With the ink now mostly dry on Kev's current commission as PM, the odds (as I type this, STC) are:
Coalition -> $1.25
ALP -> $3.85
ALP Doomed but how many seats will they get?
- Thread starter Peter 14.7
- Start date
With the ink now mostly dry on Kev's current commission as PM, the odds (as I type this, STC) are:
Coalition -> $1.25
ALP -> $3.85
Makes the $8 look good hey, Peter
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/morgan-poll-july1-2013-201307010635
This week’s Morgan Poll, the second since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another swing to the ALP. The ALP 51.5% (up 2% since last Wednesday’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll) is now ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The L-NP primary vote is 40.5% (down 2.5%) slightly ahead of the ALP 39.5% (up 1.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 11.5% (up 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.
If a Federal Election were held today the result would be a close ALP win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved strongly after Rudd’s return – up 12.5pts to 106 – the highest since mid March 2013. Now 43.5% (up 5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 37.5% (down 7.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
This week’s Morgan Poll, the second since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows another swing to the ALP. The ALP 51.5% (up 2% since last Wednesday’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll) is now ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.
The L-NP primary vote is 40.5% (down 2.5%) slightly ahead of the ALP 39.5% (up 1.5%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 8.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 11.5% (up 1%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1.5% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1.5%.
If a Federal Election were held today the result would be a close ALP win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,438 Australian electors aged 18+.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved strongly after Rudd’s return – up 12.5pts to 106 – the highest since mid March 2013. Now 43.5% (up 5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 37.5% (down 7.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Amazing 
Change the leader.
Does that mean:
Rudd is that liked?
or
Gillard is that loathed?
or
Abbot is that unelectable
Not a change in policy announced as far as I know, yet all is different.
Peter
Change the leader.
Does that mean:
Rudd is that liked?
or
Gillard is that loathed?
or
Abbot is that unelectable
Not a change in policy announced as far as I know, yet all is different.
Peter
Amazing
Change the leader.
Does that mean:
Rudd is that liked?
or
Gillard is that loathed?
or
Abbot is that unelectable
Not a change in policy announced as far as I know, yet all is different.
Peter
All of the above and the coalition behavior in opposition for the last few years may have backfired.
Hohoho
You a betting man? Put your money where your mouth is and bet on an ALP victory. Odds are pretty good for a two horse race.
No I'm not a betting man. I got the last election result wrong. I thought that Abbott would have won easily. I was very surprised when he lost.
He didnt lose, it was 50/50 with Indys deciding who got the gig.
They are all but gone and the nations patience with Labor is broken.
Lets get some decent management in and fix the bloody mess.
Abbott & Co are up to it, been there done that, tough love but it works.
Then Labor can come back and spend it all again.
The only poll will be Sept 14 (is that right Kev?)
Also, he may have "lost" because Julia promised no carbon tax but we know what happened then.
They are all but gone and the nations patience with Labor is broken.
Lets get some decent management in and fix the bloody mess.
Abbott & Co are up to it, been there done that, tough love but it works.
Then Labor can come back and spend it all again.
The only poll will be Sept 14 (is that right Kev?)
Also, he may have "lost" because Julia promised no carbon tax but we know what happened then.
Why did you think that? Him winning easily was never on the cards. ALP Were strong favourites at $1.51 and coalition at $2.54 the day prior to the election.
The ALP had out polled the coalition in every single opinion poll from the 2007 election right up to the 2010 election.
The surprising thing was not that he "lost", but that he did so extraordinarily well.
If not for the outrageous actions of the two NSW independents who represented the 2 electorates with the biggest swings away from the ALP and Greens, you would have been on the right side of predicting a massive upset.
How sad that those 2 lack the guts to face up to their actions.
The Aug 2010 federal election was never expected to be a close contest.
Labor went into it with a thumping majority. They held 88 of the 150 lower house seats. They only need 76 to form Govt, so they had 12 up their sleeve, thanks to the result from 2007.
Abbott was given the target of stripping away 6 seats in 2010, with probably a stretch goal of 8 seats, such that the coalition would be competitive the next time around.
The ALP under Gillard went in with 88 seats and came out the other side with only 72 seats. Abbott managed to strip 16 seats off Labor, double the amount of his stretch goal.
No-one in their wildest dreams could have predicted, or did predict that Labor would lose so many seats such that they could not form Govt by themselves.
Anyone talking crazy talk like 'Abbott was expected to win' is pure fantasy.
I had to giggle at this. There are 150 electorates nation wide. Each of those 150 electorates varies between about 90,000 and 110,000 electors.
If they polled 3,438 voters, that means they talked to on average, about 23 people from each electorate. 23. Only 23. A tiny 23. From that 23, they are trying to guess what the 100,000 are going to do. Good luck with the margin of error on that puppy.
Get real. The poll is a joke.
Let's all wait for the election to find out what the real story is......and waiting....and waiting.
Because Labor removed a Queensland Prime Minister I thought they would lose all those Queensland seats they gained to previously swing the 2007 election their way.
I put the eventual result being so close down to the different NBN policies at the time.
Now they've removed a Southern Prime Minister maybe there will be a backlash from Vic and SA.
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They probably only polled voters in the seats of Griffith and Brisbane
Hindsight is handy.
And pretty much how Labor is operating nowadays.
All out attack on Abbott now but still no date.
Gutless.
So, rather than debate the logic you choose to call me a liar.
Anyway I expect the Coalition to win the coming election because Labor needs to pick up seats, especially with the two resigning Independents returning to the Coalition column.
Also I expect some weakening in the Labor vote in Vic and SA with a pickup in Queensland. Not sure about NSW swinging seats. Might depend on how well Rudd campaigns on the Asylum seeker issue.
coalition price will go up i dont think labour is at a doomed state at all lets wait see what policies kev's draft up... i am sure majority of people voted against abott when kevin was in last time and they will do the same again since there will be no back stabbing by rangers deputies with new reshuffle. but you never know wayne butterfingers might have a stab at it
i dont think labour is at a doomed state at all lets wait see what policies kev's draft up... i am sure majority of people voted against abott when kevin was in last time and they will do the same again since there will be no back stabbing by rangers deputies with new reshuffle. but you never know wayne butterfingers might have a stab at it 
coalition price will go up
I am sure you're wrong.
The 2007 election was Kevin '07 v Howard.
Howard was voted out and Rudd was knifed and then it was Juliar v Abbott in 2010, almost losing the unloseable election. Looks like plenty were voting against Juliar (and by extension, Rudd).
I'm pretty sure Rudd and Abbott have never run in the same seat.
coalition price will go up
I must say you are pretty delusional to think that Abbott doesn't have Rudd's measure. Rudd is a policy vacuum. However, anything can happen in politics and Rudd is a very effective campaigner.
I think I'm one of the few people on here that can actually say they voted against Abbott. Hate the way it is now a popularity contest of leaders when only those who live in the electorate actually vote for them.
I don't trust my local Liberal candidate. Anyone who photoshops 20kg off themselves for campaign photos can't be trusted IMO.
Then I have the Australian Independents. Airy fairy wishy washy nonsense, but at least they aren't the Greens.
Palmers United Party doesn't really have policies. Just broad sweeping statements. I agree with some. I disagree with others. Need to do more research.
I'm trying to find info about the new labor candidate but not having much luck.
Socialist Alliance? That would be a resounding no. Second last, Greens last. Have a PLP supported independent who will probably get about 20 votes from family members.
I don't trust my local Liberal candidate. Anyone who photoshops 20kg off themselves for campaign photos can't be trusted IMO.
Then I have the Australian Independents. Airy fairy wishy washy nonsense, but at least they aren't the Greens.
Palmers United Party doesn't really have policies. Just broad sweeping statements. I agree with some. I disagree with others. Need to do more research.
I'm trying to find info about the new labor candidate but not having much luck.
Socialist Alliance? That would be a resounding no. Second last, Greens last. Have a PLP supported independent who will probably get about 20 votes from family members.
