When will the All Ords hit 5000?

[Intrinsic_Value]

And that's been helped by Mr Rudd capping super contributions.
Many used to load up on shares via super.....the cap has directed a lot of that into property.

maybe but i think its got a lot more to do with investing pyschology.

Individually man is very intelligent and sensible. Put them in a crowd, with a 'ticker' price whether thats shares/property/any investable asset, and they become a bunch of muppets.

 

[GlennG]

Interesting thread this one, and a very long one dating back to 2006, calling for predictions when the all ords will hit 5000.

Anyone what to have a crack at this one again. Currently sitting at 3619, the all ords at 5000 would be a 38% gain. My tip for what it's worth Oct-2010.

It's heading that way, you could be right!

 

[Corey Batt]

Possible slight retraction in October month, late November 5000 scraping would be preferable (For my portfolio!).

 

[WinstonWolfe]

The lost 5 years.

I agree with Pimco mgt that B&H is dead.
And I am entertaining that for Aussie property too.

I agree October is ripe for a pullback, maybe 5%.
But QE2 is the wild card. A big stimulus will potentially see a lot of mulah flow into stocks.....but the more that flows in, the more that flows out post stimulus.

My readings suggest Bernanke and Obama are priming for the motherload of stimuli. It will be catastrophic in the long term though.

Bernanke isn't happy with how low inflation is. It isn't inflating away US debt quick enough....therefore making the real rate of borrowing higher. And there's not going to be a recovery without a borrowing bonanza.

 

[redwing]

5001 before Christmas

 

[Aaron Sice]

serious resistance at 4700 - SERIOUS - been floating all week so far.

i call a pull back this month to 4400ish. when it breaks thru 4500 i will take a 5000 Feb call.

 

[Corey Batt]

Thats in line with my expectations. Holding excess funds for a late Oct-December buy.

If only the share price drops to expectations of course.

I'm guessing late Jan 11 for 5000, with a slight retract in Feb.

 

[Aaron Sice]

i want about a month on expiry before i sell - i'm imagining a Jan 5000 top out as well.

 

[willair]

My tip is is that at the end of Oct 2010 the ASX will be around 2200 and our property market will be off by 40-50%

Time goes fast these days..willair..

 

[Aaron Sice]

ah non-recourse - where art thou for ridicule?

this guy must have been a serious gin drinking depressive. i've never conversed with anyone that had so much pessimism about everything.

oh well. i trust his term deposits are going well.

 

[Ridin-High]

The lost 5 years.

I agree with Pimco mgt that B&H is dead.
And I am entertaining that for Aussie property too.

Everyone has an opinion about buy and hold. It might work if you let it do it's thing. Buy good quality companys hold for long term

Past 5 yrs for

Woolworths - 15.4% total return Per annum
BHP - 14.7%
Comm Bank - 12.4%
QBE - 3.6% (note its been hammered this yr down 22.5%)
Woodside - 7.3%

Recent article about B&H here

http://www.morningstar.com.au/article/learn/buy-and-hold-works-if-you-let-it/2578

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Buy good quality companys hold for long term

And how long do I hold WOW if I bought 3 years ago?

 

[Ridin-High]

And how long do I hold WOW if I bought 3 years ago?

over that time frame, total return has been +2.8% P.A which is crap

Mind you WOW has done much better then the ASX 200 over the same period of time which total return according to STW index tracker is -6.8%

But isn't buy and hold for the long term? I hardly consider 3yrs long term.

Over a 10yr period woolworths has total return near 20% P.A for share holders.

But yeah from reading most of your comments you have a very neg view on things, but thats always good for abit of balance.. keeping the head screwed on

Regards,

RH

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

And how long do I hold WOW if I bought 3 years ago?

i dont think its fair to just use a time frame that minimises the return.
We are talking about investment positions not speculative positions.

Intelligent investment perspectives should be viewed in a similar light to being an owner of a business.
If we imagined we own a business that has operated well, and should continue to operate well in the future and we had a 'less profitable quarter' and our friend was running another business in a different sector had a good quarter. Do we suddenly try to exit the business and attempt to replicate the friends business?????

Now people who bought shares in WOW might have over paid for the shares relative to the underlying business. But what about those who bought at lower prices, should they have exited?
the answer is not so clear cut when taxes are brought into account as well as the risk of redeployment of those funds into new investments.

The problem major problem that i see when people comment on 'shares' in a forum is the non-disclosure of whether the commentators are a speculator or an passive investor.

In my opinion its pretty dangerous for the passive investor to seek opinions from the speculator because both their execution and risk management strategies are very different.

A good speculator watches their positions very closely. A passive investor might not, therefore its very dangerous in my opinion for the passive investor to take on speculative positions recommended by the speculator.

 

[Ridin-High]

good post their by IV, also good morning

 

[Corey Batt]

Not exactly on topic but related to shares but has anyone used Suncorp's margin lending products?

I generally use CBA products but find the lending rate of 8.95% as less than adequate when compared with Suncorps 8.1% comparable product.

What I want to know is that does Suncorp have a tendency of getting the customers in with lower rates and then drop the ball later down the track?

The product is a 1 year fixed interest, paid in advance 25k margin lend.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

ah non-recourse - where art thou for ridicule?

oh well. i trust his term deposits are going well.

I had several private exchanges with NR, and real world confirmation of what he is up to. He has done exceedingly well Aaron in the provision of commercial real estate for the health sector.

i dont think its fair to just use a time frame that minimises the return.
We are talking about investment positions not speculative positions.

I mentioned 3 yr growth, to contrast against 5 yr.....to show how 2 years can make a significant difference.

Further, even with a growth history like WOW's, a wise investor will not automatically expect that to continue. Rather they will seek to understand the broader macro economy, the market WOW operate in, the forces that permitted growth in the past, and the potential for further growth. If I was considering investing in WOW, I'd want to understand the regulatory outlook for the supermarket duopoly, especially as it relates to creeping acquisitions.

 

[Corey Batt]

WW brings up a good point in regard to looking at WOW history of growth and not expecting it to continue due to past growth.

In my opinion, WOW grew so well under the stagnation of Coles group, which saw it transfer marketshare to its camp. Since the WES takeover of CG, can you instantly expect WOW to perform at previous levels? With marketshare growth of CG being greater than WOW for the first time in years?

 

[oracle]

WW brings up a good point in regard to looking at WOW history of growth and not expecting it to continue due to past growth.

In my opinion, WOW grew so well under the stagnation of Coles group, which saw it transfer marketshare to its camp. Since the WES takeover of CG, can you instantly expect WOW to perform at previous levels? With marketshare growth of CG being greater than WOW for the first time in years?

WOW has an excellent management team which has always tried to deliver maximum returns to it's shareholders. WES also has a good management. What you will see is just like WES entering into the supermarket business by buying coles WOW has responded by entering into hardware business ( Woolworths-Lowe's joint venture ) thereby challenging WES monopoly of hardware store through Bunnings. So WOW supermarket business might be impacted by Coles performing better under WES. You will also notice WES hardware business impacted by more competition from WOW.


(PS: More competition is good for the end customer. It will take some good management skills to continue to profit under more competition.)

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[Corey Batt]

It is debatable how well WOW's Lowe's chain is going to go.

Also not exactly the same, WOW's profits are largely driven by supermarket sales, with the food and liquor chains equating to roughly 78% of WOW's EBIT, whilst WES hardware, home improvements AND all Officeworks chains equate to 22% of WES EBIT. A realignment of Woolworths marketshare towards Coles is far more damaging than a realignment of Bunnings marketshare towards WOW.