that allows about 20 years to pay off debts? and if I can't do that then the only home I am going to will be the old persons home
Will Property ever Boom again
- Thread starter pickle pickle
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that allows about 20 years to pay off debts? and if I can't do that then the only home I am going to will be the old persons home
I've learnt and still practicing so many hard lessons in trading along the sitting tight line.
So many times I could've, should've .
One year I turned around and realized that if I'd just waited for the 3 dips p/yr that this one particular blue chip reliably does , year in year out , instead of doing 2 or 300 trades in a year I could've just done 3 using this stocks 3 dips p/yr for the same result.
And what a difference in brokerage , $1000's , not to mention stress.
It's the waiting for it and doing nothing meantime though that kills me.
Cheers
I don't think we could ever say it'll never boom again, it will again and again. You would imagine though that this time round it might just be awhile between drinks 
.
But how's this , some Melbourne Western suburbs have still risen 30% in this last 12 mths they reckon . Williamstown, Newport areas , Yarraville not quite but nearly and some others .
Bloody amazing .
Cheers
.But how's this , some Melbourne Western suburbs have still risen 30% in this last 12 mths they reckon . Williamstown, Newport areas , Yarraville not quite but nearly and some others .
Bloody amazing .
Cheers
They're not boasting that they've made a profit yet. More about the potential to do so.
As for the article, the only way that Sydney prices will continue to outpace other capitals is if wages are higher there. I'm not convinced that there's a huge difference, except perhaps at the top end.
The anecdotal evidence that I've heard is that workers in my industry (IT) earn slightly less (10%, if that) in Brisbane than Sydney, but living costs are significantly lower. So it could be that property prices have more-or-less been tapped out in Sydney relative to other markets.
Jeremy Grantham defined bubbles as once in thirty or forty year market movements. (I can't remember the exact definition, but I think it's pretty loose.)
If the Australian property market is in a bubble, and I'm aware that's a contentious claim, that would suggest it'll be a generation before we see the likes of the current boom. So I don't think that it's an end to rapid growth. It could be the peak for many years, but we won't know for a while yet.
To me, the article just goes to shhow how quickly some forget about whats been happening recently.
It seems like only yesterday we were seeing headlines such as 'property prices soar higher than expected' 'is it sustaiable?' 'happy homeowners as prices boom!' etc etc. And it will only be a seemingly short period before we see another turnaround.
Those who know the game always end up winners. Time and time again.
A good investor can see through the sheepish headlines and invest against the heard.
It seems like only yesterday we were seeing headlines such as 'property prices soar higher than expected' 'is it sustaiable?' 'happy homeowners as prices boom!' etc etc. And it will only be a seemingly short period before we see another turnaround.
Those who know the game always end up winners. Time and time again.
A good investor can see through the sheepish headlines and invest against the heard.
silver has put on nearly 80% in a few months....
IMHO, Silver has a long way to go still....... considering acquiring a small holding at the moment actually.
It comes with experience. Most the gains in investing come in short time periods. Whether youre in the market for a long time or only for those short periods.
Thats why im anti neg gearing. As it dilutes your overall results when times do turn good as you have to factor in the neg gearing losses.
You rarely hear that side of the story. Mostly you hear "my property went up 22% in one year" Yes, but what about all the expenses, neg gearing included, inflation included....etc...more like went up 10%.
Thats why im anti neg gearing. As it dilutes your overall results when times do turn good as you have to factor in the neg gearing losses.
You rarely hear that side of the story. Mostly you hear "my property went up 22% in one year" Yes, but what about all the expenses, neg gearing included, inflation included....etc...more like went up 10%.
Or that they've held it for 5 years and it didn't go anywhere in those 5 years (minus outgoing costs).
Like everything, people only tell you the good bits.
My dad "wins" money each week on horse races and the pokies.
Undoubtedly, things likes rates, insurance, strata levies fly under the radar here in terms of discussion about % increases, however if you look at the actual cash flow loss used for negative gearing, the reality is 'normal' negative gearing losses as a % of purchase price, is quite small. Unless you are buying a large block for possible redevelopment, where the cash loss is much more.
The properties that I take a cursory look at when doing this exercise are in the realms of 1%-2.5% depending on your marginal rate of tax and doesn't include depreciation. So yes, long periods of stagnation can mean you are going backwards, notwithstanding opportunity cost and assuming rents are increasing at the same rate as your expenses.
I accept it is easier to say, my property went up 22% in 18 months, and ignore the, let's say 4% cash loss incurred at the same time.
How can the out of pocket loss be 10% of the value of the property? That's.....impossible
Even if the asset was land with no rent coming in and no taxable income to offset some of the interest its still pretty hard to achieve
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The overall market has slowed, and I suspect will stay that way for some years. Pockets will do well.
My plan now is simply to sit tight, now that I'm cashflow positive, and focus on other things for a while. If and when the next boom starts (perhaps 5-8 years out?) I'll be ready to jump in and grab some good buys.
As others have pointed out, you don't always need to be buying.
My plan now is simply to sit tight, now that I'm cashflow positive, and focus on other things for a while. If and when the next boom starts (perhaps 5-8 years out?) I'll be ready to jump in and grab some good buys.
As others have pointed out, you don't always need to be buying.
I agree.Nothing new here just another part of the cycle in play.
I will still buy for value adding and possible future growth properties. far from my borrowing limit so life continues i say.
A decade of flat growth is not a bad thing when you have not hit your borrowing limit and want to value add/subdivide.
Dont think so
Hiya
I think a lot can be learnt by searching for posts that go back quite some time.......you'll be surprised !
Because people dont take into account ALL expenses plus inflation.
If inflation is 4%, neg gearing 2%, insurance, maintenance, management, interest, strata levies*, rates, water, yada yada in the other 4%. Easy Peasy.
And depreciation is not really a gain as its added from the cost base at sale time.
Most people here dont understand inflationary risk. And thats understandable as most resi property investors are mom and pop investors.
http://www.investorwords.com/2457/inflation_risk.html
You can add assets to that definition
If inflation is 4%, neg gearing 2%, insurance, maintenance, management, interest, strata levies*, rates, water, yada yada in the other 4%. Easy Peasy.
And depreciation is not really a gain as its added from the cost base at sale time.
Most people here dont understand inflationary risk. And thats understandable as most resi property investors are mom and pop investors.
http://www.investorwords.com/2457/inflation_risk.html
You can add assets to that definition
Evand have a rethink of what you're saying.
Most investors would have borrowed the entire amount so they'll be using other peoples money or would have contributed 15 or 20% at the most so inflation is not a cost to us.
In fact, inflation is our friend as it errodes the value of our mortgage and is a contributing factor to our property's capital gain and rental increases.
Ofcourse market economics play a role to the increases
but without inflation we wouldn't be going anywhere fast
We are talking about how people say my property has gained in value say 20%.
(Now, thats just on paper as they wont know the value till they sell it)
But they never say it has gained in value 20% minus 10% expenses. Its like on-paper house values are real but expenses arent.
In fact, its the opposite, the costs are real, the house value isnt.
Inflation makes everything lose value every month, every year.
(Now, thats just on paper as they wont know the value till they sell it)
But they never say it has gained in value 20% minus 10% expenses. Its like on-paper house values are real but expenses arent.
In fact, its the opposite, the costs are real, the house value isnt.
Inflation makes everything lose value every month, every year.
evand this means you only buy while markets are going up in the beleif they keep going up and sell when prices are going down as you beleive they will keep going down.
And if we were day trading property like day trading stock then this is a great system to follow "the trend is your friend" but property is illiquid and high cost of entry so you cannot day trade/flip. Property is a longer term investment and the chances are if you buy high you wont sell for much higher because this constitutes an all out boom. The more likely scenario is you will need to wait years before you see substantial growth to compensate for holding costs and make the whole exercise worth while.
It is far more logical to me buying property when its down rather than up. The contrarian principal lies in the sound logic that if following the masses was correct we would all be rich but we are not.
An experienced, succesful investor will tell you that you make money and you invest in any market. NONE just sit on their hands when the market is a little choppy, or unclear these are the times "successful investor"s as you put it shine or else they are not better than sheep following the herd.
And if we were day trading property like day trading stock then this is a great system to follow "the trend is your friend" but property is illiquid and high cost of entry so you cannot day trade/flip. Property is a longer term investment and the chances are if you buy high you wont sell for much higher because this constitutes an all out boom. The more likely scenario is you will need to wait years before you see substantial growth to compensate for holding costs and make the whole exercise worth while.
It is far more logical to me buying property when its down rather than up. The contrarian principal lies in the sound logic that if following the masses was correct we would all be rich but we are not.
An experienced, succesful investor will tell you that you make money and you invest in any market. NONE just sit on their hands when the market is a little choppy, or unclear these are the times "successful investor"s as you put it shine or else they are not better than sheep following the herd.
