What (in your opinion) are the "big differences" between a recession and depression?
i'm sure someone can google the official difference. If you want a practicle example, look at the state of fear in the global market place between Nov08-March 09. You wont get this from the media which is always hyping something, but if you have contacts in senior business/treasury management/ or large business owners talk to them. Now imagine that state of fear existing for several years. Thats a depression. Its truely terrifying.
Broader unemployment in the US is over 17%, arguably the highest level it's been since the Great Depression.
So what was broading unemployment say in 2007 & 2008 im sure it was higher than the official unemployment statistics.
Also look at the trend in new unemployment. This is the key its a very nice inverse bell curve.
While most say now that the US is not in a depression, I suspect in 20 years time looking back that most will consider the depression to have started in 2008.
You suspect, i mean this in a non-offensive manner, but your feelings have no relevance on what the market will do (not from an individual point anyway, if you can convince 50% of the population to think the same way then im scared)
It's not like we look back at the Great Depression and see the market rally 30% leading into early 1930 and then claim the depression started after it started to decline again. The Great Depression by most is considered to have started in 1929.
You really need to understand the catalysts of the great depression and compare it to this current period.
We are not in a time repeat loop here.
Again i emphasise that i dont think things are going to be all rosy over the next several years, i just think a depression is a very remote probability and thus i am investing accordingly.
If you really think a depression is around the corner, i honestly dont know what you do. I dont think gold is the answer since this is a free marketable asset (and hence subject to trading above/below its intrinsic value). Maybe buy a farm and a gun.