I was going to say the same thing but whenever someone tries to find the silver lining in a 30% drop within 1 week! I knew there was little point in continuing the argument particularly given the post was to do with people admitting their mistakes which wasnt going to happen.
What does "affordability" mean to you?
- Thread starter hobo-jo
- Start date
Well I don't know whether this post or the last one was directed at me, but personally I am more than prepared to own up to the many mistakes I've made while investing and have done so in relevant threads on other sites. Perhaps best the discussion is moved to another thread though. Could you start one in the Coffee Lounge if of genuine interest to you? ... would make for an interesting topic.
It’s not of interest to me to discuss commodities... you posted something to the effect that nobody posts about their mistakes pointing out big property losses in cairns etc so I related this back to something closer to home i.e. your views on silver.
I am not going to post in coffee lounge to dissect your views earlier this year that silver will continue to boom when it has already crashed 30% in a week. The facts truly and deafeningly speak for itself.
I just find it personally amusing that if prices in property rose just like silver did over the last 6 months, you in particular would be the first to scream unsustainable boom from the roof-tops but given commodities is your investment of choice then somehow things are difference and prices would continue to rise and its "different this time" and prices will continue to boom. (just have a look at your own silver graphs and tell me if that even looked sustainable to a layman?)
All I was trying to point out is the absurd contradiction in your views between asset classes and peoples inability to admit mistakes and learn from them (at least publicly on forum). The same things that affect property (speculation etc) affect commodity\shares etc as you have now learnt.
I am not going to post in coffee lounge to dissect your views earlier this year that silver will continue to boom when it has already crashed 30% in a week. The facts truly and deafeningly speak for itself.
I just find it personally amusing that if prices in property rose just like silver did over the last 6 months, you in particular would be the first to scream unsustainable boom from the roof-tops but given commodities is your investment of choice then somehow things are difference and prices would continue to rise and its "different this time" and prices will continue to boom. (just have a look at your own silver graphs and tell me if that even looked sustainable to a layman?)
All I was trying to point out is the absurd contradiction in your views between asset classes and peoples inability to admit mistakes and learn from them (at least publicly on forum). The same things that affect property (speculation etc) affect commodity\shares etc as you have now learnt.
Where did I say it will "continue to boom"? Silver has a long way to go in this bull market, but I am well aware that Silver's spikes are not always sustainable, this from my blog November last year:
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2010/11/is-silvers-parabolic-spike-over.html
You certainly like to try and put words in others mouths.
re-shove this comment in your mouth;
I expect the interest in Silver to remain strong over 2011, likely pushing the price to new 30 year records. I think there is a real opportunity in Silver stocks which are still reasonably priced given the rise we’ve seen in the Silver spot price.
your comments under the section "Summary and Conclusion", dated Sunday, January 16, 2011
I expect the interest in Silver to remain strong over 2011, likely pushing the price to new 30 year records. I think there is a real opportunity in Silver stocks which are still reasonably priced given the rise we’ve seen in the Silver spot price.
your comments under the section "Summary and Conclusion", dated Sunday, January 16, 2011
I don't see where the problem is??
Silver priced in USD pushed up to almost break the record high as per that prediction. I would say that was actually a pretty good call considering Silver was around $30 at the time.
AUD Silver around $29, currently $33
Re performance of ASX listed silver stocks. These are the approx prices as of mid January vs today:
ARD around 19c, currently 24c (+26%)
SVL around 25c, currently 31c (+24%)
AYN around 4.5c, currently 12.5c (+177%)
CCU around 65c, currently 96c (+47%)
Where's the issue?
I can't workout whether you are trying to prove my forecasts right or wrong here??
Your prediction was made in January 2011 and it was for 2011 i.e. the rest of the year. For you to say you were correct "at the time" is simply absurd.
Then you pull out stock prices???? What has that got to do with anything we are talking about? its like me pulling out some property related stocks which have gone up as proof the market is just peachy! (note* you raised issue with people using anecdotal evidence and now you do the EXACT same thing! sheeesh)
So basically you.. dont admit to mistakes, try to put a positive spin on anything you say and also use anecdotal evidence to do it....
your current stance is laughable.. and your hypocrisy is palpable.
Like a child if it makes you feel better ill say with a sympathetic smile.. you are right, your prediction was right, your prediction holds true, there was no crash.
Then you pull out stock prices???? What has that got to do with anything we are talking about? its like me pulling out some property related stocks which have gone up as proof the market is just peachy! (note* you raised issue with people using anecdotal evidence and now you do the EXACT same thing! sheeesh)
So basically you.. dont admit to mistakes, try to put a positive spin on anything you say and also use anecdotal evidence to do it....
your current stance is laughable.. and your hypocrisy is palpable.
Like a child if it makes you feel better ill say with a sympathetic smile.. you are right, your prediction was right, your prediction holds true, there was no crash.
I don't see where the problem is??
Silver priced in USD pushed up to almost break the record high as per that prediction. I would say that was actually a pretty good call considering Silver was around $30 at the time.
AUD Silver around $29, currently $33
Re performance of ASX listed silver stocks. These are the approx prices as of mid January vs today:
ARD around 19c, currently 24c (+26%)
SVL around 25c, currently 31c (+24%)
AYN around 4.5c, currently 12.5c (+177%)
CCU around 65c, currently 96c (+47%)
Where's the issue?
I can't workout whether you are trying to prove my forecasts right or wrong here??
What so I can't say it was right, but you can say it was wrong?
You are about the most irrational poster on this site Tim, I can't make heads nor tails of your points/views.
How are you claiming that I'd made a mistake or was wrong this early in the year if you are now claiming that the prediction was for the whole of 2011??
The price has remained strong (from the time of the prediction), we did push to new 30 year highs and almost an all time record. Where was I wrong? At the very least I am neither right nor wrong, which makes your jabs at me moot.
I bought the stocks up because YOU quoted me predicting where the stocks might go!!
You are truly unbelieveable
It's sad that trolls on this site can't keep a topic on track, another sensible discussion topic trashed because of those on here with property interests derailing anything that might show property in a negative light!
wow!
"I expect the interest in Silver to remain strong over 2011"
are you SERIOUS!!! there was a crash of 30%+ in just a week!?!?!?!?!!?!?!!?! in 2011?!!!?!?!?!?!? so nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo prices didnt remain strong over 2011!
the price of silver has nothing to do with resource companies stock price that went up that also trade in zinc and other metals... you pulled this little tid bit out from the skies to somehow drag the topic away from A CRASH IN THE PRICE OF SILVER...
get help...
PS: I am a troll? lol..... a crash in the price of silver is so obious to the inhabitants of planet earth that I didnt think it would require follow up posts.... if being a troll means disagreeing with you then I am happily one.
"I expect the interest in Silver to remain strong over 2011"
are you SERIOUS!!! there was a crash of 30%+ in just a week!?!?!?!?!!?!?!!?! in 2011?!!!?!?!?!?!? so nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo prices didnt remain strong over 2011!
the price of silver has nothing to do with resource companies stock price that went up that also trade in zinc and other metals... you pulled this little tid bit out from the skies to somehow drag the topic away from A CRASH IN THE PRICE OF SILVER...
get help...
PS: I am a troll? lol..... a crash in the price of silver is so obious to the inhabitants of planet earth that I didnt think it would require follow up posts.... if being a troll means disagreeing with you then I am happily one.
What so I can't say it was right, but you can say it was wrong?
You are about the most irrational poster on this site Tim, I can't make heads nor tails of your points/views.
How are you claiming that I'd made a mistake or was wrong this early in the year if you are now claiming that the prediction was for the whole of 2011??
The price has remained strong (from the time of the prediction), we did push to new 30 year highs and almost an all time record. Where was I wrong? At the very least I am neither right nor wrong, which makes your jabs at me moot.
I bought the stocks up because YOU quoted me predicting where the stocks might go!!
You are truly unbelieveable
It's sad that trolls on this site can't keep a topic on track, another sensible discussion topic trashed because of those on here with property interests derailing anything that might show property in a negative light!
You've gone off the edge.
Clearly when I said "strong" I was speaking relative to the time of my comment. If I'd said it when Silver was at $48 then you might have a point. That said I've always said Silver is volatile so you are just trying to nitpick one particular comment and turn it into an argument I've never made!
You're right Silver has seen a crash in price relative to the peak price it saw, but not for year to date. It's the nature of the beast though, I've suggested as much on my blog that strong retracements are likely as per the November post I linked above.
You are trying to take one comment on one day way out of the context of the posts I make on my blog.
You're pursuing an absolutely ridiculous and childish line of discussion here Tim.
It's just sad really.
Clearly when I said "strong" I was speaking relative to the time of my comment. If I'd said it when Silver was at $48 then you might have a point. That said I've always said Silver is volatile so you are just trying to nitpick one particular comment and turn it into an argument I've never made!
You're right Silver has seen a crash in price relative to the peak price it saw, but not for year to date. It's the nature of the beast though, I've suggested as much on my blog that strong retracements are likely as per the November post I linked above.
You are trying to take one comment on one day way out of the context of the posts I make on my blog.
You're pursuing an absolutely ridiculous and childish line of discussion here Tim.
It's just sad really.
OMG! That one is just plain laughable.
Just in case you missed it.
THIS IS A PROPERTY INVESTING SITE!
Everybody on this site should have interests in property. If you have no interest in property, then what the heck are you doing here. Who is the troll? Pot - kettle - black.
For the record, most posters are happy to discuss things that concern property, whether it be negative or not. But this continual put down on everything & anything to do with property gets a bit weary.
We get it! You don't like property and you want it to crash so you can buy something cheap. Blah, blah, blah, blah! You think gold & silver is the way to go, then you get all narky when it is shown that silver has taken a hiding. BTW property does not act like silver. Specific property might, if you buy at the top of the market & not do any DD, but not property as a whole. It might take a dive in Timbucktoo, but be doing quite nicely in Sydney, thankyou very much.
skater, I didn't bring up Silver in this thread. I often don't bring up the metals; it is usually pathetic permabulls that can’t discuss the topic at hand and I get roped in to defending my position or opinion. They use my interest in another investment class to attack me and try and put words in my mouth.
If you don’t like what I have to say then put me on ignore!
If you don’t like what I have to say then put me on ignore!
I agree it doesn't (silver = property) but on stock v flow property does behave a lot like gold without the liquidity.
You have a high stock level with a low new production / used up / output. Gold once it hits a trend stays in it for years as the demand for the existing stock drives the price moreso than production costs / production capacity which govern them over long periods of time but short term price can move away. This happened in the USA through 03 to 07 where capacity overshot demand for homes and left the USA in the other situation where price can move away from costs of production a glut of stock. This is why every month the glut of homes in the USA is closely watched as once they are used up prices will have to return to costs of production.
Silver is used up and requires new production to meet demand or price can spike. Trouble is it can also see capacity meet demand and an overcapacity can then see prices fall even when their is only a perception of an overcapacity. In this way it is more like iron ore, oil, zinc and other more volatile commodities. Gold is not like other commodities as its purpose is mostly for stored wealth, which has a similar effect to property where it has the purpose to be a roof over someones head but is durable and stays in the stock for 50 years or so.
Gold like property will have price detirmined for long periods of time purely based on demand with capacity unable to catch up or stock exceeding demand. I know I got attacked last time I said this so expect to get attacked again this time...
To be clear it behaves similarly due to the large stock versus the low flow. this is a large detirminant on the way prices behave in various commodities, assets and even some durable consumer goods like cars compared to things like iron ore, coal etc high output v stock.
I guess all I am trying to say is that the irony in property investors saying gold is **** and vice versa is they are both very similar in the way price behaves in both with trends being much longer lasting with capacity and production costs a more secondary issue in the short term hence they are both known as being pretty safe bets. When either thing does turn (gold or property) they can turn for years so it is best not to hold the baby with either for too long...
Look, you get in trends in both, I get that! Maybe not quite as volitile as you express, but admittedly trends do come into play. The point I'm making is that as this is a property investing forum, then it only makes sense that people are interested in property. We don't jump on the shares sites and cry 'the sky is falling' and so deserve the same respect in return.
And there we have one of the main reasons why housing is so 'unaffordable' these days. Never in any other generation have we had more educated and highly paid women in our society. Being female and educated myself, I am not for a moment saying that this is a bad thing, however, it does result in couples, families having a bigger buyer power and thus, pushes prices up.
i quoted you... so no i didnt put words in your mouth (quoted you twice because the thick need reminding)
i stated a fact.. 30% drop in silver...
I have NEVER said i beleive prices will boom in property or made any statement that comes close to justifying a "pathetic permabull" title so please take some of your own advice and dont put words in my mouth...
so I am now "pathetic" not just a "premabull"... keep the insults flying mate coming from you they are compliments.
i stated a fact.. 30% drop in silver...
I have NEVER said i beleive prices will boom in property or made any statement that comes close to justifying a "pathetic permabull" title so please take some of your own advice and dont put words in my mouth...
so I am now "pathetic" not just a "premabull"... keep the insults flying mate coming from you they are compliments.
What you did quote I got bang on.
"I expect the interest in Silver to remain strong over 2011, likely pushing the price to new 30 year records. I think there is a real opportunity in Silver stocks which are still reasonably priced given the rise we’ve seen in the Silver spot price."
Silver stocks have performed well.
Silver made a new 30 year high.
Silver has remained strong relative to the price when I made the call.
You tried to put words in my mouth at least 3 times before you put up an actual quote of mine.
And then when you did finally put up an actual quote (which I have no doubt you went hunting for rather than being aware of it prior to these earlier comments) you quoted something that was spot on. You then quibble over semantics such as whether the price can be deemed strong if it saw a 30% rise then fall over a short period of time...
Silver is a volatile metal. It's not for the faint of heart. Those looking for the less volatile metal should look to Gold. I suspect Silver may even dip back below $30 later this year, because what I didn't know in January is that the Fed is not continuing their QE program which could have a large bearing on the price, which I have outlined in other posts on my blog.
"I expect the interest in Silver to remain strong over 2011, likely pushing the price to new 30 year records. I think there is a real opportunity in Silver stocks which are still reasonably priced given the rise we’ve seen in the Silver spot price."
Silver stocks have performed well.
Silver made a new 30 year high.
Silver has remained strong relative to the price when I made the call.
You tried to put words in my mouth at least 3 times before you put up an actual quote of mine.
And then when you did finally put up an actual quote (which I have no doubt you went hunting for rather than being aware of it prior to these earlier comments) you quoted something that was spot on. You then quibble over semantics such as whether the price can be deemed strong if it saw a 30% rise then fall over a short period of time...
Silver is a volatile metal. It's not for the faint of heart. Those looking for the less volatile metal should look to Gold. I suspect Silver may even dip back below $30 later this year, because what I didn't know in January is that the Fed is not continuing their QE program which could have a large bearing on the price, which I have outlined in other posts on my blog.
gee - i've only read the last two pages, am not interested in silver, and even as a dumb-a** outsider to this thread i can see that hobo-jo was wildly wrong in their predictions ... yet is flailing about trying to put a positive spin.
admit it to yourself hobo - your prediction of silver staying strong (to quote) "over the rest of 2011" was wrong ... and move on instead of getting frustrated and childish.
we all get it wrong at times - be mature enough to let it go and get on with life.
p.s. one of my favourite quotes is "excuses are nothing more than lies to yourself" ... makes you pause and double think when making an excuse about something. am i just lying to myself to justify the wrong of my situation, or is it a genuine reason.
admit it to yourself hobo - your prediction of silver staying strong (to quote) "over the rest of 2011" was wrong ... and move on instead of getting frustrated and childish.
we all get it wrong at times - be mature enough to let it go and get on with life.
p.s. one of my favourite quotes is "excuses are nothing more than lies to yourself" ... makes you pause and double think when making an excuse about something. am i just lying to myself to justify the wrong of my situation, or is it a genuine reason.
This is that scenario that RK mentions about the two different types of farmers - one is the guy who breeds cows, sells off the calves and keeps the original herd of breeders (buy and hold investors).Hobo-jo actually had a house a year or two ago. Right when Adelaide was going beserk upwards. He sold, pocketed the difference and is renting now - a bear taking full advantage of a (now passed) bull market and putting his money where his mouth is waiting for prices to come down
The other farmer is the one who buys the cows, grows them and then sells them in the market (IP traders and flippers).
Hobo is the flipper by the sounds of it, which would have worked during the boom when he sold - as you pointed out.
But of course; the party is over now; he's shut out of the game, and is rueing the day, and is bleating to us how cr@p it all is.
He can't buy back into the market and sell his cows at the market and make any money right now I'd say.
Hey; does this mean I'm as big a bear/troll as he is by this post?
