We're building towards a home construction boom

[Shadow]

He has already predicted a crash for 2016:

http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=441496&postcount=1

Following the construction & price boom that will take Sydney's median price to $1.25 million:

http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=362901&postcount=8

When Shadow finds himself wrong, he just changes the goal posts.

I haven't been wrong with either of those predictions. In case you hadn't realised, 2016 doesn't end for another few years (this is still only 2013... seriously, check your calendar - do it right now!)

Shadow is already wrong. It's not hard to find posts where he was claiming victory on the construction boom in 2009, over two years before his new claim that the boom kicked off in Q1 2012

I always said the construction boom would begin around 2011. In fact it began in early 2012. Close enough I reckon.

I don't recall ever having predicted a housing crash

Considering the fact that you think this is 2017, I'm not surprised you have trouble recalling other things.

 

[hobo-jo]

"When Shadow finds himself wrong, he just changes the goal posts."

This was a general statament about your many predictions, not specific to those I mention in the post.

 

[Shadow]

"When Shadow finds himself wrong, he just changes the goal posts."

This was a general statament about your many predictions, not specific to those I mention in the post.

Sure.

 

[natedog]

No stats to back it up but it's real.

2013 is the best year ever for sales volume for one of melbournes top 5 biggest (by volume) residential single dwelling builders.

Read into this in whatever way you want, but its real and happening/happened now.

The first quarter of 2014 will be the real tell on where its headed, usually the first 3 months of the year are our biggest selling months.

 

[Shadow]

New dwelling activity in NSW continues to rise.

Now above early-2000 boom levels, and still rising fast...

 

[ok180]

New dwelling activity in NSW continues to rise.

Now above early-2000 boom levels, and still rising fast...

Yes, I can confirm Sydney is now in a building boom not seen since prior to the olympics.

You done it shadow, your predicted it! 5 years off but you did it!!!!

 

[Shadow]

You done it shadow, your predicted it! 5 years off but you did it!!!!

Cheers, yes I reckon I didn't do too badly for a prediction made almost five years in advance!

Back in 2007, I predicted the construction boom would kick off in Sydney by the end of 2011, and the data shows it actually kicked off in Q1 2012, so at the worst I was a month or two out.

 

[redwing]

No stats to back it up but it's real.

2013 is the best year ever for sales volume for one of melbournes top 5 biggest (by volume) residential single dwelling builders.

Read into this in whatever way you want, but its real and happening/happened now.

The first quarter of 2014 will be the real tell on where its headed, usually the first 3 months of the year are our biggest selling months.

Apparently

Sydney house prices shot up by 14 per cent in 2013 and have grown another three per cent in the early stages of this year, according to RP Data. Buyers are looking further afield for affordability, while better roads and public transport make for an easier commute.

THE FACE of western Sydney property has changed, with first home buyers flocking from all corners of the city to buy into some of the new developments on offer.
There are now 122 suburbs in Sydney?s west where more than 10 per cent of the population lived outside the area just one year ago, according to RP Data. For 10 of the suburbs, the ratio of outsiders has climbed higher than 20 per cent.

The Ponds, in the Blacktown council, recorded the largest number of newcomers, with a stunning 46.8 per cent of the population currently making friends with their new neighbours. Other development hotspot suburbs such as Spring Farm, Oran Park and Ropes Crossing also had high ratios of between 37 per cent and 42 per cent.

Developers say that until recently, buyers of house and land packages came from nearby, but this has all changed, with soaring inner city property prices driving buyers from as far as 50km away to western suburbs.

Buyers come from up to 50km for new homes in Sydney?s west

 

[Shadow]

in 2007, I predicted the construction boom would kick off in Sydney by the end of 2011, and the data shows it actually kicked off in Q1 2012, so at the worst I was a month or two out

More on the construction boom...

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-housing-construction-hits-a-new-high-2014-7

'Dwelling commencements in first quarter of 2014 surged 8.7% to a record high annual rate of 196,000, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reports.'

 

[Ergophobia]

Well done Shadow

I'd love to hear about how you cashed in on this prediction

 

[depreciator]

Anecdotally, I'm staggered at the number of new apartments going up in the Inner West. I've never seen anything like it. Every time I go up a street I haven't been up for a while there is a huge building site. I went up Alice Street in Newtown yesterday for the first time in ages and the site there is massive. The big one in Marrickville near the station is about to finish and there are a dozen smaller projects on the go. Duwich Hill has a bunch, too. Thank goodness we have a train line because the traffic will be nuts when the places fill up.

 

[Shahin_Afarin]

Are they selling quickly?

 

[depreciator]

Are they selling quickly?

Beats me. It will take some pressure off the rental market, though. I've heard rents are pretty high. The increased supply might soften prices, too - for a little while.

 

[Paul@PFI]

Anecdotally, I'm staggered at the number of new apartments going up in the Inner West. I've never seen anything like it. Every time I go up a street I haven't been up for a while there is a huge building site. I went up Alice Street in Newtown yesterday for the first time in ages and the site there is massive. The big one in Marrickville near the station is about to finish and there are a dozen smaller projects on the go. Duwich Hill has a bunch, too. Thank goodness we have a train line because the traffic will be nuts when the places fill up.

Dulwich Hill is rising with the access to the light rail now a reality rather than a maybe. A client who owns three IPs there reckons its risen min 15% in the past year alone and 30% in last three. And anything that hits the market gets sold fast. He is getting door knocked by local agents to sell but wont consider it.

 

[Redom]

I get a similar feeling about Liverpool. Obviously a lot further out, but the number of new apartment buildings going up near the Liverpool hub is nuts. In the place where my folks stay (which is new), there are at least 5-6 multi storey developments within 100m. Then theres a couple towers going up. Traffic is already nuts and the train line out that way is a pain.

Stock seems to be moving though, although im sure others would have a better feel for that than me.

Anecdotally, I'm staggered at the number of new apartments going up in the Inner West. I've never seen anything like it. Every time I go up a street I haven't been up for a while there is a huge building site. I went up Alice Street in Newtown yesterday for the first time in ages and the site there is massive. The big one in Marrickville near the station is about to finish and there are a dozen smaller projects on the go. Duwich Hill has a bunch, too. Thank goodness we have a train line because the traffic will be nuts when the places fill up.

 

[natedog]

Best first 6 months of sales for one of melbournes top 5 by volume house builders

Best first 6 months of sales in company's history.

There has been no lul since the start of 2013!

I didn't think 2014 could go close to competing with 2013 for sales volume....but it had surpassed it compared with same point last year.

 

[Shadow]

Building activity hits 20-year high

Building activity hits 20-year high

http://www.apimagazine.com.au/api-online/news/2014/10/building-activity-hits-20-year-high

Building activity hits 20-year high

Posted on Thursday, October 16 2014 at 10:36 AM

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) says the home-building recovery has brought activity to its highest level in 20 years based on recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

With home starts topping 180,000, Shane Garrick, chief economist at HIA, has welcomed the result.

?Back in early 2012 when activity was so low, the prospect of breaking through 180,000 starts within a couple of years was beyond almost everybody?s most optimistic expectations.?

 

[qonyx_sydney]

I get a similar feeling about Liverpool. Obviously a lot further out, but the number of new apartment buildings going up near the Liverpool hub is nuts. In the place where my folks stay (which is new), there are at least 5-6 multi storey developments within 100m. Then theres a couple towers going up. Traffic is already nuts and the train line out that way is a pain.

Stock seems to be moving though, although im sure others would have a better feel for that than me.

I'm also curious too about Liverpool... Anyone have any predictions on what will happen in this market with so much supply that is a fair way from the city... Or is this the beginning of a transformation which may see it rival Parramatta due to the south west growth centre and the second airport

 

[Shadow]

Approvals to build new homes surged to an all-time record high in November... http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...ecord-in-boost-to-growth-20150108-12k53e.html

 

[Redom]

Approvals to build new homes surged to an all-time record high in November... http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...ecord-in-boost-to-growth-20150108-12k53e.html

Supply of stock > average demand levels - well and truly now. Will take a while to soak up decades of undersupply, but this should put a lid on rental growth. IMO, I cant see how using the 5%+ rental growth figures used in lots of calculators is at all prudent.