Steve Keen at it again

FWIW - we have a unit we are selling ATM.

Lower 3rd of price bracket, reasonable spot etc.

It was valued at around $240 not quite 2 years ago when we started proceedings to build our PPoR.

The best offer (which we have accepted) we have received is $210k....one last w/end and the buyer disappeared, and then another at $210k yesterday.

You could argue that if we didn't sell, it wouldn't have had a drop from the heady heights, but the reality is it needs to be offloaded and this is the best we could drum up in the current climate.

Good old Steve may have been close to correct.
 
Absolutely. Academics are involved in business, advocacy, policy, govt, research....on and on. I don't know what planet the poster lives on but it ain't earth.



Belbo said:
No, it's perfectly legitimate for academics to have an agenda. All of them do. Just as long as they do not use it as the standard for grading students, but rather grade students by their ability to critically analyse work deriving from competing agendas, that is fine. University is not kindergarten. Indeed, it's actually meant to be the nursery ground for new agendas.
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So a 12.5% fall assuming you could have got 240k, plenty of places have actually fallen the forseen 40% by S.K, just not the entire Australia market. As investors we have to deal in specific properties and not the abstract total housing market. Agreed about it being real money whether you sell or not.
 
Everyone is an absolute genius with the benefit of hindsight.


Fifth said:
Isn't that a bit like betting on a football game then crying 'they would've won if Bazza hadn't pulled his hamstring'? Possibly true, but doesn't change the fact they didn't win.
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evand said:
No, there's only one 'would have'. If it wasnt for the stimulus he would have been correct in my opinion. Or close to it.

The economy and property market were heading south big time.
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And what do you sugest the reserve bank should do when the economy and jobs are contracting.Do you know what the RBA mandate is:confused:
 
My point was its so easy to be a sheep and criticise in hindsight, especially without doing anything yourself or putting yourself out there. I'm not criticising anyone and either is Keen. So WTF?


Aaron Sice said:
what the farknuckle?

YOU just said that if it weren't for govt intervention, keen would be right?

mate, time to step off.
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Yes i do.

But it happens all over the world and its happened in Australia previously where the govt. doesn't intervene to such a huge extent. In fact it was too effective, proven by the need to raise rates in the following years. Who could have predicted that? Maybe Aaron. :rolleyes:


atsim said:
And what do you sugest the reserve bank should do when the economy and jobs are contracting.Do you know what the RBA mandate is:confused:
Click to expand...
 
evand said:
My point was its so easy to be a sheep and criticise in hindsight, especially without doing anything yourself or putting yourself out there.
Click to expand...

So you admit the graph posted in post # 13 is correct, and Keen got it woefully wrong, and so did you.

Why does it take 48 posts for you to 'fess up that you were wrong, and so was he ??

Arguing black is white and white is black seems to be your speciality.
 
evand said:
The huge govt stimulus in 08 threw the 7-12 cycle out the window. If the cycle were left to purely market forces, house prices would have been trending down.

Maybe that's happening,the stimulus might have just moved the timeline by 4 years.
Click to expand...

On the converse, if the bloody gov/ultra rich manipulators didnt keep puting speed bumps/ road spikes and finaly ,concrete barriers ( ie EXCESSIVELY HIGH CASH RATES) in the way, a lot of us wise stewards of our finance would be a lot richer. But the powers that be dont want that:rolleyes:
 
evand said:
My point was its so easy to be a sheep and criticise in hindsight,
Click to expand...

Actually - from memory - most of us were going WTF as soon as he said it, before we had the benefit of any hindsight.

The statement was so ridiculous, from a logical coal-face standpoint, that no hindsight was required. And, yes, I did lose out with the 2004 bubble burst - just not the one Keen predicted.
 
All I see here in Brisbane is a lack of activity in cottage conveyancing and prices that I would have jumped at 2 years ago that now I won't touch as I adopt a wait and see attitude.

40%? Not yet. The property market is not what it used to be though.
 
I am seeing some absolutely great opportunites in my own backyard, first time in years.

Houses on development sites where the rent will come close to covering the loan.... my glass is half full.

MTR
 
Lol, so the excuse of Steven Keen and his followers is that he would have been right, but he wasn't because he doesn't understand the effects of Monetary and Fiscal policies on an economy.

Sounds perfectly reasonable for someone who teaches economics:eek:

This guys main value is to be used as a bet against as a contrarian investor.
 
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