Well look at the data & the attached graphs Evand
These are sourced from investsmart and show trends from 1999.
Now tell me if prices have bottomed in these 2 suburbs.
Aimjoy
Watanobbi, NSW Central Coast
- Thread starter tiger
- Start date
Well look at the data & the attached graphs Evand
These are sourced from investsmart and show trends from 1999.
Now tell me if prices have bottomed in these 2 suburbs.
Aimjoy
I love opinions from people who probably haven't studied the market as close as most.
As someone who has been closely scrutinising Central Coast houses everyday for the past 3 months, and having talked to at least 15 real estate agents from all walks of life, I think I'm fairly qualified to comment.
Where did I hear that prices had bottomed out? Why, agents of course.
As someone who has been closely scrutinising Central Coast houses everyday for the past 3 months, and having talked to at least 15 real estate agents from all walks of life, I think I'm fairly qualified to comment.
Where did I hear that prices had bottomed out? Why, agents of course.
Report via Residex: Take it however you like. Just for information purposes.
Projected CG for next 5 years compound - also projecting CPI of 4%.
Berkeley Vale - 3%
Blue Haven - 6%
No idea on Kanwal yet I would be interested to see what % they think it will make.
I have studied the market, and I can identify several growth drivers for around the northern region of the coast (Kanwal, Charmhaven, Bluehaven etc..).
Projected CG for next 5 years compound - also projecting CPI of 4%.
Berkeley Vale - 3%
Blue Haven - 6%
No idea on Kanwal yet I would be interested to see what % they think it will make.
I have studied the market, and I can identify several growth drivers for around the northern region of the coast (Kanwal, Charmhaven, Bluehaven etc..).
Having seen Long Jetty transform from single story bungalows to multi dwelling/units over the last 12/15yrs....I would have thought Killarney Vale was a fair target ....being right next door...?
There are knockdown/new builds happening there on a regular basis and they are mostly multi/townhouse or ya big mcMansions...most likely built by small business owners who wish to stay just 2-3 mins from the beach major shopping and schools.
The demographic is as diverse as you will get....within the same suburbs there are $M property down to the $250/300k.
Too diverse to call 90% low socio economic....90% the area is placed adjacent to water, beach and lakes, and major businesss has relocated there.....not something to tank I would think....
Sustainable growth fuelled by these major businesses bringing the labour with them places the Central Coast in a new position compared to the 90's.
Most of the relocating businesses are near Tuggerah and Somersby...both on the freeway and adjacent to the western coastal suburbs where the working class live.
I have found the lower socio economic to being forced even further west and/or out of the area altogether.
I declare my interest: 1 IP each in Wamberal, Tumbi Umbi and Killarney Vale...
If I were to be on the buy it would not be Watanobbie....has anybody mentioned it is built on the old Wyong garbage tip....then again so is the new Magenta Shores built on the old The Entrance tip...Sssshhhh!
Good luck Tiger.
....from someone who has closely scrutinised housing on the Central Coast for over 12 years..!
There are knockdown/new builds happening there on a regular basis and they are mostly multi/townhouse or ya big mcMansions...most likely built by small business owners who wish to stay just 2-3 mins from the beach major shopping and schools.
The demographic is as diverse as you will get....within the same suburbs there are $M property down to the $250/300k.
Too diverse to call 90% low socio economic....90% the area is placed adjacent to water, beach and lakes, and major businesss has relocated there.....not something to tank I would think....
Sustainable growth fuelled by these major businesses bringing the labour with them places the Central Coast in a new position compared to the 90's.
Most of the relocating businesses are near Tuggerah and Somersby...both on the freeway and adjacent to the western coastal suburbs where the working class live.
I have found the lower socio economic to being forced even further west and/or out of the area altogether.
I declare my interest: 1 IP each in Wamberal, Tumbi Umbi and Killarney Vale...
If I were to be on the buy it would not be Watanobbie....has anybody mentioned it is built on the old Wyong garbage tip....then again so is the new Magenta Shores built on the old The Entrance tip...Sssshhhh!
Good luck Tiger.
....from someone who has closely scrutinised housing on the Central Coast for over 12 years..!
How do you know prices will rise from here? I didnt say "think" or "hope" but know.
Noone knows what the market will do and to to definitely say you KNOW the market has bottomed is ridiculous.
I reckon most of the central coast has further falls to go but even if it stays flat for 5 or more years, its effectively the same thing.
There is nothing to drive demand (if there is please enlighten me) in the areas you are mentioning and asking real estate agents opinion of the market is like me asking my mother in law her opinion of my wife. Just a little bit biased.
I have studied the central coast market as i have property there. And i have also seen a few 'sold' signs popping up for the first time in a while. When i dig a little deeper tho, i found the prices these sold properties sold for are substantially below the asking price. And the discount % is becoming larger, meaning a trend of prices falling.
Any property will sell in any market if its cheap enough and thats whats happening. And its what continues to put downward pressure on prices. Until something comes along to create a bit of buyer competition in the market that reverses that downward pressure, prices will continue to fall regardless of how many "sold" signs are out there. It isn't the only indicator to a rising market.
I'll ask again, how do you know the market has bottomed?
ps: I dont think i'm a D&Ger, i just have a different opinion to you. I thought that's what forums - by definition - are for.
Noone knows what the market will do and to to definitely say you KNOW the market has bottomed is ridiculous.
I reckon most of the central coast has further falls to go but even if it stays flat for 5 or more years, its effectively the same thing.
There is nothing to drive demand (if there is please enlighten me) in the areas you are mentioning and asking real estate agents opinion of the market is like me asking my mother in law her opinion of my wife. Just a little bit biased.
I have studied the central coast market as i have property there. And i have also seen a few 'sold' signs popping up for the first time in a while. When i dig a little deeper tho, i found the prices these sold properties sold for are substantially below the asking price. And the discount % is becoming larger, meaning a trend of prices falling.
Any property will sell in any market if its cheap enough and thats whats happening. And its what continues to put downward pressure on prices. Until something comes along to create a bit of buyer competition in the market that reverses that downward pressure, prices will continue to fall regardless of how many "sold" signs are out there. It isn't the only indicator to a rising market.
I'll ask again, how do you know the market has bottomed?
ps: I dont think i'm a D&Ger, i just have a different opinion to you. I thought that's what forums - by definition - are for.
Yes I can - as can anyone with an internet connection and some access to sales data. Please see the 5 year graph attached, sourced from the Commonwealth Bank from Apr 03 to present day in 08. Looks pretty damned flat to slightly trending down me
This is simply just plain UNTRUE. I keep in regualr contact with local REA's and a close one in Charmhaven sold 18 properties last month - one of their best months on record.
Evand, you are approaching my definition of the D&G category and although I enjoy the banter, I'm pretty much over your negativity and might just put you on the "ignore" list. (Big Deal I hear you say.)
Hey I'm not a pie in the sky either but I don't think you need to talk down the market (or talk it up it that is not what is actually happening either).
Aimjoy
I really like Killarney Vale but there was nothing there for my price as far as size goes. Under $300k gets you a pretty small house.
Our offer was accepted on a house at Kanwal. Brick, granny flat and almost 1000sqm land.
Congrats Tiger!!
We've just moved up to the Central Coast - and have been looking around Terrigal/Wamberal areas to see what we could get with out money. It is definitely a buyers market here!! I can't believe how many phone calls from Agents I received from just 2 Saturdays out to some opens - at least 6 or 7 a day. They've been almost begging us to put in a offer.
As we've just started looking at this market, I'm not sure if this is normal, or if we're not at the bottom yet. Either way, the low yields aren't enough to justify the risk at the moment - so we've decided to set our sights on Sydney's inner west and re-visit Terrigal/Wamberal in 6-12 months.
It is incredibly beautiful out there though!!!
Congrats again!!
Cheers,
Jen
We've just moved up to the Central Coast - and have been looking around Terrigal/Wamberal areas to see what we could get with out money. It is definitely a buyers market here!! I can't believe how many phone calls from Agents I received from just 2 Saturdays out to some opens - at least 6 or 7 a day. They've been almost begging us to put in a offer.
As we've just started looking at this market, I'm not sure if this is normal, or if we're not at the bottom yet. Either way, the low yields aren't enough to justify the risk at the moment - so we've decided to set our sights on Sydney's inner west and re-visit Terrigal/Wamberal in 6-12 months.
It is incredibly beautiful out there though!!!
Congrats again!!
Cheers,
Jen
In regards to the few comments that Central Coast values only rise in line with national movements, or when the boom moves from Sydney, there is another fundamental factor to consider.
That is baby boomers moving to the area, there are a lot of baby boomers who have hit their peak spending years but haven't been able to purchase (for a lifestyle change or for speculative reasons) due to uncertainty in the market. This will have an impact on prices in coastal areas within 2 hours of Sydney.
It may only be a small factor but there will defintely be a lot more qualified buyers in the general area than ever before, and they'll be comparing prices against their existing sydney home.
That is baby boomers moving to the area, there are a lot of baby boomers who have hit their peak spending years but haven't been able to purchase (for a lifestyle change or for speculative reasons) due to uncertainty in the market. This will have an impact on prices in coastal areas within 2 hours of Sydney.
It may only be a small factor but there will defintely be a lot more qualified buyers in the general area than ever before, and they'll be comparing prices against their existing sydney home.
I have been hearing this for so long its not funny. The central coast is already a very high retiree area and most of them low income and/or relying on benefits.
I cant see anything to drive up property values on the central coast. If anyone can, please enlighten me. I would love to see growth as i own property there.
I cant see anything to drive up property values on the central coast. If anyone can, please enlighten me. I would love to see growth as i own property there.
Time to revisit this thread:
I will talk about two suburbs mainly as they are where we have IP's....
Killarney Vale & Tumbi Umbi.
A few months ago the number of properties available to rent (on the Realestate.com and Domain websites) between $0 - $400/wk were well over 60.
Today there are just 15......
Take the rent range down to 300/wk and there are only 5.....in two suburbs.
And the asking rent rates for those individual properties are well in excess of past rates.....
I normally keep a closer eye on these numbers but been very busy in my day jobs and resigned to the thought I'm in this for the long haul so not to worry.....also have raised rents effective next month so sit time.....but if this keeps up a 6 monthly review is on the cards
But to discover this shortfall on supply at this time was a revelation to say the least.....a confirmation that demand is exceeding supply or demand the same but supply down....either way the rents are rising and fast.....today....!
I will be keeping closer watch on this in the coming months.....
The other suburb we have an IP is Wamberal and the numbers of rentables have dropped dramatically as well as for sales. Rents exceeding there as well...
I will talk about two suburbs mainly as they are where we have IP's....
Killarney Vale & Tumbi Umbi.
A few months ago the number of properties available to rent (on the Realestate.com and Domain websites) between $0 - $400/wk were well over 60.
Today there are just 15......
Take the rent range down to 300/wk and there are only 5.....in two suburbs.
And the asking rent rates for those individual properties are well in excess of past rates.....
I normally keep a closer eye on these numbers but been very busy in my day jobs and resigned to the thought I'm in this for the long haul so not to worry.....also have raised rents effective next month so sit time.....but if this keeps up a 6 monthly review is on the cards
But to discover this shortfall on supply at this time was a revelation to say the least.....a confirmation that demand is exceeding supply or demand the same but supply down....either way the rents are rising and fast.....today....!
I will be keeping closer watch on this in the coming months.....
The other suburb we have an IP is Wamberal and the numbers of rentables have dropped dramatically as well as for sales. Rents exceeding there as well...
Pols,
I think the REA term used is "poised for growth".
Plenty of good property, in Budgy within walking distance to the beach. Lake & views as well. Good small shopping centres in both places. Toukley next to Noraville & Norah Head - both soughtafter and with good CG. Budgewoi has been a bit of a sleeper but has all the attributes to go ahead when it gets discovered IMHO.
FWIT I did not agree with Lomas's comments in the API article.....but I'm biased.
yeah I thought Lomas's coments put a bit of a dampiner on the whole thing.
If land is in limited supply, and its all close to the beach and lakes and if council go ahead with rezoneing and the Warnervale development of commercial, industrial, residential and retail estates, this has got to be good for CG and rental yeilds too In my own opinion.
What is the most desired suburbs to buy into out of Toukley, Canton Beach, Noraville, Norah Head and Budgewoi in order and for what reasons? Dont know the area heaps well (yet)
If land is in limited supply, and its all close to the beach and lakes and if council go ahead with rezoneing and the Warnervale development of commercial, industrial, residential and retail estates, this has got to be good for CG and rental yeilds too In my own opinion.
What is the most desired suburbs to buy into out of Toukley, Canton Beach, Noraville, Norah Head and Budgewoi in order and for what reasons? Dont know the area heaps well (yet)
Theyre all pretty dodgy areas with low socio economic population. Lots of retirees and people on benefits etc and that end of the coast is not real close to Sydney which doesnt help.
The central coast has long periods of no or declining cap growth and now is one of them. Why are you interested in that particular area?
The central coast has long periods of no or declining cap growth and now is one of them. Why are you interested in that particular area?
Those suburbs are no more dodgy than Sydney's western suburbs sorry to say. I recently bought in one of the above mentioned suburbs, across the road from the lake, 5 mins to beach, Coles down the road. I haven't read API but looks like they've hit it on the head, the area is improving all the time.
Polsator - Norah Head is not in the same league as most of the other suburbs you mention. Its more exclusive and expensive. So what is your budget?
Polsator - Norah Head is not in the same league as most of the other suburbs you mention. Its more exclusive and expensive. So what is your budget?
in order: Norah Head, Noraville, Canton Beach, Toukley and then Budgewoi
My parents live in Berkley Vale and where they are is not to bad but I think it is the high side of the area. They were commenting to me that Long Jetty was going to be done up as it is a little daggy driving into The Entrance.
I don't really mind Shelly Beach and Blue Bay or even some parts of Long Jetty for older homes. Like with any area there are good and bad everywhere.
I am sure there are always homes coming up at the Central Coast as we always joke that the area is " Gods waiting room " lol
I don't really mind Shelly Beach and Blue Bay or even some parts of Long Jetty for older homes. Like with any area there are good and bad everywhere.
I am sure there are always homes coming up at the Central Coast as we always joke that the area is " Gods waiting room " lol
I lived in Terrigal/Wamberal, Tumbi Umbi, Matcham, North Avoca and Killarney Vale in my 12 years on the coast thru 89-2004 and was a landscape contractor in that time. I worked all over the coast from Budgewoi to Woy Woy and to say any of it is dodgy is to say you are a snob !
I found the best people to deal with were the "battlers" and the worst were the rich, or seemingly rich. Always had to chase the later for the $...
I have friends (of differing socioeconomic levels) who live all over the central Coast and while some areas are mainly working class (whats wrong with that?), they also have exclusive parts within their boundaries....explained by the geographical nature of the area as there are beautiful waterways and beaches everywhere and it's just an hour to the CBD of SYD....I might add that the better to do friends I have there feel comfortable mixing with anyone, anywhere....
To wash the Central Coast with the "dodgy" sponge is a bit much I feel.
It does cater heavily for retirees, why wouldn't it, beaches, waterways, ambient temperatures, ever improving facilities etc...but there is this huge shift of major businesses from Sydney to the Central Coast that I feel is behind the last few years growth, along with the lifestyle (Coast).
A little foresight and I can see the Central Coast being joined by Newcastle as the new Parramattas of Sydney....only difference they have is the lifestyle, geographically.
As an aside I did commute to Northshore at times during my stay there and still to this day don't know how folks can do this year in year out...but hey I'm different and from the bush originally and would rather drive an hour with no traffic to work... I take my hat off to the commuters.
I found the best people to deal with were the "battlers" and the worst were the rich, or seemingly rich. Always had to chase the later for the $...
I have friends (of differing socioeconomic levels) who live all over the central Coast and while some areas are mainly working class (whats wrong with that?), they also have exclusive parts within their boundaries....explained by the geographical nature of the area as there are beautiful waterways and beaches everywhere and it's just an hour to the CBD of SYD....I might add that the better to do friends I have there feel comfortable mixing with anyone, anywhere....
To wash the Central Coast with the "dodgy" sponge is a bit much I feel.
It does cater heavily for retirees, why wouldn't it, beaches, waterways, ambient temperatures, ever improving facilities etc...but there is this huge shift of major businesses from Sydney to the Central Coast that I feel is behind the last few years growth, along with the lifestyle (Coast).
A little foresight and I can see the Central Coast being joined by Newcastle as the new Parramattas of Sydney....only difference they have is the lifestyle, geographically.
As an aside I did commute to Northshore at times during my stay there and still to this day don't know how folks can do this year in year out...but hey I'm different and from the bush originally and would rather drive an hour with no traffic to work...
I take my hat off to the commuters.
