soon and repeating the capital gains of the last 3-4 years.

Personally, I think growth won't be anything like the last 3 years, or 10 years.

But that would be trying to predict the future, which is punting.
Anyway, we'll all know soon enough.

 

[Deltaberry]

Should assume growth rates of 0% for next 10 years and see how it goes. If it's bad in that case, don't buy.

 

[hobo-jo]

National figures still haven't surpassed that peak in May.

RPData's latest monthly figures out today.

In the capital city markets, the RP Data-Rismark Indices reported that dwelling values were off by -1.6 per cent in seasonally-adjusted terms (-0.9 per cent raw) over January, with a similar pattern recorded in the 'rest of state' areas, where house values fell by -1.2 per cent, seasonally-adjusted (-0.1 per cent raw).

http://www.rpdata.com/images/storie...es/rpdata_rismark_home_value_index_feb_28.pdf

Things will get worse, before they get better.

 

[evand]

Thats about an annualised fall of 20%.

 

[bluestorm]

Or 30-40% over 2011/2012. Who would have thought. We're past the Aug 2010 peak, and past the plateau now where people still stubburnly thought prices only every go up. Now the realisation that prices can fall, and will fall the next 2yrs.

 

[buzzlightyear]

Hey, bluey, in the right light, I can almost see the venom glistening off those fangs of yours.

 

[bluestorm]

I'm just getting excited buzzlightyear. Sitting on 28% LVR with 3 properties, and waiting for a correction, and time to buy more later 2013. And all the pieces are slowly falling into place bit by bit. Plan to retire in 2017, so hopefully the play pans out.
Every bit of bad news is like Gold to me currently

 

[devo76]

So people were not out buying houses during the QLD and NSW floods. Theres a shocker.

 

[devo76]

I'm just getting excited buzzlightyear. Sitting on 28% LVR with 3 properties, and waiting for a correction, and time to buy more later 2013. And all the pieces are slowly falling into place bit by bit. Plan to retire in 2017, so hopefully the play pans out.
Every bit of bad news is like Gold to me currently

So you are no different to all the other evil specufesters. Just one cycle behind them

 

[Ed Barton]

So people were not out buying houses during the QLD and NSW floods. Theres a shocker.

or Perth or Adelaide or Canberra apparently. must have been the floods

 

[oracle]

I'm just getting excited buzzlightyear. Sitting on 28% LVR with 3 properties, and waiting for a correction, and time to buy more later 2013. And all the pieces are slowly falling into place bit by bit. Plan to retire in 2017, so hopefully the play pans out.
Every bit of bad news is like Gold to me currently

Hey blue, a lot of ppl on this forum and in the real world have the capacity to buy property at this point. At 5% unemployment it should qualify a lot of ppl to apply for loans to buy a house.

If rental yields were to improve around 1% from current levels by either rent increases and/or fall in prices a lot of people will jump in to buy. Such events have happened in the past and the so called 30-40% crash from peak prices don't happen because of ppls capacity to purchase property as soon as affordability improves slightly.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[bluestorm]

Yes, yes, I've heard it all before from the property bulls.

No event has happened before like the combination of events of currently happening (PIIGS, US, etc, etc). Your take on it is that there will be no impact. I'm positioning for a 30% fall.

Will you jump in if rental yields improve by 1%, but interest rate rises more than offset this as inflation hits the world.

 

[Ridin-High]

wow 30% price fall prediction lol. All i have to say is keep dreaming

 

[MIDProperty]

I wouldn't go so far as to bet on a property price drop of 30%. There is still alot of borrowing capacity out there and banks have the balance sheet to lend. As soon as prices drop the market will react and keep the prices fairly leveled. But I can see a flat market similar to those experienced in the 1990s - really depends on how quickly the world economies recover and price volatility flattens