Is Australia facing an economic downturn/recession?

What outlook does our economy face over the short term?

  • TEOTWAWKI

    Votes: 6 3.1%
  • Depression

    Votes: 10 5.2%
  • Recession

    Votes: 42 21.8%
  • Slight Downturn

    Votes: 76 39.4%
  • Steady As She Goes

    Votes: 48 24.9%
  • Continue To Boom

    Votes: 11 5.7%

  • Total voters
    193
Hey Intrinsic, maybe you should have taken my advise nearly 3 weeks ago. I'm loving the market now. The volatility is excellent for short term gains while people panic to the exits.:D

07/05 - "sell in May and go away"



Also, having correctly timed the Portugal bailout, I'm not watching Spain as the next PIIGS domino to fall in Dec 2011/Jan 2012.
Spain 10yr bonds

lol doesnt help when trading volume is light, there isnt volume to 'move' between positions.

For my micro caps this is usually the situation and i have my IV filters set on higher risk parameters (required when one starts acquiring say 0.5% of a listed company, you cant just day trade that level of exposure).

For the mid caps it does poss more of a headache because i rely on being able to adjust positions around risk and IV, but the volume even in the mid caps is not always there.

In regards to your 'sell in may and go away', this hasnt worked for the last two years, alot of good opportunities would have been missed, at list on my filtering, but this is the first year which it could apply as per historical norms.

By the way i should also add that there is very light selling as well, someone trying to increase positions significantly would be facing the same problem
 
Hey Intrinsic, maybe you should have taken my advise nearly 3 weeks ago. I'm loving the market now. The volatility is excellent for short term gains while people panic to the exits.:D

07/05 - "sell in May and go away"



Also, having correctly timed the Portugal bailout, I'm now watching Spain as the next PIIGS domino to fall in Dec 2011/Jan 2012.
Spain 10yr bonds

one other point i will state, there is NO panick selling, at least not at this point in time. One can tell this by looking at end of day volumes. For market panick to occur downdays should have higher volumes than 'up days'. this is not occuring.

Therefore we have two major factors impacting on market pricing:
(a) illiquidity in the market which emphasises both up/down movements; and
(b) the effect of market speculation, especially speculation in regards to short selling, and speculation as regards to 'sector based' long short positioning (for example through etf's).

The above is for the australian market, the US is a deeper market and cant comment, i'm not close enough to it.
 
lol doesnt help when trading volume is light, there isnt volume to 'move' between positions.

Yeah, agree there is very light volume currently, which makes trading harder on even some of the smaller ASX200 companies (let alone the microcaps).

But back to the main topic, recent news also suggest that China is slowing, with Chinese manufacturing easing to a 10-month low in May, and the increase in interest rates, and bank reserve requirements slowly having an effect.
With China slowing due to reduced world demand, and with the PIIGS problems, and the US is deep trouble, Australia will head into recession in the next 2 quarters. While at the same time, I think Australian interest rates will head up.

China manufacturing growth slows in May
 
Yeah, agree there is very light volume currently, which makes trading harder on even some of the smaller ASX200 companies (let alone the microcaps).

But back to the main topic, recent news also suggest that China is slowing, with Chinese manufacturing easing to a 10-month low in May, and the increase in interest rates, and bank reserve requirements slowly having an effect.
With China slowing due to reduced world demand, and with the PIIGS problems, and the US is deep trouble, Australia will head into recession in the next 2 quarters. While at the same time, I think Australian interest rates will head up.

China manufacturing growth slows in May

refer to bolded part. I'm no economic smart dude, but you would have to say if we go into two neg quaters i think I/R would be on hold at worst, possibly down to spark activity? and control wage inflation by importing some skilled people for mining projects?

Regards,

RH
 
refer to bolded part. I'm no economic smart dude, but you would have to say if we go into two neg quaters i think I/R would be on hold at worst, possibly down to spark activity? and control wage inflation by importing some skilled people for mining projects?

I disagree this time. I think the general rise in global inflation will force the RBA's and on interest rates, and they will be forced to raise rates. I think the banks may also have some small rises of their own as costs of funds go up.
Also if China slows, I don't think the mining boom will save Australia from a recesssion.
 
The USA is a military power that is funded by what....money. Does the USA have money? Yes, printed money, borrowed money...any surplus from their own productivity? No.

They do consume more than they produce but in terms of productivity they are a hell of a lot more productive than Australia.

It is why in the longer term I cannot see how we can be on average wages in Australia of $65,000.00 USD. The current terms of trade and interest margin is supporting this of course but longer term I cannot see it persisting. Either they will have inflation and be paid a lot more, or our dollar will collapse against theres.

In nearly every industry you care to choose from with the exception of mining and there we are only killinng them due to scale and natural endowment, we are falling behind the USA and it is no coincidence that through the 90s we caught up but have been falloing behind ever since.

Recessions while painfull remove waste from an economy. In my little industry of construction we have gone from being 90% as productive in the late 90s to 75% as productive today. If we do not watch productivity ultimately it guides the prosperity of a society collectively, as it is the efficiency of that economy against the world at large making it either competitive or otherwise and guiding the surplus of goods and services available to trade.

Our current federal government is quick to regulate to make things less productive; more childcare workers, more payments to students to take them out of the workforce alltogether etc. I don't see anyone having anything like the concern people felt for productivity in the 90s. Now if we have a problem the government just regulates to make it more labour intensive and seems to think creating jobs is the key. Make your people productive with the infrastructure and education that they need and the rest nearly takes care of itself.
 
^^^^^ this is where the mentality of "leave the private market to itself" comes from.

unfortunately, it also spills over to banks and financial products which - in theory - should be the most efficient of all private institutions if "left alone", but the Alt+A debacle is a solid reminder of why we cannot leave financial markets without regulated checks and balanced.

i think 90% private market efficiency is about as good as can be expected while maintaining sensible regulatory control. after all, the CDO market was 110% efficient with no regulatory control, and now that entire sector is regulated it's non-existent.
 
^^^^^ this is where the mentality of "leave the private market to itself" comes from.

unfortunately, it also spills over to banks and financial products which - in theory - should be the most efficient of all private institutions if "left alone", but the Alt+A debacle is a solid reminder of why we cannot leave financial markets without regulated checks and balanced.

i think 90% private market efficiency is about as good as can be expected while maintaining sensible regulatory control. after all, the CDO market was 110% efficient with no regulatory control, and now that entire sector is regulated it's non-existent.

There is a counter argument about how regulation has caused the crisis in the banking sector in the USA, Ireland etc. I personally don't believe in the following as some regulation is necessary to protect society from their own stupidity but should put it out there for completeness;

If the banks in the USA had not been regulated and bank failures in the past had not seen the establishment of deposit guarantees and government ran deposit insurance individuals depositing with banks would make the decision partly based on which was safe.

Those banks who had strong balance sheets and did not engage in risk taking would get more deposits than those who offered a higher interest rate but also risked depositors funds.

So the government in guaranteeing deposits allows bank to lever off the governments balance sheet to obtain funding even if their own balance sheets stink and their practices leave a lot to be desired.

The recent move on covered bonds in Australia is a shocking moral hazard and I can put my hand on my heart and virtually promise this will come back and haunt us possibly in the next decade but if not repealed (which will be difficult) it will eventually. Whenever you have a guarantee in place from the government it will be taken advantage of by those that benifit from the guarantee.

Put yourself in the position of a bank in Australia. You can with 8% capital over your deposit liabilities go to people and tell them I want to borrow money and you can guarantee them their capital back and 6.5% interest all guaranteed by the Australian government. Of course you are going to lever up with reckless ababndon only constrained by the 8% of your own capital. i.e. on every 100k of equity you have you can go and get 1.25million dollars to invest. Who wouldn't have a crack with that.

If you cannot make 6.5% investing it you are a mug right? and if you cannot or lose the lot you only lose your 8% capital anyway the rest comes from the taxpayer.

So the bank can engage in risk taking and the customer (depositor) does not even care, as they get paid either way. If it was a true market different banks would advertise say; 10% capital over deposit liabilities or perhaps 20% but with an interest rate of 3.5% etc. There would be choice and part of that choice is who is the riskiest. At present the choice for a depositor is simply, who has the highest rate of interest. Nothing else matters a jot.

My own opinion is there must be regulation in banking as you are saying and I don't mind sounding hypocritical around this.

As Chifley said banks are too important to be run by the private sector. I would not go this far but due to their connexion with the economy they need to be regulated to achieve slow and steady growth maintaining healthy balance sheets along the way.

The banks certainly should have minimum capital requirements be constrained on the method of valuation of their assets be they risky or otherwise. All this regulation they have now but the government should not be guaranteeing their funding nor allowing them to issue bonds covered by these guaranteed deposits and worse now contributing a component of their funding. It is going down a path that we already know the destination.

When it comes to investments created off the back of mortgages like RMBS, I will be buggered if I know why anyone ever buys them? You don't have bank capital shielding (well 8% odd is better than nothing) you from a loss and yet they pay the same interest as bank deposits. I guess this is why the government has had to step in and take up a swag of these RMBS as people are wising up to the fact being on the banks balance sheet is better than being off it. They actually care about who they lend to when they risk the loss themselves.
 
The USA is a military power that is funded by what....money. Does the USA have money? Yes, printed money, borrowed money...any surplus from their own productivity? No.

Read a book on the fall of Rome...the parallels are uncanny. No country can invade the US, but they will unwittingly destroy themselves. I don't want that to happen...for all the negative things I can say about the USA, compared to the nations that are the next on the succession line...it scares me to death. Imagine China becomes the dominant superpower, I think Australia is in BIG trouble.

As for Australia heading into recession? Well, if the RBA participates in the debasing or devaluing of the AUD, then no, I think we can avoid it. However, if the AUD stays past parity for another few months, I guarantee you we will get there before the end of the year. Ofcourse, devaluing the dollar will send energy and food prices even higher...its all so complicated :)

Why's it in big trouble? Because it can no longer parade alongside the US after invading someone else's country? Imagine if the Middle East was in power, then Australia's in big trouble.
 
Why's it in big trouble? Because it can no longer parade alongside the US after invading someone else's country? Imagine if the Middle East was in power, then Australia's in big trouble.

We are in trouble because China will have no qualms about taking Australia for its needs. China has no respect of intellectual property...its a communist country, private property is not part of their ideology. Add to that that they steal tech, pattens, impede copyright laws etc etc, and I believe they will have no qualms about taking from us what they want.

All that is keeping them in check is the USA, but if their main threat is gone, I can see them taking Taiwan, and then Australia. Australia will be invaded in mere days. Even Canberra is worried about the rise of China, many reports have alluded to many military reports at the highest levels of Canberra perceiving this threat.
 
You may be right Daniel but in the absence of a blue water navy and a strategic airforce I doubt they have plans of a hostile takeover. Where is the need?
 
You may be right Daniel but in the absence of a blue water navy and a strategic airforce I doubt they have plans of a hostile takeover. Where is the need?

Need? Really? Did Hitler NEED to take Europe? Did Alexander NEED to take the middle east? No one ever needs to invade, they WANT to invade.
 
Need? Really? Did Hitler NEED to take Europe? Did Alexander NEED to take the middle east? No one ever needs to invade, they WANT to invade.
That's a very superficial assessment but I'm aware that history is a very neglected subject and I make no claims to being a "student"myself. But there is always a reason.

I questioned the need to go to war because they are doing very nicely by enslaving their own people to conquer the world on the commercial ground not the battle ground. The aforementioned total disregard to intellectual property and the theft of technology are very effective, and bloodless, tactics.

Why do YOU think they don't have an expensive navy and airforce?
 
That's a very superficial assessment but I'm aware that history is a very neglected subject and I make no claims to being a "student"myself. But there is always a reason.

I questioned the need to go to war because they are doing very nicely by enslaving their own people to conquer the world on the commercial ground not the battle ground. The aforementioned total disregard to intellectual property and the theft of technology are very effective, and bloodless, tactics.

Why do YOU think they don't have an expensive navy and airforce?

Ive read over 30 books on WW2, Alexander the great, the spartans, the trajans, the roman empire etc etc...war is superficial and vain in the majority of cases. Regardless, China is doing fine right now, as far as we can tell, who knows? I read how when Hitler became the leader of Hitler, he turned the economy around, it was doing very well....yet he still attacked.

The chinese govt. is a ruthless totalitarian dictatorship.
 
I read how when Hitler became the leader of Hitler, he turned the economy around, it was doing very well....yet he still attacked.

Indeed, without depression or desperation such despots cannot rise to power in the first place. People describe his economy however after those initial years as a plunder economy because it needed both the activity generated by the war as well as the wealth it took from defeated nations.

What has always concerned me about humanities history is that we have gone through periods of time where we are all typically moderates before the current age, always when the going is good.

Desperate times though bring out the worst in us humans unfortunately and it is at those times the likes of Hitler have risen to power.

The chinese are a reasonably moderate people, IMO who would not stand for their government wholesale invading other countries even if they could, as we would not stand for it here. This is the key though, if they were starving yet still capable it would be a different story.
 
The chinese are a reasonably moderate people, IMO who would not stand for their government wholesale invading other countries even if they could, as we would not stand for it here. This is the key though, if they were starving yet still capable it would be a different story.

I sense the US are soon to be starving (by their bloated standards) and they have the military and mentality to react like cornered rats. They're a worry. :)
 
Ive read over 30 books on WW2, Alexander the great, the spartans, the trajans, the roman empire etc etc...war is superficial and vain in the majority of cases. Regardless, China is doing fine right now, as far as we can tell, who knows? I read how when Hitler became the leader of Hitler, he turned the economy around, it was doing very well....yet he still attacked.

The chinese govt. is a ruthless totalitarian dictatorship.

Outside views may have had the German economy looking good, however it was teetering on collapse the whole time. Huge inflationary worries, constant stimulus to keep industry afloat, non-profitable business, forced labour. Wasn't exactly an economy 'doing very well', that's just History Channel stuff. :)

Luff the Chinese Gov. They'll keep pushing the Chinese upwards until they cannot any longer, and then there will be political evolution into nationalistic democracy. Watch this space.
 
Outside views may have had the German economy looking good, however it was teetering on collapse the whole time.
Of course it was. The reparations demanded by the French, Poms and Yanks were impossible.

Talk about unintended consequences!!!! You fine a nation for going to war with you so heavily that the only way out was to go back to war.

Germany needed a patriot and Hitler stood up.

I am not defending Hitler merely recalling history as I understand it.
 
China could soon be in strife, Inadequate water supplies, hence,food and energy(hydro power) already had to increase oil imports by 300,000 barrels per day. The severity of winter kill wont be known until the crop comes out of dormancy. Worst drought for 50 years in Europe(hotest may in england and wales since records began 353 years ago and expected to continue) China and Africa Parts of USA in drought other parts flooded, Devasting floods in Asia and South America . Hold on could be a rough ride coming unless weather parterns change.
 
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