Unchanged For Now - Maybe a Cut in May 2015?

[Cassandra]

An interest rate cut is inevitable. In fact, we can expect a few of them this year.

Pity it did not happen this month.

http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2015/mr-15-05.html

 

[almostthere]

An interest rate cut is inevitable. In fact, we can expect a few of them this year.

Pity it did not happen this month.

http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2015/mr-15-05.html

Thank god they didn't cut it ..so the party will continue (sustain) at least for little longer..

 

[PRP]

Wonder what the impact would be when the rates start rising eventually.. would the property market sink with distress sales flooding the market?

 

[kamchatsky]

Good to see no rate cut ..... Aussie dollar has tanked, oil prices has dropped, IR already lowest in a very long time. Cutting more IR isn't gonna help the economy much.

 

[ZachAnSel]

May rate cut for sure..

 

[S.T]

Good time to buy in Frankston!

 

[Peter_Tersteeg]

I'm quite happy they didn't cut. My economics view is only looking at the property market, but in general property needs to cool off, not to be kicked on by positive sentiment based on more rate cuts. The wider economy may need low rates, but the property market doesn't.

It's nice personally to get a rate cut, I like my cash flow position at the moment. The problem is that property is getting too overheated at the moment and as much as we all like strong equity positions, property market bubbles aren't good for anyone and that's where we're going if the RBA cuts rates further.

 

[Aaron Sice]

just wait for the US Fed announcements.

they're the one's that have an effect here, not our silly little RBA.

 

[hobo-jo]

just wait for the US Fed announcements.

they're the one's that have an effect here, not our silly little RBA.

Policy changes by the Federal Reserve have far reaching implications for all major economies, but to suggest that RBA's changes have no impact here? Ya kidding yourself!

 

[skater]

Good time to buy in Frankston!

Shhhh........

We don't need another thread about Frankston.

 

[charlieandkath]

Policy changes by the Federal Reserve have far reaching implications for all major economies, but to suggest that RBA's changes have no impact here? Ya kidding yourself!

Interesting graph that one hobo-jo. Back in 03/04 boom it took a rise of 1% in rates to put the fire out and that took 18 months. If repeats again we have that 18 month buffer plus the time between now and the beginning of that 18 months which could be circa say another 12 months. You beauty - another 2.5 years of rising property in Sydney.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Policy changes by the Federal Reserve have far reaching implications for all major economies, but to suggest that RBA's changes have no impact here? Ya kidding yourself!

i was being facetious.

 

[Truly Exotic]

im hoping they start raising it by the end of this year, I think the property market is getting a bit too hot and a few warning signs

 

[rizzle]

im hoping they start raising it by the end of this year, I think the property market is getting a bit too hot and a few warning signs

But the property market is just one cog that the RBA considers in a very large machine. Most other cogs are flat or bearish (iron ore anyone?) so the general sentiment from economists is for more interest rate easing over the next 12 months (markets are pricing another two cuts over the next 6 months or so), and for a similar 12 to 18 months ahead (i.e. no rate hikes).

 

[unloadmymind]

Wonder what the impact would be when the rates start rising eventually.. would the property market sink with distress sales flooding the market?

the only reason for rates to go up is inflation.

where is inflation going?

and economists have calculated that low rates are the New Normal.

with very high levels of debt we currently have, we only require a small increase in rates to get the desired effect on inflation.

 

[Truly Exotic]

But the property market is just one cog that the RBA considers in a very large machine. Most other cogs are flat or bearish (iron ore anyone?) so the general sentiment from economists is for more interest rate easing over the next 12 months (markets are pricing another two cuts over the next 6 months or so), and for a similar 12 to 18 months ahead (i.e. no rate hikes).

of course, however, for the average person, low interest rates = wow, im rich and its time for me to buy, especially if every joe and jane is becoming property millionaries according to the media

 

[rizzle]

of course, however, for the average person, low interest rates = wow, im rich and its time for me to buy, especially if every joe and jane is becoming property millionaries according to the media

Oh yeah I agree on that front

 

[rizzle]

Bang on 50-50 odds of a cut next month now. I think I read that employment numbers have been better than expected, and with the RBA preferring stability where possible I'm leaning towards no change next month.

 

[windyzz]

Yeah I think there won't be any change... But out dollar is buying 79 c USD... So I don't know what RBA view on that. Definitely high aud is hurting our economy

 

[rizzle]

Indeed. For my own shopping habits I would prefer a higher AUD. But for the prosperity of our tourism/exports/country in general we probably need it closer to 70c USD (the number that Glenn Stevens keeps banging on about).