Shadow......seriously....you're coming across like a nutter.
Haha! I am used to this from <the other forum>, but not here!
Why it really is 'different here'
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
Haha! I am used to this from <the other forum>, but not here!
He *is* a nutter, you surprised both forums say it?
Token I completely agree with you. What shadow should have done is simply said something as random as what you just did and that would have carried so much more weight.
Shadow in future please reply with random anecdotes, illogical statements and perhaps throw in some famous quotes that sound great but mean nothing...
ill start you off...
An economist is someone who knows more about money than the people who have it.
Shadow in future please reply with random anecdotes, illogical statements and perhaps throw in some famous quotes that sound great but mean nothing...
ill start you off...
An economist is someone who knows more about money than the people who have it.
I'm sure there was the guy on Tuesday October 29th, 1929 who was running around saying what extraordinary opportunites the unfolding crash would present for property investors.
Now, I still think we're looking a global recession rather than a complete implosion but Shadow......seriously....you're coming across like a nutter.
Hi Boz,
I was actually referring to the fundamentals of the property market, in Australia, but to address each of your points...
-stock market down 40% - good, drive investors away from the risky and volatile stock market into the stability and security of property.
-resources down 40% - great, reduce inflation and allow the RBA to drop interest rates even further.
-AU$ down 30% in 3 months - excellent, aussie property has already crashed 30%, this should attract foreign investors.
-RBA cut rates 1% in one event - and this is a bad thing for property how?
-house prices falling in UK and US on top of the stock market - sorry, I forgot, we're just like the US, and UK, and Japan too! We must follow the exact course set by foreign countries! (note - we must only follow foreign countries where property has fallen - we can not possibly follow a country where property continues to rise.
-unemployment rising fast in most countries (except australia) - indeed.
- NZ in recession - IMF and government say Australia will not go into recession.
Cheers,
Shadow.
Ok, I just thought you were talking about the economy fundamentals.
In any case positive or not these effect the property market as well.
I think that after we all get out of this financial mess, that can be few months or few years, most assets in most countries would have a balance value. I believe it is very rare to see major global recession (pretty much sure it is coming) that would leave bubble behind, You can check in the past what recession left asset overvalued, where houses (or shares or commodities) up after the early 90's recession? where houses (or shares or commodities) high after the early 80's recession? the only asset that I can think of that could stay overvalued is Gold.
What I just said of houses getting back to the long term value doesn't mean that property investor that took high debt are going to loose most. It should be that way as they are the greedy one that took risk
. But the equilibrium between debt and credit can be obtained with a loss from the creditor and the debitors will end up with small debt and keep all their houses. This can happen specially now that in Australia seems the government is committing to keep house prices up or with just small drop in value. When Swan said prices in Australia will not drop much in value doesn't mean that he doesn't think they are not way overvalued, I don't think Swan is that stupid. What I read from his words is simply that the plan should be to keep houses asset near present 3.4 tril$, debt (and credit) around 2 tril$, the plan is just to boost the GDP from 1 tril to 2 tril as soon as possible, that would mean that if the average income is 50k, it will get 100k, that is great for property investor with high debt as they'll get more from renter and pay less on interest and the debt on income is much more affordable. On the other hand if you had 2 year of wage saving they will become 1 year worth of saving, even your super will suffer.What is the sign of this scenario? for sure a low AU$ and also the quantity of money is in the system (that can be monitored on the RBA website). If you are a big saver with a lot of money in the bank you have to be very carefull, if things get in the way of higher inflation about to come without interest matching it you have to stop be a saver or get the money in another currency or buy something (like a house or gold). Watch inflation number, if they get close to your interest in the bank get out from be a saver.
My personal forecast is for inflation of 8% within 6 months,
but it is up to the RBA, GOV and exchange rate.
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I'm sure it was here, just a week ago, someone posted a chart of the period with all the comments of the "lords of Wall St".
I've read them on a number of occasions so now give zero credibility to any "industry insiders". The same scepticism inures me to the ravings of property perma-bulls too.
Pardon, English is not my first language, I edited the word,
By the way, fundamental is pretty much explaining what is happening in the economy from the data coming up from reliable sources (like RBA, ABS, etc.)
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I thought he did.
Gee I got it worng again!!!
I think this time was foundation that got me wrong the spelling of fundamental wasn't really my fault
