Steve Keen

[evand]

That sounds vaguely like a threat. I didn't insult you (i apologise if it came across that way) but i don't appreciate reading stuff like that on a property investment forum.

You have to put it in perspective. Who cares if someone thinks property is going to fall 40%. As long as you know its isn't, that's all that matters. Why do you care what some bloody academic professor says.

And as someone mentioned, you dont know his reason for buying and selling. Would be good if you did tho. We'd all like to know.

For what its worth, i disagree with him as well. I think property will fall, but nowhere near that much. And you know, there is a small chance he's right, no one really knows.

evand, point taken. I do get emotional. But let me be clear, don't insult me again on this forum directly again please.

 

[ffc1883_1996]

I guess we will all know a couple years down the road.

or maybe in twenty years

 

[tcocaro]

this made me gag, Keen talking about the FHOG increase..

"There maybe a short-term filip, which I would hate to see because they are already at ridiculous levels."

?? hate to see? hes banking on it to sell his house?

I wont be posting anymore for a while, i believe the current climate polarizes people to much and I am not really interested in picking fights on this forum.

I was only inflamed about this topic because Keen would have no doubt costed people money, when they took what on face value seems to be an independent view from a assoc.prof and sold their properties for whatever price they could get when he didn't even take his own advice...

In short his actions are in complete contradiction with his statements and I believe that to be misleading.

hello,

http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/view_article.ac?articleId=234936

lets all get on debtwatch or whatever it is called, oh yeah he has admitted to having a mortgage previously

thanks
myla

 

[tcocaro]

"That sounds vaguely like a threat" please, i have my name, address and phone number on this forum. I was being concise as i don't like being insulted, i didnt insult you and the least you could do is extend the same courtesy. "get a life" is hard to be misinterpreted so lets not beat around the bush shall we.

evand... if he was convinced prices would fall why not sell? why not accept 505k? why not sell at auction? it got passed in right?

I am not trying to understanding his motives... but his actions have spoken much louder than his words that is he DOESNT beleive prices will fall.

lets just leave it at that... well agree to disagree.. like i said dont want to pick fights, just not interested.

That sounds vaguely like a threat. I didn't insult you (i apologise if it came across that way) but i don't appreciate reading stuff like that on a property investment forum.

You have to put it in perspective. Who cares if someone thinks property is going to fall 40%. As long as you know its isn't, that's all that matters. Why do you care what some bloody academic professor says.

And as someone mentioned, you dont know his reason for buying and selling. Would be good if you did tho. We'd all like to know.

For what its worth, i disagree with him as well. I think property will fall, but nowhere near that much. And you know, there is a small chance he's right, no one really knows.

 

[myla]

hello,

i will keep it going for you tcocaro,

bluffing people for a long time, classic stuff

i was surprised when i heard months ago that he had property and mortgage and therefore being part of those infamous debt statistics,

really got to question the authors of all these blogs,

thanks
myla

 

[Daz]

That sounds vaguely like a threat. I didn't insult you (i apologise if it came across that way) but i don't appreciate reading stuff like that on a property investment forum.

You have to put it in perspective. Who cares if someone thinks property is going to fall 40%. As long as you know its isn't, that's all that matters. Why do you care what some bloody academic professor says.

And as someone mentioned, you dont know his reason for buying and selling. Would be good if you did tho. We'd all like to know.

For what its worth, i disagree with him as well. I think property will fall, but nowhere near that much. And you know, there is a small chance he's right, no one really knows.

Don't worry Tcocaro, Evand continues to make a fool of himself every time he submits a post. He also doesn’t display any manners or tolerance of opinions that may differ to his, and has a track record of getting personal when responding. As for this rubbish of complaining every time a post is “emotional”…. so what, why would upset anyone??

 

[ffc1883_1996]

... I was only inflamed about this topic because Keen would have no doubt cost people money, when they took what on face value seems to be an independent view from a assoc.prof and sold their properties for whatever price they could get when he didn't even take his own advice...

I agree with almost all you’ve said – and I’ve absolutely no problem with the emotional way it was delivered.

One small point of difference if I may: Keen has NOT cost anyone any money (except for himself possibly). People are responsible for their own decisions.

 

[tcocaro]

I can live with that.

One small point of difference if I may: Keen has NOT cost anyone any money (except for himself possibly). People are responsible for their own decisions.

 

[evand]

I'd say that's the pot calling the kettle black Daz. You should have a read your own posts mate. Especially the ones where you put people down directly, not to mention the ones where you use the kings olde english....theyre a hoot...oh and dont forget the ones where you constantly tell the forum of your achievements.

I don't mind emotional stuff but it was going a bit far for an investor to get so carried away and angry because some academic guy thinks the market is going to fall 40%. Whats that all about?

And are people forgetting he's entitled to his opinion.

Don't worry Tcocaro, Evand continues to make a fool of himself every time he submits a post. He also doesn’t display any manners or tolerance of opinions that may differ to his, and has a track record of getting personal when responding. As for this rubbish of complaining every time a post is “emotional”…. so what, why would upset anyone??

 

[Daz]

I'd say that's the pot calling the kettle black Daz. You should have a read your own posts mate. Especially the ones where you put people down directly, not to mention the ones where you use the kings olde english....theyre a hoot...oh and dont forget the ones where you constantly tell the forum of your achievements.

I don't mind emotional stuff but it was going a bit far for an investor to get so carried away and angry because some academic guy thinks the market is going to fall 40%. Whats that all about?

And are people forgetting he's entitled to his opinion.

Which achievements are you referring to evand?? can you please indicate where in any of my previous 16 posts I have listed or even mentioned personal achievements, or are you again confusing me with Dazz?? You might like to check the spelling and refer to Dazz's prior advice to you in relation to this mis understanding.

 

[plusnq]

And are people forgetting he's entitled to his opinion.

I think people are pointing out the inconsistency between his rhetoric and his actions.



I don't think anyone said he couldn't have an opinion. It's the age old "put up or shut up"

Cheers

Shane

 

[Peter 14.7]

Hello Everyone

I was going to post an opinion but I expect a reported post shortly so to save me that ........please be civil.

You can be passionate but not personal. And really, it demeans your arguement?

Evan, sorry but "get a life" is personal. You can say I disagree, that is unfair, etc.. but not that. The rest flows from there....

So, back on topic, having read it all I ask:

If the professor is so confident prices are going to drop 40% he should have took the $500k and run.

I love property but if I knew they would drop 40% and I add, rents will do the same, I would sell them all now. Except PPOR, maybee even that! Cold Turkey

In fact, I did sell my PPOR in Surry Hills @ $521k in 2005. Did very ok from 1996 but would have got more in 2003. Make the calls as you see them.....

With all this pump priming we may well see another 87 to 90 style boom. The professor may be reconsidering.

Peter

 

[evand]

I wouldn't think buying and selling a property is hypocritical. Even if its a loss.
We don't know his reasons.

What really gets me going is that anyone who dares talks the market down or expresses their opinion that the market will fall cops it with both barrells on this forum. And that's just unfair.

Whatever happened to balanced debate on a forum?

I think people are pointing out the inconsistency between his rhetoric and his actions.



I don't think anyone said he couldn't have an opinion. It's the age old "put up or shut up"

Cheers

Shane

 

[evand]

Yes, you're right and i apologised to Tcacaro as i realised it was a bit OTT after i posted. As i said, (mentioned in another post) its really gets to me that anyone who dares talks down the property market just cops it. I got a bit carried away and again i apologise for that.

Evan, sorry but "get a life" is personal. You can say I disagree, that is unfair, etc.. but not that. The rest flows from there....

 

[ianvestor]

Article in text

any chance of having a better scan attached?

I typed it out for people having trouble reading it... don't know if the text was available on the web somewhere, but it was good accuracy practice...

It was a bearish Steve Keen, professor of economics at the University of Western Sydney, who put his Surry Hills apartment up for auction in Sydney's innercity on the weekend.

And it will be an even more bearish Keen this week, after he knocked back a bid of $505,000 before the the two-bedroom Ch??? Street unit was passed in.

The not-so-keen professor stuck his neck out two weeks ago when he claimed that Australia's property market would fall 40 per cent in the next five years. He's the most bearish by some margin - even resident sharemarket bear Gerard Minack of Morgan Stanley was predicting only 30 per cent fall ?? the worst properties.

But Keen was the only one who put his money where is mouth is - and his ??? on TV while he did it - where listing his abode ahead of what for many Australians would be a cataclysm.

Keen plans to switch his investments to cash, join the ever-growing rental queue and buy back in at a cheaper price in a few years' time when the apocalypse passes.

A buyer's guide of $800,000 to - $550,000 was given on the advertising material, but as Keen bought the property in 2005 for $480,000, he will lose on his purchase after he deducts the stamp duty, legal fees, agent's commission, advertising costs and auction dues.

That's not to mention too his anxiety levels.

 

[willfong]

I wouldn't think buying and selling a property is hypocritical. Even if its a loss.
We don't know his reasons.

What really gets me going is that anyone who dares talks the market down or expresses their opinion that the market will fall cops it with both barrells on this forum. And that's just unfair.

Whatever happened to balanced debate on a forum?

Again, we are calling him hypocrite because he obviously wanted to sell at the time (hence the auction) but decided the market was undervaluing his property at that time (by not taking up the auction price being passed in). It's a bit rich for someone who keeps preaching the market is grossly overvalued not to accept the passed in offer which reflected the market at the time.

 

[ianvestor]

Again, we are calling him hypocrite because he obviously wanted to sell at the time (hence the auction) but decided the market was undervaluing his property at that time (by not taking up the auction price being passed in). It's a bit rich for someone who keeps preaching the market is grossly overvalued not to accept the passed in offer which reflected the market at the time.

Apparently the market means everyone's houses except your own.

Just like 'society' means everyone but you

 

[evand]

Are you sure? He might be negotiating after the auction. As i said, who knos? This is getting like a witch hunt.

This doesnt sound too hypocritical to me:

"Keen plans to switch his investments to cash, join the ever-growing rental queue and buy back in at a cheaper price in a few years' time when the apocalypse passes."

It's a bit rich for someone who keeps preaching the market is grossly overvalued not to accept the passed in offer which reflected the market at the time.

 

[Token Funder]

Tcocaro,

I've read some average stuff on this forum but your over emotional ranting takes the cake. Seriously mate, get a life.

Seconded...except for the get a life comment

With respect to all, I suspect there are actually very few investors on this site.

They are those participants who look at property as an asset class that they understand - with all the wrinkles, warts, risks that it has - and on balance see it as a good play if well thought through.

They understand risk and return, will make money over time and won't be panicking as the market goes down nor tripling their exposure just because the market jumps up.

They know who they are.

On the other hand, by volume (pun intended) we have the evangelists who have been convinced by the usual suspects that property is more magic than asset class and, like religious fundamentalists, are ultimately so desperate to maintain their faith that anyone suggesting that their dogma might be flawed in some sort of antichrist.

They are the punters that I see on my list of mortgagee in possession files each month.

 

[BayView]

Just heard him on ABC radio again - he's on a roll. Do we know that he has debt on this place?
It's all a little bit like Jenman, the anti auction preacher, buying his own house at auction.

I'm definitely not inflamed - I'm just learning about and observing the behaviour of people and the media toward some contrived abyss that we are all about to fall into. Maybe I've got my head stuck in the sand?

In fairness to Neil, sometimes there is simply no other way to buy a home in a particular neighborhood except by auction. He no doubt selected a really good suburb.

Many of the "postcode" suburbs around Melb operate this way. Go to somewhere like Sandringham and the most mundane orange brick 2 x 1 unit will be auctioned, and they are a dime a dozen. The agents have built up a culture in these areas, and everyone thinks it's the way to go to sell their joint.

I think the thing with Steve Keen when relating him to this forum is that we are all onto him, while many people (including Kerry O'Brien) aren't.

This is a terrific reflection of our financial and economic intelligence here at SS - far more than the average sheep.

But don't blame Steve; he's obviously stuffed up and made his own worst mistake; even the best experts get it wrong, but blame the TV and Radio stations; they are the ones who keep letting him on the air.

Why? because he says extreme things which make good news.