See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

Sydney?s record early spring auction market strengthens

APM's Auction report for 20th Sept

Sydney?s early spring home auction market continues to strengthen recording a stunning 83.9 percent clearance rate at the weekend. This result was the highest recorded since last February and was achieved despite a surge in auction listings.

621 properties were listed to go under the hammer on Saturday which was well ahead of the 570 auctioned the weekend before and the 565 auctioned over the same weekend a year ago.

Sydney is set to host over 2400 auctions this September which will be an all-time record for the month and considerably higher than last September when 2003 homes went under the hammer.

This weekend?s auction clearance rate was the seventh consecutive weekend with rates above 80 percent. Sydney?s four-weekend average clearance rate now stands at 83.0 percent compared to 81.3 percent over the previous four-weekend period.

The upper north shore again reported the highest clearance rate of all the suburban regions at the weekend with a 90.1 percent result from 71 reported auctions. This was closely followed by the west with a clearance rate of 89.7 percent, the north west with 89.5 percent, the city and east at 88.6 percent, the northern beaches 83.9 percent, the inner west 81.5 percent with the most number of sales at 66, the south 80.8 percent and Canterbury Bankstown with a clearance rate of 80 percent.


Cliff
 
The APM clearance rates are the figures that are quoted in the media so they're the ones I follow . RP Data also quote figures which are typically slightly lower than the APM figures ( hence another reason why I quote APM ;) ) .


The RP Data blog has a couple of interesting comments / articles .

Why are house prices still rising ? is interesting reading . I think it gives a balanced account on where the market is at the moment , reporting current spectacular returns , while sounding a warning that it won't continue forever , but not attempting to crystal ball gaze and say when that will occur . They do however talk about the factors that will lead to that.


Capital city auctions deliver health returns

This week will have added to the already substantial growth in auction volumes this year across capital cities. Prior to this week there had been 61,056 auctions in capital cities, 33.6 per cent more than the 45,696 held over the same time last year.

In Sydney a preliminary clearance rate of 78.3 per cent was recorded compared to 80.1 per cent last week. Last week was only the 5th time in the past 5 years a clearance rate of over 80 per cent was achieved and this week has returned a similar result.

Cliff
 
Looking at upper north shore (eg Wahroonga) sold prices for last few months and I noticed that is is not as expensive as I thought, especially the one with smaller land components (most houses are on huge land), with some being sub 1 million dollars. Tempted to buy them but the land tax and lower yield put me off. Also I am not planning to move from where I live now.
 
I haven't seen too many sub 1 mil in the last month or two in Wahroonga . Only one i remember in the last month was one off Campbell Pde , which is a sell in Summer area .

My current observation is that I think the market seems to have jumped about 10 % in the last month from where it was in mid winter , too early to say for sure , but sales in the last week that I've seen have all been at the the top or above expectations

24 Kiora was expecting around 2.2 , due to go to auction this saturday , but sold today for 2.4 .

34 Evelyn was expecting to sell around 1.35 , sold for 1.515 with multiple bidders

Cliff
 
I live in Cherrybrook and even for this year I noticed the 4bedroom house prices has gone up to $1.2m from say $1m end of last year.

Castle Hill has a massive jump in prices. Even Townhouses around Castle Towers are in the mid/high 800K's ..... a 3 bedroom unit was sold for $920K!!!!!

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-castle+hill-117647487

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-nsw-castle+hill-117656763

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-castle+hill-117721731

I was looking at at buying a villa/townhouse around there but were too shocked at the prices.

I am sure the NWRL is a factor but still I am seeing somebody is gonna cry paying these prices.

Why on earth would you pay that much for unit/townhouses when for the same money you can buy houses in Sydney?

Looking at prices at Cherrybrook/Castle Hill, I thought Wahroonga/Turramurra should be much higher, some are in low $1M (from duplexes to small houses, or not most desirable part of upper north shore). Either the Hills area is too hot, or Upper North Shore is not hot enough. I couldn't work it out.

Less than 1M
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-wahroonga-111447023

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-wahroonga-117466495

Less than 900K!
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-wahroonga-117631387

Turramurra for 1M (I thought that is pretty good value)
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-turramurra-117581255
 
edison said:
Looking at prices at Cherrybrook/Castle Hill, I thought Wahroonga/Turramurra should be much higher, some are in low $1M (from duplexes to small houses, or not most desirable part of upper north shore). Either the Hills area is too hot, or Upper North Shore is not hot enough. I couldn't work it out.

Less than 1M
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-wahroonga-111447023

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-wahroonga-117466495

Less than 900K!
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-wahroonga-117631387

Turramurra for 1M (I thought that is pretty good value)
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-turramurra-117581255
Click to expand...


Benson Cl , The less than 900K looks as thought it backs on the The Motor way . At that point there is an access ramp where cars and trucks will be accelerating to join the motor way . Wouldn't vaguely think about touching it.

Campbell Drive for 940 I think is a good price for the owner . Campbell drive is probably the cheapest rd in Wahroonga , It's dark and cold in Winter , a long winding rd which some cars like to hoon around . Didn't actually go to the house , but saw the add prior to sale . An small unattractive house . I think is a very good price for the owner . At a lower price would be a good entry level house , but when the market is slower this will be about the last house to sell in the suburb .

Russell Ave for 990 . Russell Ave was going to be where the Motor way went through until it was changed around ? 15 years ago . as a result no one put any money into it. It's in a slightly awkward place to get to compared with much of wahroonga , so it's always going to be at the bottom end of wahroonga . As a Street it's ok and will improve , we looked there in 2001 when we bought our current PPOR . Our kids were playing in the street when the neightbour of the house we looked at came out and told our kids to shut up . They weren't that noisy .

Duff St is probably the best . Close to the station , but a steep street and gets parked out with commuters ( that does happen to anywhere close to the station , so not a negative price wise ) . The upper part of the street has been rezoned and there are already some units there . 11 a is not a house but a house split into two so not a comparison for stand alone houses . I think the other half sold ( or was valued ) at 1.3 , so total value for the " property " is over 2 mill . My recollection is that the zoning stops two houses away.

In terms of value / potential I think Russell is the best , But , say 5/6 years ago I think it would have been selling closer to 600.

When we bought our current house in 2001 , I'd guess Campbell Drive might have been around 300 .

Although all of those are around 900- 1 mill , they are the bottom of the market for Wahroonga . At around 1.2 - 1.3 you will find something nice with much more potential .

eg this sold at a highly competitive Auction last Saturday for 1,180,000.

Flat block , 923 . Liveable at the moment , but if you went and put in a good size project house , you'd get close to 2 mill , which you wouldn't be able to do in any of the other locations . If I was looking for an entry level house on the North shore , this is the sort of think I'd look at .

I wouldn't touch The campbell Drive or benson locations . If duff was exactly what you wanted , fine , Russell is ok , but I'd pay a bit more and buy something like Eden , but then again I'd try and get more and buy this which at 1.515 ( even though expectations were 1.35 ) I think is better value in particular in regards with location . There is a house on the market for between 2.5 - 3 mil a few yards away , and this has a better location.

Cliff
 
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edison said:
I live in Cherrybrook and even for this year I noticed the 4bedroom house prices has gone up to $1.2m from say $1m end of last year.

Castle Hill has a massive jump in prices. Even Townhouses around Castle Towers are in the mid/high 800K's ..... a 3 bedroom unit was sold for $920K!!!!!
Click to expand...

I'm in Castle Hill. We bought a 3/2/2 brick home on 700sqm at the bottom in 2011 - so ssshh, don't make people think they're paying too much! I'm enjoying this ;) hehe
 
see_change said:
Duff St is probably the best . Close to the station , but a steep street and gets parked out with commuters ( that does happen to anywhere close to the station , so not a negative price wise ) . The upper part of the street has been rezoned and there are already some units there . 11 a is not a house but a house split into two so not a comparison for stand alone houses . I think the other half sold ( or was valued ) at 1.3 , so total value for the " property " is over 2 mill . My recollection is that the zoning stops two houses away.

In terms of value / potential I think Russell is the best , But , say 5/6 years ago I think it would have been selling closer to 600.

When we bought our current house in 2001 , I'd guess Campbell Drive might have been around 300 .

Although all of those are around 900- 1 mill , they are the bottom of the market for Wahroonga . At around 1.2 - 1.3 you will find something nice with much more potential .

eg this sold at a highly competitive Auction last Saturday for 1,180,000.

Flat block , 923 . Liveable at the moment , but if you went and put in a good size project house , you'd get close to 2 mill , which you wouldn't be able to do in any of the other locations . If I was looking for an entry level house on the North shore , this is the sort of think I'd look at .

I wouldn't touch The campbell Drive or benson locations . If duff was exactly what you wanted , fine , Russell is ok , but I'd pay a bit more and buy something like Eden , but then again I'd try and get more and buy this which at 1.515 ( even though expectations were 1.35 ) I think is better value in particular in regards with location . There is a house on the market for between 2.5 - 3 mil a few yards away , and this has a better location.

Cliff
Click to expand...

Thank you for your insight. If it is my PPOR Duff Street would be fine for me, as I found out, I am not really a garden person and don't like too much maintenance, and even though it is duplex, it is very close to station. But then since I am not really looking for PPOR (my wife doesn't want to move to Upper North Shore), I still prefer free standing houses. But once the investment goes over $1M then I need to consider high stamp duty upfront costs as well as land tax to see if it is worth investing. So something like $1.3M or above, I really need really high CG to cover the shortfall of rent (yes -ve gearing helps a bit but loss is still a loss) as well as annual land tax/stamp duty costs. We prefer buy and hold so if I do buy those properties at UNS it would most likely I am better off moving into it and rent out my existing PPOR.

Your example above, the price is good but I noticed it is on the not so popular side of Turramurra. Not sure if there is big price difference between the two sides but I certainly need to do more homework at UNS areas. But yes, your suggestion of knockdown and rebuild would certainly unlock the value.
 
cenz said:
I'm in Castle Hill. We bought a 3/2/2 brick home on 700sqm at the bottom in 2011 - so ssshh, don't make people think they're paying too much! I'm enjoying this ;) hehe
Click to expand...

Congratulations! Castle Hill is absolutely booming especially with the NWRL and also Castle Towers expansion. I could see it as the new Chatswood!

Well I want Castle Hill to keep going up up and up, as it means Cherrybrook would also go up!
 
Wouldn't say it's not as popular . It's cheaper and there are more people who can afford something for 1 mill than 2.5 .... We live on the west side and have friends who live next door to the Duff St Property ( that's why I know about it )

Personally I wouldn't buy an IP on the UNS . For me it's a PPOR place . I agree the returns aren't as good and certainly at the moment some of the Capital Gain has already gone , in particular in the lower range .

We do have two properties on the north shore , but the one we bought last year was specifically bought as a downsizer in the middle of last year .

Ciff
 
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Joe Hockey is right, 'bubble' chatter is lazy analysis

From the Property Observer

Joe Hockey is right, 'bubble' chatter is lazy analysis

.......

Glenn Stevens continues to fret about ?soaring real estate prices? and has pumped out a series of Real Estate #101 lectures to the public; such as this platitude: ?People should be aware that real estate prices do not always rise. Sometimes they fall.?

Hockey?s absolutely right about lazy analysis. It?s just too easy to look at a single average figure for one-year price growth across our major cities and rush out a press release claiming a bubble in the hope of some cheap publicity? and media always obliges without ever thinking to ask a question or two.

......

Hockey said this week many parts of Australia had experienced no significant increase in property prices, therefore any action to cool the market must be "very targeted and it needs to have some capacity to be time-limited".

Here?s the bottom line, based on price data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Annual growth in prices has been 2% in Canberra, 3% in Darwin, 4% in Perth and in Hobart, 5% in Adelaide, 6% in Brisbane and 9% in Melbourne.

There is no Australian property boom. There has been, so far, a Sydney property boom.

Does that constitute a Sydney price bubble? Well, no. This is the first major growth in Sydney prices in 10 years. ANZ chief executive Phil Chronican commented: ?Sydney has been playing catch-up.?

Despite the growth of the past 18 months, the average annual rise in house prices in most Sydney suburbs has been 3% to 4% in the past decade. Prices have barely kept pace with inflation.

Even with the most vivid imagination, it is impossible to construct a bubble from those facts.

Cliff
 
Smart Buys ... ??

I was interested to see this article

Smart Buys in Sydney

Don't know about the others , but if a two bed room unit in neutral bay with car space doesn't sell for significantly over 600 , I'll be very surprised.

We gave up looking in Sydney over a year ago when we got Pseudo Gazumped on a two bedder in Manly , no views , no car space for 600 . Markets mover a lot since then.

Richard , any thoughts on the Marrickville .

Cliff
 
This just sold in Normanhurst for $1.27m :eek:

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-normanhurst-117950199

Recently, a corner block (nice brick house, renovated) sold in Thornleigh for $1.075m, and one in Normanhurst (brick, tidy but requiring reno) for $1.05m

I am not sure what the buyer was thinking.

Having been to the property - it is an old clad house, little or no storage, just one bathroom, one living area, no garage, and they didn't even have a proper drive way - just had gravel. Big easement at the back - the pool is next to the road. This was meant to be auctioned - but clearly $1.27m was too good an offer to let go.
 
see_change said:
Richard , any thoughts on the Marrickville .

Cliff
Click to expand...

I reckon it'll go well over the guide, much like the other properties in the article.

It's a pretty nifty home. That long courtyard area is pretty cool, and unusual. Though it is a bit odd that there's no floorplan shown. Might be because the internal living space is on the meagre side.
 
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monalisa said:
This just sold in Normanhurst for $1.27m :eek:

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-normanhurst-117950199

Recently, a corner block (nice brick house, renovated) sold in Thornleigh for $1.075m, and one in Normanhurst (brick, tidy but requiring reno) for $1.05m

I am not sure what the buyer was thinking.

Having been to the property - it is an old clad house, little or no storage, just one bathroom, one living area, no garage, and they didn't even have a proper drive way - just had gravel. Big easement at the back - the pool is next to the road. This was meant to be auctioned - but clearly $1.27m was too good an offer to let go.
Click to expand...

MonaLisa

How long ago did the other two properties sell . I'm wondering if we just going through a jump at the moment . If those were around a month ago , it would support that .

I was just search for the link to this property which sold in Turramurra for 1.26 , flat block , east side walk station in a good street when I noted that 20 poroperties had sold in turramurra in the last 20 days . While it's not a stat I track , I don't remember seeing that many recent sales when tracking through the sold listings On Realestate.com.au

20 in 20 days seems a lot . There will be some very happy RE Agents around at the moment . My 20 year old son has a friend who recently started as an agent in Mosman . He just sold his first house for 6.5 mill.

Cliff
 
Just listening to ABC 24 and the topic is the housing bubble . Apparently the RBA has raised concerns about a bubble and the possibility of macro changes
in their September 2014 Reserve Bank Financial Stability Review

What will happen ?

In my opinion , having seen what has happened time and time again , when the potential for changes are flagged , this will act as a further stimulus for the market as people rush to buy before the changes come in ...

So we may see the market ramp up even further in the next weeks / month or two .

Cliff
 
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