Some nice Supply Side numbers and charts

[warmed_cockles]

According to this site in 2006 it was $42,000 so about $45k now??
http://www.ofm.wa.gov/trends/tables/fig102.asp

This site says



I take it Manhattan appartments would be CBD, so they would be 35 times average US wage.

Average NY home works out at 19 times average US wage

According to the information provided

Dave

???

According to NAR and HUD the affordability index is around 7 at the moment. It was 9 in 3rd Q 2007. This is median house price to median income.

Check here

http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/new-york/new-york

Seems like you're cherry picking stats to make it look ridiculous.

 

[warmed_cockles]

Hi

Not baiting but why should a ratio be higher in one city or another (excepting perhaps for natural and man made amenities that may be valued by the community). Surely the whole argument of the D & G crowd has been, ad nauseum, that the average property price can't exceed the capacity of its average population to pay? This is why I find these ratios almost useless as it seems that it "depends" upon the population's willingness and capacity to pay rather than some arbitrary ratio.

I'd be interested why a ratio of 8 is acceptable in one country but 5 is unacceptable in another? Just seems contradictory to me.

Cheers

Shane

Primarily density becomes the problem. That is by far not a problem in Australian cities. But in New York and Tokyo, you are trying to fit the population of Australian in a spatial area smaller than Sydney.

 

[BoatBoy]

???

According to NAR and HUD the affordability index is around 7 at the moment. It was 9 in 3rd Q 2007. This is median house price to median income.

Check here

http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/new-york/new-york

Seems like you're cherry picking stats to make it look ridiculous.

Cherry picked nothing mate, they were the only numbers on the site provided.

Are you saying that New York CBD residences (not state) are $315k or are you saying average US wages are much higher than $45k?

Dave

 

[plusnq]

Primarily density becomes the problem. That is by far not a problem in Australian cities. But in New York and Tokyo, you are trying to fit the population of Australian in a spatial area smaller than Sydney.

I know these cities are densely populated, as is London. But that doesn't affect the capacity to pay. So why is a higher multiple acceptable there and not here? If the increased density means increased demand for limited housing, then isn't the affordability ratio null and void?

So is it capacity to pay or is it something else?

Cheers

Shane

 

[boz]

Cherry picked nothing mate, they were the only numbers on the site provided.

Are you saying that New York CBD residences (not state) are $315k or are you saying average US wages are much higher than $45k?

Dave

Manhattan wages are over 3 times the average US wage, so, compare the US average wage to Manhattan home prices doesn't make sense.
here are some numbers.

 

[warmed_cockles]

Cherry picked nothing mate, they were the only numbers on the site provided.

Are you saying that New York CBD residences (not state) are $315k or are you saying average US wages are much higher than $45k?

Dave

Those figures I provided are for NYC, not New York State.

 

[warmed_cockles]

Those figures I provided are for NYC, not New York State.

Here's what they were saying in New Zealand last year:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10435710

 

[BoatBoy]

Those figures I provided are for NYC, not New York State.

So, any examples of these average $315k houses in NYC?

or did I get it wrong, wages are much more than $45k for an individual?

I also notice your link is using income for a family, I thought that was a no no, the 3x rule is supposed to be worked out on a single wage supposedly, not a dual income.

Dave

 

[BoatBoy]

Manhattan wages are over 3 times the average US wage, so, compare the US average wage to Manhattan home prices doesn't make sense.
here are some numbers.

Doesnt make sense to me either but I thought that was what the d&gers keep saying, that the average wage earner should be able to buy an average house in the city, because their parents apparently used to be able to, ON A SINGLE INCOME.

Also are you saying that average wage earners that keep a city going (secretaries, bank tellers shop assistants, sandwich makers, cleaners, ambo's, firies etc etc) should not be allowed to live in the cities?

Dave

 

[depreciator]

I reckon it's hard enough comparing cities in Australia. Trying to compare cities here to those overseas is a bit pointless. You blokes could argue the toss for years and keep throwing new things into the mix.

Just getting back to the local supply/demand equation. I heard on the ABC news yesterday that 2,500 Aussie expats are leaving the UK every month and coming home. Lots of these would be people working in the finance industry and related services. The same would be happening with our expats in the US. (Yeah, I know the ABC news is no longer 100% reliable, but common sense would tell you that there is probably some truth in the above.)
And of course, the number of Aussies heading off to cushy expat jobs overseas would be negligible now.

Warning: Pure speculation coming up.

- I imagine many of the people heading home would be coming back to east coast capital cities - with Sydney taking more back than most because I bet more left Sydney.
- Many would be young people who will probably move back into home and their mums would be busily turning the sewing room nack into their bedroom.
- Some would be moving back with their families into homes they have been leasing out while away - and turfing out tenants.
- Others will be looking to rent - and probably in the more aspirational suburbs.
- Not many of them will find jobs here.

Not drawing any conclusions from this. I'll let people smarter than me do that. Could offset a mooted drop in skilled immigrants, though.

I'm expecting my cousin to lob soon. He sold his house in Albert Park (Melbourne) before the boom - ouch. Bought a house in the US before the crash - ouch. And was probably part paid in options (he works for Cisco) - I'm assuming 'ouch' without knowing what the Cisco share price has done lately.

Scott

 

[depreciator]

Depreciator,
That is pretty awful timing for your cousin, hopefully he didnt buy thatUS house in California or Miami ouch !

His house is in Seattle. Established area. It would not have been smashed like some other areas, but its value would have dropped. I'm only specualting that he'll be heading home with the ex-pat reverse wave. I haven't spoken to him for ages.
Scott