Property Bubble

[hobo-jo]

turk, please learn how the quote tags work, it's not that hard. Thanks

Sep-2008 128.5 hobo-jo predicts 15-20% price drop over several years

Can you provide a link to the 2008 prediction as I don't recall being that bearish so early on. I believe it was late 2009 when I said 15-20% over a few years. It was more like 5-15% by mid 2012 depending on the city, so I was off by a fair margin, but then I don't think we've seen the nominal bottom for some capitals...

 

[Shadow]

not sure I would call it boom territory (yet)

ABS is six months behind reality. Look at auction clearance rates. We're in a boom alright. It's all over the MSM, and as usual the MSM are only waking up to the fact well after the boom began. We've been in a boom for a while now, and it will continue until interest rates rise significantly.

 

[turk]

turk, please learn how the quote tags work, it's not that hard. Thanks


Can you provide a link to the 2008 prediction as I don't recall being that bearish so early on. I believe it was late 2009 when I said 15-20% over a few years. It was more like 5-15% by mid 2012 depending on the city, so I was off by a fair margin, but then I don't think we've seen the nominal bottom for some capitals...

For a young fella you're pretty forgetful(when it suits you)

On the 1st September 2009 in an earlier Keen thread you stated


Keen was always shooting too high, in my opinion he was just trying to grab headlines with his bearish predictions, though do think he has done some great research.

My call around 12 months ago was that we would see 15-20% off the top of nominal prices over the next several years. I still think we'll see it.

This crisis is FAR from over.

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55187&page=3

As for now claiming your mid 2012 prediction was that prices would be off by 5-15%. the truth is that you were still predicting 15-20% plus potential for larger falls given the right circumstances.


So I think prices are playing out pretty close to expected. Melbourne bucked trend in 2010 and continued to boom and I think Melbourne will now pay the price by falling a lot harder than other capitals over the next couple of years.

As I pointed out at the start of this thread and in the post from January 2010 I think there is the potential for larger falls given the right circumstances (global conditions worsening).[/I]


http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59957&page=3

That still leaves you predicting around a 30% fall to reach 20% off 2008 prices, puts you in Keen territory.

 

[Tim]

Wtf are you on about

The article I posted says it all, which is whatever you think is occurring now needs to be taken into context against much longer term indicators.

 

[hobo-jo]

As for now claiming your mid 2012 prediction was that prices would be off by 5-15%. the truth is that you were still predicting 15-20% plus potential for larger falls given the right circumstances.

What are you talking about turk? You are off the deep end, please join us back in reality and stop being disingenuous.

I didn't make any mid 2012 prediction, that is how far most capitals had fallen from the 2010 peak ie I am saying capitals were down 5-15% by mid 2012 (from the peak). So my prediction of 15-20% over several years was off by a fair margin as I said in my last post.

I didn't say they would fall 15-20% from 2008, I said they would fall by that amount FROM THE PEAK, which I later clarified on this forum to be Q1 2010. In the context of the conversation that you linked from 2009 I was simply explaining that once housing does peak I expect a more subdued correction than Keen's claim of 40%.

January 2010:

I know you've heard it all before and I must sound like a broken record (although I have never made this sort of prediction before), but tipping point is Qtr 1 2010. I don't think the downturn will be as severe as most bears hope for, but I don't expect to see gains like it would seem most bulls are still expecting.

turk, if you have a better record of predicting price fluctuations then feel free to link to your correct calls, but whether prices fell 15-20% or not I still think the call for a price correction from Q1 2010 was pretty good. Most capital city medians are still below their 2010 peak.

 

[turk]

What are you talking about turk? You are off the deep end, please join us back in reality and stop being disingenuous.

I didn't make any mid 2012 prediction, that is how far most capitals had fallen from the 2010 peak ie I am saying capitals were down 5-15% by mid 2012 (from the peak). So my prediction of 15-20% over several years was off by a fair margin as I said in my last post.

I didn't say they would fall 15-20% from 2008, I said they would fall by that amount FROM THE PEAK, which I later clarified on this forum to be Q1 2010. In the context of the conversation that you linked from 2009 I was simply explaining that once housing does peak I expect a more subdued correction than Keen's claim of 40%.

January 2010:


turk, if you have a better record of predicting price fluctuations then feel free to link to your correct calls, but whether prices fell 15-20% or not I still think the call for a price correction from Q1 2010 was pretty good. Most capital city medians are still below their 2010 peak.

hobo

Another one of your convenient clarifications.

You were still predicting further falls Mid 2012, this from 18-6-2012

I don't think the price falls are over.

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59957&page=3


House prices according to Price Index of Established Houses; Weighted Average of 8 Capital Cities; via ABS: rose 100% from 74.3 in March 2002 to a peak of 149.8 in June 2010, then retraced 5% in 18 months and have now surpassed the previous peak.

You can claim to have made a good call but rather than the 15-20% drop in prices over the next few years and probably another 5+ years stagnation/low growth that you predicted we have a new peak in prices.

 

[The Fence]

And gold floundering, teetering on the edge of collapse.

Just sayin...

 

[tambourineman]

ABS is six months behind reality. Look at auction clearance rates. We're in a boom alright. It's all over the MSM, and as usual the MSM are only waking up to the fact well after the boom began. We've been in a boom for a while now, and it will continue until interest rates rise significantly.

And then it ends in tears

 

[hobo-jo]

You can claim to have made a good call but rather than the 15-20% drop in prices over the next few years and probably another 5+ years stagnation/low growth that you predicted we have a new peak in prices.

One city has reached a new peak (putting the national level just above the line).

I don't think this correction/low growth period is over. I think there is a good chance some cities make new nominal lows.

I think over the 5 year time frame most if not all capital cities will have grown less than inflation (not to say there won't be spurts of growth at times).

 

[turk]

One city has reached a new peak (putting the national level just above the line).

I don't think this correction/low growth period is over. I think there is a good chance some cities make new nominal lows.

I think over the 5 year time frame most if not all capital cities will have grown less than inflation (not to say there won't be spurts of growth at times).

hobo

You used the Price Index of Established Houses; Weighted Average of 8 Capital Cities; via ABS: in your previous post and I answered using the same, so I will stick with that.

This ABS Index has 3 capitals exceeding their previous highs,

Sydney Old Peak 117.3 New Peak 122.7
Perth Old Peak 208.7 New Peak 218.7
Darwin Old Peak 223.8 New Peak 251.4

it has Canberra just off its old peak
Old Peak 148.0 Last Median 147.2

also Melbourne- RP Data has a 4.87% increase for the quarter if this translates into the ABS data the new peak would be 178.5

Old Peak 177.2 +RPData Incr. 178.5


The fact is that the Australian median has increase well over 100%, retraced 5% and has now hit a new high, with 3 Capital Cities on new highs , 1 just off and another most likely to have hit a new high in the September Quarter.

You predicted 15-20% off the market peak over several years and probably another 5+ years stagnation/low growth

We are now several years off the June 2010 peak and at a new high.

Love your definition of a pretty good call.

 

[hobo-jo]

So why don't you dig up some of your property market expectations from 4 years ago turk and we'll compare notes....

 

[turk]

So why don't you dig up some of your property market expectations from 4 years ago turk and we'll compare notes....

hobo,

very mature, a bit of schoolyard behaviour of you've seen mine, now show me yours

I very rarely make predictions but here's one which was in the other Keen thread previously linked to here.

04-09-2009

I've been bearish on Aust. stocks and property in the short term and remained bullish long term, I trade shares and am a trend follower so downside is covered and with property I make sure I have cover should the market collapse to the extent Keen forecast.

It appears to me that whether bullish or bearish it is wiser not to be blinkered.

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55187&page=10

I included the last line of the Quote specifically for you.

Seems to be playing out to date, but as you know predictions have a habit of making people look stupid.

What matters to me is the nitty gritty of the "deal" and the result.

When I get time I post up some results of investments I have made including,

-Residential Property
-Industrial Property
-Retail Property
-Share Investment and how I invest
-Share Trading,my latest buy and why I bought it.

Then in the interests of equality you could post the results of the "deals" you have talked about here including,

-The business plan for the house that you bought to develop at a later date
-Moving your Superannuation to gold stocks
-Investing 10% of your portfolio into silver options9SLV).