http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estat...ays-to-purchase-property-20140903-10btc7.html
Heres one for ya Cliff
OMG , I missed one .... Must be slipping
Thanks mate
Cliff
See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .
- Thread starter see_change
- Start date
OMG , I missed one .... Must be slipping
Thanks mate
Cliff
On the tools...
I think macroprudential is where we are headed if the market doesn't cool by itself. The risk of crushing the rest of the economy with rate rises when there isn't much in the way of productive investment going on is too high for Glenn "The Jawbone" Stevens to take.
It will be interesting to see if it is actually the housing market that pushes the tools debate. I think it will be rising unemployment and shrinking GDP growth that will actually cause big business and the government to push for more investment in other areas, and as a populace we are bad at listening so they will hit us with the macro hammer to push money elsewhere. It will most likely be APRA who pulls the trigger with either investment ratios for the banks lending businesses or LVR ratios like NZ.
I think macroprudential is where we are headed if the market doesn't cool by itself. The risk of crushing the rest of the economy with rate rises when there isn't much in the way of productive investment going on is too high for Glenn "The Jawbone" Stevens to take.
It will be interesting to see if it is actually the housing market that pushes the tools debate. I think it will be rising unemployment and shrinking GDP growth that will actually cause big business and the government to push for more investment in other areas, and as a populace we are bad at listening so they will hit us with the macro hammer to push money elsewhere. It will most likely be APRA who pulls the trigger with either investment ratios for the banks lending businesses or LVR ratios like NZ.
Strong house price growth is good for the economy
Just a reminder as to what our esteemed leader and his trusty economic controller thought about increasing property prices when prices just started moving late last year
Strong house price growth is good for the economy
The Prime Minister said house price gains spread wealth throughout the community. "If housing prices go up, sure that makes it harder to get into the market, but it also means that everyone who is in the market has a more valuable asset."
Mr Abbott also said it was important to improve housing supply. "If there's a strong market for flats and for houses, that's a good thing, not a bad thing."
......
However, the Treasurer, who confirmed briefings with the Reserve, said yesterday the most important issue from his perspective was to restore confidence.
"Rising house prices actually help to make marginal property development viable. There is a shortage of supply out there and what this will do is make supply more readily available," he said.
Increasing prices leads to increasing assetts , leads to increased confidence leads to increased spending ......
Cliff
Just a reminder as to what our esteemed leader and his trusty economic controller thought about increasing property prices when prices just started moving late last year
Strong house price growth is good for the economy
The Prime Minister said house price gains spread wealth throughout the community. "If housing prices go up, sure that makes it harder to get into the market, but it also means that everyone who is in the market has a more valuable asset."
Mr Abbott also said it was important to improve housing supply. "If there's a strong market for flats and for houses, that's a good thing, not a bad thing."
......
However, the Treasurer, who confirmed briefings with the Reserve, said yesterday the most important issue from his perspective was to restore confidence.
"Rising house prices actually help to make marginal property development viable. There is a shortage of supply out there and what this will do is make supply more readily available," he said.
Increasing prices leads to increasing assetts , leads to increased confidence leads to increased spending ......
Cliff
The home buyers lined up for land is one sign we are already there, as is the market share that investors are blindly buying up:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/07/sell-sydney-property/
RP Data chart showing rate of growth likely to have peaked, indicating price peak also near and decline to come...
If you're timing cycles, then time to sell (Sydney) is probably now.
Yep, fair enough or that.Or extract Equity
The home buyers lined up for land is one sign we are already there, as is the market share that investors are blindly buying up:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/07/sell-sydney-property/
RP Data chart showing rate of growth likely to have peaked, indicating price peak also near and decline to come...
If you're timing cycles, then time to sell (Sydney) is probably now.
Do you have an SA graph or where can I find them? thanks
Sydney was very much underperformed for a decade (October 2013).
"Over the past decade (written on October 2013), dwelling prices have risen by:-
31 per cent in Sydney
79 per cent in Brisbane
80 per cent in Melbourne
143 per cent in Perth"
In saying that, the experienced investors are looking for selling, instead of buying at this stage of property cycle, if he isn't the buy/hold style investors.
If I am a new investor without any property, I will still buy in Sydney. However, the price I pay today might be up very quickly now, but could be down back to today's level after maybe 5 years later when the market is very cool at that time.
So, I will buy with more careful and make sure I can hold on it for next 10 years.
There are a lot of mum and dad developers/new agents all over the Sydney. Their old business were tough and is making good money now in RE. Someone is buying few new blocks in the Ponds land release, and always there when a new land is released.
At the end of property cycle, there are always quite few developers who are making big money during the boom time, but have to declare bankruptcy at the end.
"Over the past decade (written on October 2013), dwelling prices have risen by:-
31 per cent in Sydney
79 per cent in Brisbane
80 per cent in Melbourne
143 per cent in Perth"
In saying that, the experienced investors are looking for selling, instead of buying at this stage of property cycle, if he isn't the buy/hold style investors.
If I am a new investor without any property, I will still buy in Sydney. However, the price I pay today might be up very quickly now, but could be down back to today's level after maybe 5 years later when the market is very cool at that time.
So, I will buy with more careful and make sure I can hold on it for next 10 years.
There are a lot of mum and dad developers/new agents all over the Sydney. Their old business were tough and is making good money now in RE. Someone is buying few new blocks in the Ponds land release, and always there when a new land is released.
At the end of property cycle, there are always quite few developers who are making big money during the boom time, but have to declare bankruptcy at the end.
I don't want to put specifics of a pending sale coming up , but there was a house that went for auction around six weeks ago that didn't sell . Highest bid ? 1.8 - 1.9 . Has been relisted and going to auction again this weekend .
Most " failed auctions " have been listed for sale and then sell in the next 1 - 4 weeks , so it's unusual in our local market to have a repeat auction . I probably would expect around 1. 9 , maybe 2 if they're lucky .
Will report back after the auction on Saturday .
Cliff
Most " failed auctions " have been listed for sale and then sell in the next 1 - 4 weeks , so it's unusual in our local market to have a repeat auction . I probably would expect around 1. 9 , maybe 2 if they're lucky .
Will report back after the auction on Saturday .
Cliff
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Why does sydney need hyping when it's doing the job?
Look see change this is good for sellers but how is it sustainable with all things considered?
Just saying,i'm postive but the future line looks a tough road and a lot of walking backwards.
Kind regards Shovelhead.
It's from this RP Data update: http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=101667
Hi Shovelhead
I was being accused of hyping Sydney in other threads when I was reporting articles in the media that were positive about Sydney , so for me the title is slightly " tongue in cheek " , but it will be the place I put any links that are positive about the prospects of Sydney . Nothing more , nothing less , so I can't be accused of having a " hidden Agenda " .
Not saying it's wrong or right . In the long term it's obviously not sustainable , but what that time frame is , is open to debate . Just will be reporting on what is going on.
Cliff
Fair enough see change
Does anyone have statistics on the demographic of people buying in Sydney at the moment and how they are financing?
Things like age, status, income, local vs foreign, cash vs leveraging, investment vs PPOR, LVR, FHOG, single vs couple buyers, even the amount of buyers receiving gifted deposits from parents could help paint a better picture on how stressed, frantic, sensitivity to interest rate/market movements, etc current buyers are exposed to
Things like age, status, income, local vs foreign, cash vs leveraging, investment vs PPOR, LVR, FHOG, single vs couple buyers, even the amount of buyers receiving gifted deposits from parents could help paint a better picture on how stressed, frantic, sensitivity to interest rate/market movements, etc current buyers are exposed to
This is a excellent article:
1. All cities have about 8% growth in 15 years -amazing figure;
2. Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane shows the best buy now due to
- higher sale volume up comparing to last year,
- current price is lower than previous peak
- and it has no/little movement for 5 years.
Think you were spot on with that. This part of the demographic has certainly contributed to the shortage of stock. Those who remain as tenants prove to be reliable and long term. From a purely numbers pov they've been good for the area, it turns out.
What factors might cause a downturn ?
Since the RPdata report came out around a week ago , we've had a series or articles based around it , initially reporting the boom , then sounding words of caution , now comes this
Probably the most balanced one I've seen is this one
So what might be the factors causing a downturn?
....
The obvious one? A rise in interest rates. Kusher notes that this could slow down the exuberance in the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
At present, the RBA has pointed to stability as the likely course of action, with experts predicting rises in 2015.
?With interest rates already at historic low levels and returns on safe investment classes so low, the maintenance of current interest rate settings is likely to continue to encourage investment in housing,? he said.
.......
?Of course, other sectors of the economy need lower interest rates so they have continually flagged a period of rates stability,? he said.
?With home values in Sydney and Melbourne continuing to march higher it seems as if only higher interest rates or the introduction of macro prudential tools can realistically stop the growth in home value.?
Cliff
Since the RPdata report came out around a week ago , we've had a series or articles based around it , initially reporting the boom , then sounding words of caution , now comes this
Probably the most balanced one I've seen is this one
So what might be the factors causing a downturn?
....
The obvious one? A rise in interest rates. Kusher notes that this could slow down the exuberance in the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
At present, the RBA has pointed to stability as the likely course of action, with experts predicting rises in 2015.
?With interest rates already at historic low levels and returns on safe investment classes so low, the maintenance of current interest rate settings is likely to continue to encourage investment in housing,? he said.
.......
?Of course, other sectors of the economy need lower interest rates so they have continually flagged a period of rates stability,? he said.
?With home values in Sydney and Melbourne continuing to march higher it seems as if only higher interest rates or the introduction of macro prudential tools can realistically stop the growth in home value.?
Cliff
Hello all,
I am a long term reader of this forum and finally recently I bought a existing house + land in Sydney as PPOR. walk to station, 19kms to CBD. South side ... Given this thread is about Sydney here is something to share and ask...
See_change, you have several IPs in NSW, is land tax not an issue to you because the CF is almost positive and you have CG ?
Also the property I bought is about 800k. Before I bought it I did a bank valuation, end up I am buying it 50k below the bank valuation, probably it is because
1. that area is not well known to the Chinese yet,
2. it was raining very bad last few weekends, not many people inspect
3. it is not the best house on the street...
4. bad presentation, and kind of a forced sale. I was quick and ready
also a comment about cashed up chinese buying up properties, if they can afford 2 mil properties it won't cost them much to get australian PR, the market price for arranged marriages is about 80k.... much less than the stamp duty which they are going to pay.
also IMO housing risk for sydney is for strata, because once a strata has been built, there is one land + house gone forever....
I am a long term reader of this forum and finally recently I bought a existing house + land in Sydney as PPOR. walk to station, 19kms to CBD. South side ... Given this thread is about Sydney here is something to share and ask...
See_change, you have several IPs in NSW, is land tax not an issue to you because the CF is almost positive and you have CG ?
Also the property I bought is about 800k. Before I bought it I did a bank valuation, end up I am buying it 50k below the bank valuation, probably it is because
1. that area is not well known to the Chinese yet,
2. it was raining very bad last few weekends, not many people inspect
3. it is not the best house on the street...
4. bad presentation, and kind of a forced sale. I was quick and ready
also a comment about cashed up chinese buying up properties, if they can afford 2 mil properties it won't cost them much to get australian PR, the market price for arranged marriages is about 80k.... much less than the stamp duty which they are going to pay.
also IMO housing risk for sydney is for strata, because once a strata has been built, there is one land + house gone forever....
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