Sorry, I thoght you were engagning in a discussion which I / others could learn or at least benefit from, i.e. I thought you were being serious.
My mistake sorry
Sharemarket Sale: What stocks to look out for?
- Thread starter Kenster
- Start date
Sorry, I thoght you were engagning in a discussion which I / others could learn or at least benefit from, i.e. I thought you were being serious.
My mistake sorry
You know its ok to do nothing for long times at a stretch if nothing looks good. If you have cash, put it interest account. If not, have a holiday.
Something experienced investors advocate over and over.
Something experienced investors advocate over and over.
"What do people do when the stock market tanks? Property."
What utter tripe. Another entry for the great big book of property myths that have developed over the last 15 year property bubble...
Indeed!
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/08/chart-of-the-day-houses-and-shares/
Hi hobo-jo
Why not reinforce your argument with a more relevant chart and put up a chart showing Australian property price movements?
Cheers
Pete
This is actually not a bad idea for those that dont have time to sit in front of computer screens watching the market all day.
For those that have a life else where and are looking for more passive types of investment opportunities, leaving money in short term deposits (not too long otherwise one risks missing out on opportunities) still pays a reasonable return.
Australia is not the US or Europe where interest rates are effectively zero, at least in australia one does have an option of doing nothing and still being compensated for doing nothing.
With the share markets in a secular bear phase, even those buying at the bottom of the range, cannot just buy and hold, otherwise they run the risk of buying now at 'good' prices, seeing some nice capital appreciation, only to see that capital appreciation disapear on the next down turn.
My estimate is that the secular bear phase will still continue for several more years. The secular bear marekt wont end in my opinion until both
(a) global interest rates are returned to a 'normal rate'
(b) global debt levels are reduced to a more historical normal range.
because I only have the time of day to reply to throw away lines with a response in kind. Why should the onus be on me to disprove aarons troll or myth?
Excuse my memory, but which formula method do you use to calculate intrinsic value again?
depends on the industry, Return on Equity Per Share, Peter Lynch model+dividends, gross dividends (on sustainability basis), cash flow return on investment.
Intrinsic value is always just an estimation, so i keep things pretty simple.
Was looking for you to prove your assertion that the claim was, in your words "utter tripe"
Perhaps you could also use Australian property price movements after the share market tanked in '87,'94 and '02.
Good stuff. Happy to hear that you're not with the Roger Montgomery "one-size fits all formula" crowd mate.
I've just started reading / watching material by Bruce Greenwald.
His forumula is the first one i mentioned, which is the same as the basic valuation tool buffett once described in one of his letters.
Its a good tool, but it has a really really big risk.
If profit jumps all over the place, then so will 'intrinsic value'. So the risk is one buys a stock based on 'intrinsic value' at a particular profit figure, only to find that 'intrinsic value' plunge if the profit goes down. Especially risky way to value cyclical stocks or stocks that have just had a big profit increase (which maybe just a 'one off)
So basically this forumula should be used where profit figures are more stable (for example WOW). Munger i think said to use an across the cycle average approach, eg 5 year average, but this tends to complicate things.
This type of vaulation model also suits buffett as he tends to buy only companies with wide economic moats, ie companies with high barriers to entry and durable business models.
Right so AaronC makes a claim without proof, I refute it without proof... why am I always the one that needs to bring data to the table... charts on the last page. Make you own mind up.
Ben Graham used the five year average (well, he was one of the first, if not the first). Also, how does it make things complicated?
Confirmation bias, Joe. You're on a property investing forum. Bringing conflicting views to the table will always be resisted or critiqued.
You're not, you choose to bring the data to the table
His milkshake brings all the PI's to the yard.
I dunno, sounds like I'm the one being challenged for it...
So what's your verdict? Not that one chart proves anything but do you have any visual confirmation that investors could be buying property when stock markets tank?
lol
America needs QE3 to stave off the fall.
Though it probably doesn't achieve much - they end up importing inflation which is a longer-term issue.
Letting the world take the hit right now is probably better for the long run - but I AM NOT HAPPY ABOUT THE A$ FALLING. I still have 50% of cash in A$. NOT HAPPY
Yea. Roger's record isn't too flash is it.
