Hold on could be a rough ride coming unless weather parterns change.
The la Nina is decaying. All will be back to a different version of "normal" soon. LOL
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Hold on could be a rough ride coming unless weather parterns change.
The la Nina is decaying. All will be back to a different version of "normal" soon. LOL
Of course it was. The reparations demanded by the French, Poms and Yanks were impossible.
Talk about unintended consequences!!!! You fine a nation for going to war with you so heavily that the only way out was to go back to war.
Germany needed a patriot and Hitler stood up.
I am not defending Hitler merely recalling history as I understand it.
We are in trouble because China will have no qualms about taking Australia for its needs. China has no respect of intellectual property...its a communist country, private property is not part of their ideology. Add to that that they steal tech, pattens, impede copyright laws etc etc, and I believe they will have no qualms about taking from us what they want.
All that is keeping them in check is the USA, but if their main threat is gone, I can see them taking Taiwan, and then Australia. Australia will be invaded in mere days. Even Canberra is worried about the rise of China, many reports have alluded to many military reports at the highest levels of Canberra perceiving this threat.
I'm an AGW sceptic, but even I am wondering about the weather extremes. I just can't get on board with the alarmists' rhetoric but if someone were to quietly explain without trying to scare the pants off me, I'd be polite and listen. I might even learn something.It sure has caused some havock this year.
As buster says above, there is some interesting stuff going on around the world at the moment. Floods in northern US where they want it dry for planting corn and soybeans and drought and heatwave elsewhere, where grain crops are trying to fill with grain.
See ya's.
I'm an AGW sceptic, but even I am wondering about the weather extremes. I just can't get on board with the alarmists' rhetoric but if someone were to quietly explain without trying to scare the pants off me, I'd be polite and listen. I might even learn something.
Interesting piece today from Unconventional Economist on the correlation between housing growth and consumption:
http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/05/house-prices-and-consumption/
Could be in for further poor retail spending if the correlation is to continue...
Also delinquencies on the rise:
http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/05/rmbs-arrears-above-gfc/
30+ day delinquencies at record levels (above the GFC), 90+ days aren't there yet but rising sharply.
Clearly not all is well under the surface.
Fair call re this being only part of the market, however they differentiate between prime and low-doc loans in the report. Low-doc arrears/delinquencies are much higher (almost 7% for 30 day arrears).Do you realize that the Fitch Chart only goes back six and a half years and deals with residential mortgage-backed securities - mortgages that had been packaged up and sold off by the loan originators - and especially the "low-doc" variety.
Record levels mentioned in first line of scribd document.Where in the report does it list 30+ day delinquencies are at record levels and would you show me where the 90+ days are listed on the report/chart.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...atural-disasters/story-e6frg926-1226066438394Moody's Analytics economist Matthew Circosta said he now expects to see a 1.7 per cent contraction in growth in the first quarter, the biggest since the economy was last in recession in the early 1990s.
Maybe we are,but that does not mean you have to take part in it,..we are likely already in a recession.
http://
Maybe we are,but that does not mean you have to take part in it,..
Hobo-Jo,
I see your bearish posts on property here and on hotcopper. I think we all know what your feelings are towards the asset class.
This thread is about an economic downturn, not sure I'd relate it directly to property although no doubt it will have an effect (for example if you are a reader of HC you may have noticed my post on what I expect to see rents do due to the recession).I much prefer your posts on making money (Eg. Gold/silver stocks, asset allocating) you are a smart dude and probably have alot more to offer then this relentless beating of the property death drum. We get it.....
It's a more realistic view than the 30% who still thing "steady as she goes", and the 8% , who think that things will "continue to boom" (maybe Propertunity is in this lot).
We are heading into a deep downturn over the next 2yrs, and despite your wishful thinking Ridin, property is going to correct by 30% (40% if you include inflation - real term correction).
The only thing that amazes me is that economists continue to be "surprised" by the negative numbers, and slowing economy.
- If i applied your 30% price drop, that means the price would go from 380k to 266k
- Their was sales in that range during 2001
For this to happen the country would have to goto ***** and i'm not wishing for that