I have constantly said i have no idea where the market indexes will move because there are too many factors involved.
The prevailing trend is down. That might give you a clue .
However having said that, what proportion of the ASX weightings is made up of the top 10 stocks? From memory it used to be something like 50 or 60% of the index. So movements in the top 10 stocks will have significant influence on the movement of the index itself.
That's why they have indexes. In this case, the ASX 200.
However i have also stressed that this is going to be a stock pickers market. Just because the index moves in a certain direction, doesnt mean all shares move in that direction.
That applies in any market at any time and when isn't it a stockpickers market?
Touch wood i am still up 20% from the November lows, whether this holds, goes up or goes down i have no idea (as in the short term market sentiment plays a big part), but what i do know is that over the longer term, companies will be revalued according to their fundamentals.
The whole market is always determined by sentiment but its real events that determine that sentiment.