Who will you vote for if a federal election was held tomorrow

[urban cowboy]

yes it will be interesting to see if we do get a change of govt based on the above...

as much as i will mostly likely support the coalition, i think there is a lot of people disatisfied with our john - i'm inclined to agree that it may be time for him to move over but i'm fairly sure that i don't want to see a change of government to achieve it. alternatives?? buggered if i know...

i do know though that i am far better off financially now than i have ever been thanks in part to a raft of tax breaks and family concessions over the past few years...if the ALP win, what will they do to those concessions/breaks etc... that is my big question.

to answer your question directly - there are probably sooo many issues going to be raised that finances just may take a back seat this time around...i hope not though...

 

[JFisher]

Exactly Bracks approach after he won power from Kennett who did the hard yards and got our triple A rating back, now Bracks he is swimming in money from pokies, fines, stamp duty and he cant even get the hospitals right. My partner was bumped from a quadriple bypass, after he had tubes inserted and first anaesetic because there were no beds in intensive care because two accidents came in.
Howards new labour laws have given employers confidence to hire more people without getting stuck with the ones who won't work. There has been 250,000 new jobs created since these laws came in and the lowest unemployment levels. Watch Labor get in bed with the builders unions (and all other unions) and create havoc in the building industry and elsewhere as per their usual shortsighted approach, then watch your stable economy dribble out the door over the next few years as they work their usual Labor magic. Happens every time.

DITTO

Julie Fisher

 

[cazandpaul]

Traditionally a Labour supporter but have been happy with Howard - the succession planning for the Libs worries me

 

[tubs]

Would be interested to hear people's thoughts.. If we assume the polls are reflective of people's voting intentions today, with the ALP well ahead, how do people reconcile this with a strong economy, record employment, 4 years of consecutive tax cuts?

Traditionally voters look at matters of economic management & their own personal finances first.

Is this going to be the first election where economic management will no longer be a front and centre issue?

Have people become accustomed to the good times and now expect this from all governments and look at other poilcy matters first eg climate change, education, health, international affairs....

I think (sadly) you're spot on the money. All I saw at the polling booths at the last election were lines of mortgage holders, scared stiff about higher interest rates and a slowing economy. But for some reason, they're no longer concerned. Probably because rates went up anyway.

But you're also right in that people have forgotten about the importance of the economy. They just assume it will continue. The cycle tends to be:
1. Liberal in power, economy comes good
2. Liberal in power, economy stays good. People take it for granted and vote them out.
3. Labor come in and spend lots of money that the Liberals saved, and the money that the strong economy is still generating
4. Effects of the previous strong economy eroded, and all the money is gone. Economy now stuffed.
5. Labor gets voted out
6. Cycle starts again...

 

[WinstonWolfe]

I think the turn towards Labor is partially explained by

- the growing number of mortgage holders who bought since the last boom, whose DSR is very high by historical standards, and don't feel particularly better off due to Coalition strong economic mx.

- the increasing number of Gen X and Y's who are renting, and for whatever reason, feel they will never be able to buy a home (in a lifestyle area), and many have a significant HECS debt.

- the growing number of people who feel they don't have job security, because so many companies put people on casually or for short term contracts.

- that the domestic economy, especially within the capital cities, is not as healthy as the Coalition makes out. Not everyone benefits from export sales of minerals.

- I also think there is a general level of dissatisfaction with infrastructure and public services planning and provision. Think education, health, roads, public transport, water, power, cost of new land). Even though much of it is a state or local govt responsibility, I don't think the average voter distinguishes well between which level of govt is to blame.

- Leading on from the previous point, I think a lot of the electorate doesn't feel it is appropriate to be cutting taxes, when so much infrastructure needs attention.

Based on the above, the Coalition's one theme for being re-elected, strong economic management, is meaningless to those who feel they are missing out. I would presume that number is growing significantly every year.

And if the Coalition don't understand that, then they unfortunately are becoming too elitist and disconnected from the common man.

Nevertheless, I don't think Labor have a smart way forwards.

Would be interested to hear people's thoughts.. If we assume the polls are reflective of people's voting intentions today, with the ALP well ahead, how do people reconcile this with a strong economy, record employment, 4 years of consecutive tax cuts?

Traditionally voters look at matters of economic management & their own personal finances first.

Is this going to be the first election where economic management will no longer be a front and centre issue?

Have people become accustomed to the good times and now expect this from all governments and look at other poilcy matters first eg climate change, education, health, international affairs....

 

[buzzlightyear]

I think the turn towards Labor is partially explained by

- the growing number of mortgage holders who bought since the last boom, whose DSR is very high by historical standards, and don't feel particularly better off due to Coalition strong economic mx.

- the increasing number of Gen X and Y's who are renting, and for whatever reason, feel they will never be able to buy a home (in a lifestyle area), and many have a significant HECS debt.

- the growing number of people who feel they don't have job security, because so many companies put people on casually or for short term contracts.

- that the domestic economy, especially within the capital cities, is not as healthy as the Coalition makes out. Not everyone benefits from export sales of minerals.

- I also think there is a general level of dissatisfaction with infrastructure and public services planning and provision. Think education, health, roads, public transport, water, power, cost of new land). Even though much of it is a state or local govt responsibility, I don't think the average voter distinguishes well between which level of govt is to blame.

- Leading on from the previous point, I think a lot of the electorate doesn't feel it is appropriate to be cutting taxes, when so much infrastructure needs attention.

Based on the above, the Coalition's one theme for being re-elected, strong economic management, is meaningless to those who feel they are missing out. I would presume that number is growing significantly every year.

And if the Coalition don't understand that, then they unfortunately are becoming too elitist and disconnected from the common man.

Nevertheless, I don't think Labor have a smart way forwards.

I believe the role of the mining sector and its contribution to the growth in the current economy is overplayed especially by the Federal Opposition. Other industries have contributed more to employment than have the mining industry. So I don't think the gains or benefits today are isloated to a few. Unemployment is at record lows, participation rates at record highs, real wages continue to increase, consumer confidence at record levels...

However, my gut feeling and general discussion with friends, family and work collegaues is as Winston says is the issue of infrastructure investment, funding of essential services and climate change has impacted more on people's current thinking.

As the election draws closer, history suggests people start to think of issues closer to home ie economy but maybe I am underselling Rudd & co's strategy...(although Julia G as deputy PM cannot be a positive step, surely... )

As a side comment, women have been done a disservice by both political parties with the lack of quality female personnel in high profile roles. Bronwyn Bishop, Carmen Lawrence, Ros Kelly, Amanda Vanstone, Cheryl Kernot and of course Julia G., come to mind straight away...(of course there are a few males that haven't made the grade either to be fair)

Was watching Sky news today and they were saying that Liberal Party polling was saying that people still expected Libs/Nat to win even though the current polls say they are heading for electoral devastation....I do recall at the last election there were a number of polls (Morgan was one) that was predicting a strong Labor victory.

Interestingly I remember a number of political commentators saying in the 1993 post-election analysis (one for the true believers!!) that people were looking for an alternative but the opposition at the time, could not transform that into a broader sentiment for change. Sure there is a definite search for a change in certain areas but not a broader sentiment for change IMHO.

 

[natmarie73]

As a blue collar worker i dont beleive all this Union, media BS about AWAs im on one earning 16k more than a union EBA, if Rudd gets in i loose 16k straight away,

Hmmm, I don't know where you are getting that idea from Goldminer. Your AWA is a legal contract, and no matter if Labour (or anyone else) gets in tomorrow, the terms and conditions in your AWA will remain in force until the date it ceases in 3 or 5 years. The only way you can get out of it now is to either resign or be sacked. And now that Howard Pty Ltd has done his Nadia Comeneche impression and re-instated Labour's No Disadvantage Test the terms and conditions in your next AWA or employment instrument are not able to be reduced while you are performing the same job, so that statement about losing 16k the minute Labour gets in is rubbish.

The fact is, we won't know the effects of Workchoices until late 2008 at the earliest when the union negotiated EBAs run out, but research is showing that in a number of industries, people's wages and conditions have deteriorated since they were forced to sign AWAs or resign. I agree, they are great if you have marketable skills you can negotiate with, and are working in an industry with heavy labour shortages, but if you don't then your choice is to take what your boss offers or find another job that has better pay and conditions - not so easy if you are a woman with children to support, unskilled or straight out of school.

 

[tubs]

Polling

OK folks, here's the way I read 2 party preferred polls.

I think Labor need above 53% to have a winning lead, which they obviously do now. I remember hearing that Beazley lost the election before last despite many more votes than the Liberals (because of the way our system works with majority of seats won). I think he got around 51%/49% on a 2 party preferred basis.

With a 2 party preferred poll, it takes out the effect of the Greens, who will probably get 2%. All these Green voters would be Labor voters if there were no Greens, so effectively they're taking votes away from Labor. So, once you put all the parties in there, Labor lose 2% to the Greens. So even with 53% (2 party preferred), they lose 2% to the Greens, and then the Liberals will still beat their 51% because of the way our system works.

Therefore, Labor can only win if their 2 party preferred lead is 54% or greater.

Its closer than you think...

 

[Ausprop]

scary stuff indeed. may be time to shelve investment plans under this looming political/economic strife. I have decided to not proceed with a large investment that i was lookign at on the basis that a labor win = stalling economy = less demand for what I was looking to invest in. Last thing I want is to be left holding a hot potato.

 

[Norwester]

I'll be voting for Rudd & Co..............

Howard is a Menzies wannabe, Bush bootlicking liar.....simple as that.

Costello hasn't got even a fifth of his brothers ethics and can't seem to get that smirk of his face (I really thought his minders would have at least educated him in regard to that)..........What are you always smirking about Peter?

Iran & Afghanistan...........oops have we made a mistake there? Just wait till the boys and girls start coming home in boxes (if we could even get that right....... ) and see how quick the tide turns then. Then again the percentanges may just be with us as we really haven't many over there................because we really haven't got much of a defence force anyway. Anyone want to buy some cheap planes?? Oopps we already have.

Detention Centres..........."hi welcome to Australia"

Children Overboard..........more lies

Climate Change..........Regardless of whether it's a reality or not we are going to completely ignore this until it matters in us getting re elected. Who was that National party twit I watched on telly last week...........can't think of his name right now.........the coal will be clean and green man???

David Hicks.............What was it our esteemed Attorney General came out with last week???...something about how they could have done better.........bit flippin late now. The Poms at least appeared to be looking after their lot in Cuba.

What else???

Workchoices, how could I forget that little gem. Oops that's right, not supposed to mention it by name now....seems to be very unpopular with ordinary punter.................maybe because 47% of them have been made worse off. But that's OK we'll keep it a secret for as long as possible, then do a complete backflip and spend $7 million dollars of those same mugs taxpayer dollars in a political advertisement in telling them how well we are looking after them...yay the spindoctor wins again.

Vanstone.................Bye Bye Amanda hope you enjoy your job in Italy??? Was the least we could do for you for presiding over a DFAT gone mental.

Abbott.......what more can I say?? Perhaps.........whose on first base? Definetly not Costello

ciao

Nor

 

[tubs]

I'll be voting for Rudd & Co..............

Howard is a Menzies wannabe, Bush bootlicking liar.....simple as that.

Costello hasn't got even a fifth of his brothers ethics and can't seem to get that smirk of his face (I really thought his minders would have at least educated him in regard to that)..........What are you always smirking about Peter?

Iran & Afghanistan...........oops have we made a mistake there? Just wait till the boys and girls start coming home in boxes (if we could even get that right....... ) and see how quick the tide turns then. Then again the percentanges may just be with us as we really haven't many over there................because we really haven't got much of a defence force anyway. Anyone want to buy some cheap planes?? Oopps we already have.

Detention Centres..........."hi welcome to Australia"

Children Overboard..........more lies

Climate Change..........Regardless of whether it's a reality or not we are going to completely ignore this until it matters in us getting re elected. Who was that National party twit I watched on telly last week...........can't think of his name right now.........the coal will be clean and green man???

David Hicks.............What was it our esteemed Attorney General came out with last week???...something about how they could have done better.........bit flippin late now. The Poms at least appeared to be looking after their lot in Cuba.

What else???

Workchoices, how could I forget that little gem. Oops that's right, not supposed to mention it by name now....seems to be very unpopular with ordinary punter.................maybe because 47% of them have been made worse off. But that's OK we'll keep it a secret for as long as possible, then do a complete backflip and spend $7 million dollars of those same mugs taxpayer dollars in a political advertisement in telling them how well we are looking after them...yay the spindoctor wins again.

Vanstone.................Bye Bye Amanda hope you enjoy your job in Italy??? Was the least we could do for you for presiding over a DFAT gone mental.

Abbott.......what more can I say?? Perhaps.........whose on first base? Definetly not Costello

ciao

Nor

Told you they'd forget about the strong economy, low unemployment etc at this election...

 

[tubs]

scary stuff indeed. may be time to shelve investment plans under this looming political/economic strife. I have decided to not proceed with a large investment that i was lookign at on the basis that a labor win = stalling economy = less demand for what I was looking to invest in. Last thing I want is to be left holding a hot potato.

I dont think things will be as good under Labor. But I dont think things will collapse completely and it will be the end of the world. A good plan should work under any government. As long as you work hard, plan right and know your demand well enough. Those who are making money dont tend to worry about the government in power. They just keep making money...

 

[HeXa]

Told you they'd forget about the strong economy, low unemployment etc at this election...

they are too busy trying to sink Japanese whaling vessels

 

[Norwester]

*They*..........???? Looks around

*crickets*

What low unemployment and what strong economy?

Don't know where you guys get your info from but my grass roots baromoters are telling me something quite different.

ciao

Nor

 

[FrankGrimes]

I'll be voting for Rudd & Co..............

Howard is a Menzies wannabe, Bush bootlicking liar.....simple as that.

Snip...

Nor

I think Norwester has pretty much summed up why alot of people will vote labor in the next election. I think people take for granted the great situation the majority of us are in currently, booming job market, booming economy, tax cuts, budget surpluses.... What else could you want?

Then Labor comes in....Unemployment rises, inflation rises, people lose their jobs, houses, shares slump.... People will start thinking -

Who cares about David Hicks when I lose my job...
Who cares about the children overboard when inflation is running at 6%....

This stuff is all fluff at the end of the day - nothing else is more important than a sound economy, everything else has a flow on effect from this.. People take this for granted. Libs needs to work on their environment policies though (within reason)

Needless to say I would vote Liberal - Why risk Labor? Especially on an investment forum I'm suprised

 

[FrankGrimes]

scary stuff indeed. may be time to shelve investment plans under this looming political/economic strife. I have decided to not proceed with a large investment that i was lookign at on the basis that a labor win = stalling economy = less demand for what I was looking to invest in. Last thing I want is to be left holding a hot potato.

Yes I'm quite concerned as well! Glad I'm not the only one.

 

[Ausprop]

I dont think things will be as good under Labor. But I dont think things will collapse completely and it will be the end of the world. A good plan should work under any government. As long as you work hard, plan right and know your demand well enough. Those who are making money dont tend to worry about the government in power. They just keep making money...

I have bolded the key point here.... it is the anticipated lack of demand in a flailing economy that is precisely why I won't proceed. aussies generally are prospering and it's not because we are all business gurus - we are just fortunate beneficiaries of a strong economy. I don't see hard work as being much to do with it e.g I worked my guts off in the late 80s and early 90s and was rewarded with unemployment and tough times.

 

[Norwester]

Interesting discussion paper.............particularly as it was written in July last year.

http://www.cbs.curtin.edu.au/files/junankar.pdf

Can't believe that you guys are actually quaking in your boots about this. Or that I have to vote liberal to be an investor.......

Ahh well time will tell at the end of the year.

ciao

Nor

 

[natmarie73]

I have to agree with you Nor. Surely an astute investor can be successful no matter what form of government is in power.

I will also be voting for Rudd, I think he has so much more to offer than Howard Pty Ltd. At least he realises the resources boom won't last forever unlike the current government who are pretty much just riding the wake of China's economy.

Anyway, heard tonight on the news old Howie might be getting the sack himself lol! Wouldn't that be the ultimate in irony!

"nothing else is more important than a sound economy,"

Sorry Frank, I don't agree. IMO, nothing is more important than a planet that sustains life. I'll bet no one cares two hoots about the economy when there are no fish in the sea, fresh air to breathe or unpolluted water to drink. It is impossible to have a good economy if you don't have a healthy environment - just look at what hurricane Katrina did to the US economy - imagine if storms of this magnitude were regular and frequent occurrences which is a distinct possibility if climate change continues at the present rate.

 

[Xenia]

I just recieved something in the post today from a representative of the labour government, it stated something like "Howard has taken the RIGHTS away from WORKING Australians.... Labour will give them all back".....

That's all we need, more people with entitement mentalities in Australia, more people who think that the government or their employers OWE them a living, more people who can't take responsibilities.

I will definately NOT be voting for labour!