Interest rates to fall, property to boom again.

[bluestorm]

For the Somersofters who found there are too many "interest rates to rise" threads, I thought I'd start one for all you guys. Enjoy

There's an article in the Australian today, suggesting that the dollar may go as high as $1.30 by 2013 and $1.70 by 2014. To avoid Australia industry being killed off, the RBA will need to lower interest rates.
Rampaging dollar 'could hit $US1.70' as budget and industries threatened


This will be a hugh boost for the property, and property will be on another boom ride up.

one of the world's leading foreign exchange experts predicted the dollar would continue to rise and could hit $US1.30 in 2013 and $US1.70 by 2014.

 

[joanmc]

For my personal situation I really really hope this is right!!!!!!
but I dunno.......I am not really willing to bet either way at the moment.

 

[sash]

Well that is what I have been saying for the last few months....the strong dollar is really hurting exporters outside of mining.

My belief is that this will show up in the numbers from June....I think we will have a cut by Sep/Oct this year. You disagreed with me only a week or tow ago

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70136&page=5


As for a massive property boom....yes we will have an upward cycle but it won't be a ridiculous boom.....more likely a 10-15% increase in prices over 2 years.

For the Somersofters who found there are too many "interest rates to rise" threads, I thought I'd start one for all you guys. Enjoy

There's an article in the Australian today, suggesting that the dollar may go as high as $1.30 by 2013 and $1.70 by 2014. To avoid Australia industry being killed off, the RBA will need to lower interest rates.
Rampaging dollar 'could hit $US1.70' as budget and industries threatened


This will be a hugh boost for the property, and property will be on another boom ride up.

 

[Ausprop]

the strong dollar is really hurting exporters outside of mining.

who is this? i think we are net importers of food now?

 

[sash]

Maybe soo.......but Agricultural exports are something like number 3 after education and mining related exports.......

We know that education also hurting.....will definitely interesting.

who is this? i think we are net importers of food now?

 

[Ausprop]

Certainly a good opportunity to pay off national debts. Import machinery and tool up for when the resources boom starts to fade... or at least buy some foreign IP / companies

 

[Ocean Architect]

Certainly a good opportunity to pay off national debts. Import machinery and tool up for when the resources boom starts to fade... or at least buy some foreign IP / companies

The same could have been said when we had a multi billion dollar surplus and decided to stimulate the economy by giving a $900 handout to people who happened to have the greatest propensity to spend the money on imported Chinese goods.

Ironic that we still call ourselves the "clever country" with that troll in office

 

[Nathan]

I somewhat agree with this article...

Time will tell, I was in rates will stay still and fall boat just remember that. And I am offering milky bars if I am wrong. - Me an Sash will import them before rates crash and hand out them from china because they are cheaper to import with dead USD..

 

[bluestorm]

Like moths to a flame. The same people who complained that there were too many "interest rates are rising" and property will fall threads, sudden come one.

Anyway, I disagree. I think interest rates are on the way up in the mid-term. Maybe my late 2013 timing will be spot on. The RBA will raise rates until late 2012 to control inflation (correcting the property market), then drop to counter the rising dollar in 2013/2014.

 

[BuildingBlocks]

I would be surprised to see a fall in rates this year, however it would be most welcome

Gut feel says that the next announcement will most likely be up, but with a slim chance of no change, followed by a no change.

 

[BV]

This will be a hugh boost for the property, and property will be on another boom ride up.

I can't wait
Actually unless a financial storm comes along, I don't think that the RBA will lower IRs by much so a boom is unlikely but even with stable interest rates there will be growth in some areas and particularly in the lower price brackets.

 

[not happy]

I don't care either way.

 

[tubs]

I agree with the article. High rates are attracting people looking for a high, safe return compared to rates in the US and Europe which are basically zero.

This inflates the dollar and hurts industry.

 

[Ausprop]

This inflates the dollar and hurts industry.

Well it hurts some industry. It benefits more and improves living standards for everybody.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Like moths to a flame. The same people who complained that there were too many "interest rates are rising" and property will fall threads, sudden come one.

Anyway, I disagree. I think interest rates are on the way up in the mid-term. Maybe my late 2013 timing will be spot on. The RBA will raise rates until late 2012 to control inflation (correcting the property market), then drop to counter the rising dollar in 2013/2014.

mate i don't think ANYONE can predict where IRs are headed because now with Eurozone uncertainty yet ramping up inflation it's hard to tell what's going on.

said it before, saying it again - STAGFLATION is the best outcome Australia can hope for.

your timing also could be spot on - but not for the reasons you first purported - so don't go becoming a self-proclaimed genius.

$1.70 in 2014 would spell the end of the Amerikan currency being world's reserve. Which means the Amero. Which means the AUD will be about 55-60 Amero, but $1.70 USD.

pfff.

 

[topcropper]

who is this? i think we are net importers of food now?

Rubbish.

Australia has recently become a net importer of procesed food. Our manufacturing industries are so uncompetetive that we can't even turn some flour into biscuits and bung em in a box.

So that's breakfast cereal, biscuits, chocolate, etc, etc. It's why we import so much food. Plus trade agreements with NZ and other places. Plus it's cheaper to grow food in the correct season, and ship it to the other side of the globe in their off season, and then vice-versa than to cold store food for 6 months.


Australia has a massive food surplus, higher than any other country, except perhaps New Zealand. Australia grows 2 tonnes of grain per person, higher than anyother. More meat, second in milk to NZ.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20080226i1.html

Australia topped the list, at 237 percent, followed by other food exporting countries, including Canada at 145 percent, the United States at 128 percent and France at 122 percent. Countries with low figures included Switzerland, at 49 percent, Japan at 39% and South Korea, with a 2002 figure of 47 percent.?

This is the food surplus ratio. Australia produces 237% of it's food needs after imports and exports are equalised. A place like Japan produces 39%.

See ya's.

 

[Aaron Sice]

^^^^ speaking of this - i'm trying to get some stuff manufactured locally.

it's 300% (three hundred percent) more expensive to get it done just down the road and pick it up with my ute than it is to get someone in NZ to make it and ship it across to Perth - INCLUDING GST and Duty.

how's that for stupidity?

Australians are pricing THEMSELVES out of the market - NZ is not exactly on the same par as Vietnam/China/Indonesia, but there you go.

 

[Ausprop]

whatever the case may be, exporters need to learn how to sell something on quality not quantity. We aint China and never will be

 

[Gools]

Australians are pricing THEMSELVES out of the market - NZ is not exactly on the same par as Vietnam/China/Indonesia, but there you go.

Aaron, do we have the capacity to make these things you were after? If we don't have spare capacity, because of mining or whatever demands, then we're not really pricing ourselves out of the market.

 

[topcropper]

whatever the case may be, exporters need to learn how to sell something on quality not quantity. We aint China and never will be

Australian exporters export coal, iron ore, gas, metals, gold, wheat, meat, milk.
What on earth are you talking about? Bulk commodities mate.

We don't export cars, earth moving machinery, aircraft, textiles, computer equipment, TV's, electronic stuff, white goods, furniture, and on and on. That's the stuff you need to have quality not quantity.

It's not australia's commodity exporters fault that we cannot manufacture stuff competitively. It's our high wages and incredible high standard of living that makes us uncompetitive, and our wealth comes from commodity exports. Who wants to work in a factory churning out electronic widgets for $2 an hour anyhow? Not me, and not you.


See ya's.