What do you think - Interest rates may have peaked
- Thread starter TheAnalyst
- Start date
Re:
I guarantee you there'll be more
I guarantee you there'll be more
The RBA is trying to crystal ball inflation.
Their crystal ball is no better than yours or mine. They dont know whats going to happen nor do you or I.
I would put little credence on what the RBA thinks is going to happen. What I do know is that there has been a dramatic increase in commodity price which has not yet had time to wash through the economy.
Im calling for more rate hikes.
Their crystal ball is no better than yours or mine. They dont know whats going to happen nor do you or I.
I would put little credence on what the RBA thinks is going to happen. What I do know is that there has been a dramatic increase in commodity price which has not yet had time to wash through the economy.
Im calling for more rate hikes.
More interest rate rises for sure.
I do not find a lot of people agree with me. 
I have predicted the DOW would drop to 10000 and Austraian index would drop to 5000 by the end of 2008 calender year. They are all on the way.
Why can not you read through exact point points what RBA is making?
I have predicted the DOW would drop to 10000 and Austraian index would drop to 5000 by the end of 2008 calender year. They are all on the way.
Why can not you read through exact point points what RBA is making?
I am interested in your quotes. I interpet as follows:
"Could have "---- you could have bought a few properties fw years ago - but you did not
"Should have" ---- you should have bought a few IPs few years ago - you you have not"
I reckon after another few years, you may still have these "could and should" if you do not ACT.
The rise of petrol price - RBA can not do any thing about it. Petrol would have a follow on impact on everything. The consumer has ALREADY significantly cut their living (not those riches of course). If RBA want them to cut more --- do not eat, do not send kids to school, do not dress....
Everything has to happen to Certian Degree. NOT only the CPI...
I am interested in your quotes. I interpet as follows:
"Could have "---- you could have bought a few properties fw years ago - but you did not
"Should have" ---- you should have bought a few IPs few years ago - you you have not"
I reckon after another few years, you may still have these "could and should" if you do not ACT.
Could have done more, much more when I was a lot younger. When I get to my 10th IP, I might change the "didn't" to "did", but that's a while away.
I thinkk the RBA has not gone far enough in the wrong direction yet, consumers are hurting but not enough for my swing indicator to kick in.
I'm working on the fact that most large organisations, GOV, RBA, etc are so slow that they get things wrong almost all the time. My memory of the last rate rise and fall was that things were really hard before interest rates fell. I remember not buying beer or wine for 6 months, things were tough.
I working on a social analysis rather than a fundamental analysis, often called a guesstimate.
I reckon 2 more .25% rises. I'll put my 2c on the table.
Cheers
quoll
I'm working on the fact that most large organisations, GOV, RBA, etc are so slow that they get things wrong almost all the time. My memory of the last rate rise and fall was that things were really hard before interest rates fell. I remember not buying beer or wine for 6 months, things were tough.
I working on a social analysis rather than a fundamental analysis, often called a guesstimate.
I reckon 2 more .25% rises. I'll put my 2c on the table.
Cheers
quoll
I just got out of an elevator that had one of the news scrolls.
I think it said ABS released retail data today that showed retail spending is up 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted.
Can anyone confirm?
As a side note I would have thought that increased petrol prices only change spending patterns - money that would have gone on take away food or childrens clothes gets redirected to petrol expenses. I don't think people take money out of the economy (ie choose to save more) just because petrol prices go up. Quite the contrary I expect they save less and spend more on petrol.
I think it said ABS released retail data today that showed retail spending is up 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted.
Can anyone confirm?
As a side note I would have thought that increased petrol prices only change spending patterns - money that would have gone on take away food or childrens clothes gets redirected to petrol expenses. I don't think people take money out of the economy (ie choose to save more) just because petrol prices go up. Quite the contrary I expect they save less and spend more on petrol.
I think that once the Olympic games China will hit the brakes and we will be affected, HARD. I think that by December the RBA will be looking at slashing the rate by at least a 0.25% and probably 0.5%
Wouldn't be surprised to see mid 5s by the end of next June.
who cares what the central bank does with rates - the banking system has decoupled from taking a lead from the central bank - rates will go up a bit more regardless of what the central bank does
Exactly, when the mining sector finally slows down they'll need to kickstart the economy with a few rate cuts and a lower AUD. Guess we'll see soon enough , its only a few more sleeps 'till Xmas.
I agree with the poster that says we all bought the same crystal balls as the RBA.
They were handing out this same information back in May 07 and i found it almost impossible to find a single article with reference to someone saying interest rates will rise in late 07 and 08 (at the time) - i thought that as important because overseas i was reading the exact opposite. So to me what they say is 'solala'. If anything, the uneducated masses are all now breathing a sigh of relief.
Anyway lets not forgot some bits of information:
- global interest rates are still rising (watch the ECB this week?) and lets not forget the all important US and what they will do. Anyone spoken to some Americans lately how they feel about their currency?
- Oil is still rising last time i checked
- Gold is still rising (is it anticipating something?)
- Good old tax cuts are coming. (australia is still a highly taxed country, so i want them)
- Other Commodity prises are rising (namely Iron Ore, Coal, but not the only)
- Borrowing is still high (yes its slowing, but so what, i slow down for zebra crossings too).
-wage rises?
- and of course what 'singintheblues' just stated above.
I think the RBA should have waited for much more information before this release. Inflation expectations are still high, and why not? Everything is still rising!!
They were handing out this same information back in May 07 and i found it almost impossible to find a single article with reference to someone saying interest rates will rise in late 07 and 08 (at the time) - i thought that as important because overseas i was reading the exact opposite. So to me what they say is 'solala'. If anything, the uneducated masses are all now breathing a sigh of relief.
Anyway lets not forgot some bits of information:
- global interest rates are still rising (watch the ECB this week?) and lets not forget the all important US and what they will do. Anyone spoken to some Americans lately how they feel about their currency?
- Oil is still rising last time i checked
- Gold is still rising (is it anticipating something?)
- Good old tax cuts are coming. (australia is still a highly taxed country, so i want them)
- Other Commodity prises are rising (namely Iron Ore, Coal, but not the only)
- Borrowing is still high (yes its slowing, but so what, i slow down for zebra crossings too).
-wage rises?
- and of course what 'singintheblues' just stated above.
I think the RBA should have waited for much more information before this release. Inflation expectations are still high, and why not? Everything is still rising!!
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I realise this was a what do "you" think thread but come on the RBA isn't fast enough to work out things are stuffed until at least the middle of next year.
And mid 5s for interest rates ......
cheers
quoll
And mid 5s for interest rates ......
You think that's too high ?
Less then 12 months ago the yanks were running 5.25% and most "experts" were predicting more increases to fight the inflation. Last week I read somewhere "US holds interest rates at 2pc to combat inflation"
cheers,
h
