You're dreaming or thinking of another user (which would not surprise me given your mixup in the last post), I have certainly not been sparring on this issue with you for "years", if you think otherwise then please link an example post that is older than 12 months.
State of Australian housing market
- Thread starter hobo-jo
- Start date
Why would I sell it to you at market price less anything? Wouldn't I just sell it at market price? These posts are always so confusing...
"Ages" = past 5-6 months. Didn't you read?
Great good on you - I read somewhere that clearance rate this wkend was nearly sub-60%.
Oh I know where I read it now... everywhere in the newspapers!!!
Why would I take up your bet to sell anything below "market value"?
Maybe property is a bit hard for you to understand. Think of this share market example. BHP share price = $46. I think it will fall to $20. That doesn't mean I'll sell it to you at anything below $46... because I can just sell it for $46 now and wait for the crash?
So, if that's not too confusing for you to handle, would you like to buy my properties at market value? I don't even need a premium...
And your example would hold true if property was as liquid as shares but given your the aparent expert you would know this. For instance how much demand at any given instant is there for your number of shares versus say your investment property? I am curious given my confusion and given im a little thick as you suggest to in your post.
Further more my limited understanding is that a crash in property doesnt occur overnight it creeps up on you, taking months to become obvious trapping vendors who instead of selling today hold out for a higher or even what they perceive as market price. The crash escalates when such vendors become forced vendors selling for lower ajnd lower prices. Unlike shares when fear can take hold overnight creating an instant drop in price but again sorry to bore you with such details given your superior understanding on the topic.
If this wasnt the case then property would never drop because it will simply sell constantly at market price but market price shifts, therefore accepting under what you perceive is todays market price is logical in a falling market because tommorows price is less than todays and further more there are less and less buyers available meaning your next opportunity to sell maybe months away and who knows the price then.
So let me throw a better example compared to shares which have no correlation really with property. Say I am a developer and beleive todays market price is $400k but I beleive the market is falling leading to a crash (40%) and a buyer offers $380k should I accept? Yes? No? - if NO like you suggest, why? under your theory I should wait for "market price" correct? But we both know another buyer may take 2+ months in a slowing market to eventuate and then prices maybe $390k and offers come in at $370k?
So lets say your a guy called deltaberry holding an investment property and you think a crash is coming and he owns a property worth $400k today and a developer say tcocaro offers him $380k should he sell?
Further more my limited understanding is that a crash in property doesnt occur overnight it creeps up on you, taking months to become obvious trapping vendors who instead of selling today hold out for a higher or even what they perceive as market price. The crash escalates when such vendors become forced vendors selling for lower ajnd lower prices. Unlike shares when fear can take hold overnight creating an instant drop in price but again sorry to bore you with such details given your superior understanding on the topic.
If this wasnt the case then property would never drop because it will simply sell constantly at market price but market price shifts, therefore accepting under what you perceive is todays market price is logical in a falling market because tommorows price is less than todays and further more there are less and less buyers available meaning your next opportunity to sell maybe months away and who knows the price then.
So let me throw a better example compared to shares which have no correlation really with property. Say I am a developer and beleive todays market price is $400k but I beleive the market is falling leading to a crash (40%) and a buyer offers $380k should I accept? Yes? No? - if NO like you suggest, why? under your theory I should wait for "market price" correct? But we both know another buyer may take 2+ months in a slowing market to eventuate and then prices maybe $390k and offers come in at $370k?
So lets say your a guy called deltaberry holding an investment property and you think a crash is coming and he owns a property worth $400k today and a developer say tcocaro offers him $380k should he sell?
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I was exagerating, like saying "yonks".
But your right in a way I am not really thinking hard when I read your posts or reply to them given they all pretty much bore me and I am tired of your attitude. replies like;
"lol pathetic, what are you 5 years old?"
Pretty much is the level of dicsussion I expect from you. Good luck with your future endevours.
But your right in a way I am not really thinking hard when I read your posts or reply to them given they all pretty much bore me and I am tired of your attitude. replies like;
"lol pathetic, what are you 5 years old?"
Pretty much is the level of dicsussion I expect from you. Good luck with your future endevours.
Ummm Melbourne was 61.6% for the weekend ending October 31st. So unless your talking about the week ending November 7th and unless the weekend papers you read are printed a week early I cannot understand how you read weekend papers reporting on that weekends results - amazing stuff!. Either way the week ending the 7th posted 61% which is amazing given the interest rate hike. I for one would have expected Melb to perform weaker given its the market that ran hottest these past few months.
Also there was double the properties going to auction as the week before.
Semantics really clearance rates just above 60 or below 60 dont really change anything but it does show the market hasnt fallen through the floor and also shows you shouldnt berate Biggles particularly when you are wrong.
Cheers.
Also there was double the properties going to auction as the week before.
Semantics really clearance rates just above 60 or below 60 dont really change anything but it does show the market hasnt fallen through the floor and also shows you shouldnt berate Biggles particularly when you are wrong.
Cheers.
Of course there are "markets within markets" etc, but no one can deny that the sentiment on housing is generally down across the nation.
I'm not denying that there are not deals to be had, but focusing on a submarket to justify a bullish view on the market generally is illogical.
The WA paper on the weekend had a massive front page headline: "Housing Reaches 20 Year Low". Or something to that effect. Headlines like this certainly dampen sentiment.
I'm not denying that there are not deals to be had, but focusing on a submarket to justify a bullish view on the market generally is illogical.
The WA paper on the weekend had a massive front page headline: "Housing Reaches 20 Year Low". Or something to that effect. Headlines like this certainly dampen sentiment.
Biggles was pretty specific he said Melbourne.
I agree with you regarding sentiment but I think (cannot speak on Biggles behalf) is that he was simply arguing against the idea being thrown by some that there is a crash or even a bubble about to be burst.
Anyone stating things are rosy and looking great is also wrong.
I agree with you regarding sentiment but I think (cannot speak on Biggles behalf) is that he was simply arguing against the idea being thrown by some that there is a crash or even a bubble about to be burst.
Anyone stating things are rosy and looking great is also wrong.
This was precisely my point. I don't believe the Melbourne market is going to be thrown into another boom any time soon, nor do I believe it's going to crash. I just provided an example close to myself to show it's not crashing as some might suggest. I believe it's going to be cool for a while as a general, but think it's far from being a 'bubble about to burst'. That's just my opinion, everyone's entitled to their own and can think what they like. Time will tell, but I feel comfortable having investments in the Australian property market.
Thanks for your comments tcocaro, but just a minor correction, I'm a she not a he.
Thing is, it won't be no growth forever. It might be low growth for a little while, but I'm happy to "guess" that there will be another typical cycle with good growth in the next 10 years. My negative portfolio only has to grow 1.2% per annum to break even, I'm happy to accept that rather than pull out my crystal ball and try and time the market to predict the next boom.
There may well be better investing opportunities out there at the moment, but none that I am knowledgeable in, nor care about at this point in my life. Property I enjoy and am passionate about, so feel secure in investing this area, even if it's not "the best" investment class all the time.
Emotions have long been known to cloud investor judgement. There was never an asset class so influenced by emotions as property.
Perhaps this will prevent the property bears having their day.
Lol I said nearly fell through 60%. Again you have this strange tendency to misread (rather than read between) the lines don't you?
If at a particular point in time the property can only sell for $380k then that just means $380k is in fact without any doubt the market price. Prices fluctuate on any given day.
But, to take your words as you say it since you specialise in doing that (eg 60% example), you want to offer me 20% below this market price. Why would I do that when by definition the market price is the price for which I can sell at on any particular day.
I'd be very disappointed to just breakeven Biggles, when my only stock tip on this forum has just doubled my money in 2 months.
With some interesting data out this week I thought it would be worthwhile summarising some of the more interesting points and more into a blog I wrote tonight. You can view the blog here: Australian Housing - RBA Raises Cash Rate
Or if you like being spoon fed
You'd be a fool to think it will crash. The more likely outcome is that prices will continue to rise. Why ? Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
love it, and correct i may say...
No I didnt misread, I stated its impossible you read the paper about that weeks clearance rate. I pointed out two weeks in a row it was above 60%. Then I went on to say it doesnt matter if its just above or just below. I then went on to say that given the market has been so hot in melbourne this is a good outcome regardless.
Your understanding about market price as it applies to property is warped. If you were gauranteed another buyer tommorow then yes I would hold out for a price as close to todays "notional" market price however if I beleived prices were falling I have to weigh up taking a hit today or waiting fingers crossed for another buyer soon or else run the risk that 3+ months go by, prices slide further and now may have to field even lower prices.
Hence why I stated your comparison to shares as just plain dumb because there is always a ready market to buy your shares which is not the case with property.
Its obvious you havent sold much property or else you will grasp this simple concept. Its NOT a highly efficient and liquid market so you cannot hold out for market price in a falling maket something just under is a good offer, hell an offer is a good outcome in a falling market as buyers evaporate but keep thinking property and shares are the same in this regard.
Also your view on property is narrow to say the least. Why invest in property if there is no capital growth? Because not all of us just buy a finished home and sit on it. I buy a block and "improve" the value so if prices are stable then I will still make my set margin. This is the same for renovators, builders, developers and those seeking cashflow investments and the list goes on. Or am i wrong here too? Yes or No? Or do all developers go broke when prices go sideways? lol, seriously expand your horizon it will do you some good.
Your understanding about market price as it applies to property is warped. If you were gauranteed another buyer tommorow then yes I would hold out for a price as close to todays "notional" market price however if I beleived prices were falling I have to weigh up taking a hit today or waiting fingers crossed for another buyer soon or else run the risk that 3+ months go by, prices slide further and now may have to field even lower prices.
Hence why I stated your comparison to shares as just plain dumb because there is always a ready market to buy your shares which is not the case with property.
Its obvious you havent sold much property or else you will grasp this simple concept. Its NOT a highly efficient and liquid market so you cannot hold out for market price in a falling maket something just under is a good offer, hell an offer is a good outcome in a falling market as buyers evaporate but keep thinking property and shares are the same in this regard.
Also your view on property is narrow to say the least. Why invest in property if there is no capital growth? Because not all of us just buy a finished home and sit on it. I buy a block and "improve" the value so if prices are stable then I will still make my set margin. This is the same for renovators, builders, developers and those seeking cashflow investments and the list goes on. Or am i wrong here too? Yes or No? Or do all developers go broke when prices go sideways? lol, seriously expand your horizon it will do you some good.
I think it's dangerous to invest in something you know nothing about which is why I stick with what I know. I see clients lose thousands on shares all the time and wonder why on earth they stick with it when they obviously haven't a clue what they're doing. How many have I seen lose money on property? I could probably count them on one hand. Property is a long term investment for me, I'm happy to ride out a few cycles of ups and down and believe long term it will see me far better growth than what I could accomplish in the sharemarket for example. I'm not saying other investments aren't good, but for me, property is what I understand and feel confident with and anything else would be dangerous for me at this point in time.
Correct. Do share traders simple stop trading when the stockmarket goes down and switch trades and go into property? Are they idiots for continuing trading stock during such times? No. They simply adjust to market conditions.
Property or shares.. they are just asset classes one invests in. One simply adopts different strategies during good, bad and so-so times.
Property or shares.. they are just asset classes one invests in. One simply adopts different strategies during good, bad and so-so times.
Hmm thanks for your essay response.
Anyway - you're qualifying your statement. The market price is the highest price for which I can sell at any given point in time. That's what market price is. You're qualifying it with 'notional' market price, which is basically another euphemism for 'intrinsic value'. They're two different things. Thus my arguments still hold.
Onto your second point, devleopment = a form of business involving value-add ,via other mechanisms from the industrial and construction sectors.
Contrary to your once again inaccurate belief, I actually understand this concept. Perhaps I'm not too familiar with the little renovations you're talking about or that you do - I'm more involved in the multi-million dollar developments and land holdings haha... but as usual, what have I got to prove on a forum with a stranger I don't know, except maybe to amuse myself and annoy a few fools who get all angry? Hmm... Anyway all I really wanted to say on this point was we're talking about passive real estate investment in this therad or at least I think most of us are. Do compare apples with apples. Talk about lmfao...
