When will the All Ords hit 5000?

[alba]

With the stock market (ASX) easing off all time record highs. I was wondering what peoples thoughts were on when we will hit 5000 in the ASX.

Based on previous booms the ASX is anything but overvalued, I certainly don't think there is a bubble. Resource stocks and export businesses + any business serving China seem to be very good areas to invest in general.

The answer to your question is 11 July 2008. Isn't hindsight a marvellous thing?

Looking at the charts from a purely technical point of view I see no sign of a bottom just yet. The index is clearly in a downtrend or bear channel. I see scope for another drop in the coming months to 4500 or even 4000, before any meaningful bounce. I guess this is not a very popular view with people who, unlike me, already own shares but unfortunately is also supported by the fundamentals as the magnitude of this current crisis is just about to be revealed. I believe that those who were hoping that the worst of the US's problems are over will be disappointed and I'm afraid some very big names in the financial sector will go under this year.
Don't get me wrong, I have faith in the Australian economy as one of the best equipped to weather the storm but there is a hurricane out there.

Best regards,

alba

 

[Pete_d]

Interesting thread this one, and a very long one dating back to 2006, calling for predictions when the all ords will hit 5000.

Anyone what to have a crack at this one again. Currently sitting at 3619, the all ords at 5000 would be a 38% gain. My tip for what it's worth Oct-2010.

 

[Nathan]

lol we should rename to, when will the all ords hit 2999?

 

[Sunfish]

My tip for what it's worth Oct-2010.

Pete, I know you are just putting a figure out there, looking for a response, but it looks as if you are just picking a median of the opinions in the market. The "median" of opinions measured twelve months ago would have given you a total garbage picture of what has occurred since. Had you made investment decisions based on this "middle of the road" opinion, you would have been slaughtered in the stock market (it is the market which posts results nearly as quickly as the TAB. The jury is still out on RE investments.)

I doubt that the current "reasonable view" is any more reliable. You would be better of having a punt on a dramatic change. Better or worse, red or black? Do some study and place your bets.

There are fortunes to be made in the next year. I think I know where but don't ask. If you are genuinely interested my opinion hasn't changed for years.

 

[boomtown]

Ive read it from start to finish. Fascinating. This was my favourite post on 17 October 2005:

You don't drink at The Vale do you? Last Fri I was talking to a guy who borrowed cash from GECredit @ 35% to trade options.

Couldn't be you, he was young and stupid!!!!

Edit... Personal loans are dangerous. They are written in such a way that all your assetts are considered collateral.

 

[MichaelW]

The "median" of opinions measured twelve months ago would have given you a total garbage picture of what has occurred since. Had you made investment decisions based on this "middle of the road" opinion, you would have been slaughtered in the stock market.

There are fortunes to be made in the next year. I think I know where but don't ask. If you are genuinely interested my opinion hasn't changed for years.

I agree. I sold out completely in January at 5200 and my financial planner was trying to talk me out of it suggesting the market would be back at 6800 by Christmas. Some how I think that's not going to happen now...

And, FWIW, I'm tipping that bet of yours is gold! And I tend to agree!! Maybe throw some oil stocks in there too and you'll be on a good footing.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[Sunfish]

Ive read it from start to finish.

Then I applaud your study. Seriously!

But where did you drag that old quote from? I'll have to go back and see the context in which I posted it. Mrs Fish has control of the remote so there is nothing better to do.

 

[Sunfish]

And, FWIW, I'm tipping that bet of yours is gold! And I tend to agree!! Maybe throw some oil stocks in there too and you'll be on a good footing.

Cheers,
Michael

Not so narrowly focussed, but:

Years ago I was saying "Gold good, silver better." (I also tipped U2O3 before it ran up, and it will again) It has transpired that the precious metals have done quite well since but Ag has fallen back re Au. I still believe my original call was correct.

There is the chance of a lifetime out there. If you are both brave and correct wealth awaits you.

 

[boomtown]

Sunfish

There should be a small blue button in the right of the quote you can push to take it back into context.

Failing that it appears on page 14 for me.

Cheers BT

 

[Pete_d]

Pete, I know you are just putting a figure out there, looking for a response, but it looks as if you are just picking a median of the opinions in the market.

Sunfish, I take your point. The prediction was a bit of a through away line. It was based on nothing more than a cursory look over a chart of 100 years history of all ords.

But I was more interested in this thread as a time capsule. It details the strong bull run of late 2005- late 2007 and the bear from late 2007 - to now. Interesting views on the way up (like the express by boomtown) and just as interesting on the way down.

Anyway, I think the next 1-2 years will provide some interesting opportunities. To quote the Simpsons.

Lisa: Cheer up, Dad. Did you know the Chinese use the same word for 'crisis' as they do for 'opportunity'?
Homer: Yes. Crisitunity.

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Sunfish,

Do some study and place your bets

.

That basically says it all, with the only thing I would add, "have an uncle point", a point that says my study was wrong, I was looking at the wrong inputs, whatever.

All the words written, opinions expressed, and inner beliefs (based on whatever study) are nothing but fluff until we place our bets. Everyone has their bets, putting money in the bank is a bet. Everyone makes incorrect investment decisions, because no-one can possibly have all the information, nor know how to interpret it with 100% accuracy.
Having the uncle point is what separates the wheat from the chaff.

bye

 

[nonrecourse]

Putting it out there

Interesting thread this one, and a very long one dating back to 2006, calling for predictions when the all ords will hit 5000.

Anyone what to have a crack at this one again. Currently sitting at 3619, the all ords at 5000 would be a 38% gain. My tip for what it's worth Oct-2010.

My tip is is that at the end of Oct 2010 the ASX will be around 2200 and our property market will be off by 40-50%

 

[willair]

My tip is is that at the end of Oct 2010 the ASX will be around 2200 and our property market will be off by 40-50%

I guess we all have distortions of reality from time to time but if that is the way you see things ,what do you think Australia will be like with those numbers,if the ASX goes down to those levels and property is down 40-50%,unemployment up around 10%,Banks not lending then the ecom will self implode,not something i want to see..willair..

 

[Sunfish]

Bill, when you say "have an uncle point", if my understanding is correct, then the market has already passed mine. I did far more selling than buying all year and only have a small holding now.

No trend is emerging yet so I'll stay out. I see nothing which gives me courage. After rising a little last week, the Baltic Dry Index has dropped again and has now lost 93% from it's highs. This may be because the actual demand for shipping has fallen or because the banks wont write the Letters of Credit. But it ain't good.

 

[Bill.L]

Hi Sunny,

Can I use a nic, for your nic??

I bought into a couple of shares a few weeks ago, that showed a bit of life. Didn't last long in the trade and I'm still keeping my powder dry looking for opportunities. I lost a couple of hundred bucks on about 10 grand worth of shares, and that was only toe in the water stuff. If the market had gone up, I would have ponied up.

I only stay committed to a position when I'm right (ie what I buy keeps going up), then become more committed

I will buy into shares not far from the bottom, and I know this because I will have bought several times before and been wrong and got out. Eventually I'll get it right or most (good) shares go to zero.

bye

 

[oracle]

I only stay committed to a position when I'm right (ie what I buy keeps going up), then become more committed

I will buy into shares not far from the bottom, and I know this because I will have bought several times before and been wrong and got out. Eventually I'll get it right or most (good) shares go to zero.

I suppose making a loss in the sharemarket is inevitable. Everyone makes losses. The catch is as long as the number and/or amount of losses are less then the profits you will survive and have got a winning investment strategy.

Developing such a winning investment strategy and sticking to it all the time is a challenge in itself.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Well, only took 1.5 years to recover to 5000.

Should be some retraces below in the next few weeks.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

Well, only took 1.5 years to recover to 5000.

Should be some retraces below in the next few weeks.

could be who knows in the short term.

but i have one hypothesis which dam p**sing me off.

This is pure speculation on my behalf by the way, anyway here it goes?


(a) residential property with gearing will out perform shares (with or without gearing), as people are now aware of the risks of investing in the stock market, so share market prices are generally behaving themselves (out side of the resources market).
Many people who lost money in the stock market are looking at the residential property market as their future get rich fast wealth creation mechanism.
(b) residential property market falls.
(c) even though the stock market didnt 'perform' as well as the residential property market it still has a fall (bt from which level i dont know) due to the loss of wealth effect and the dominant position of the big banks in the ASX200 index.
(d) once things recover the share market will start to out perform the residential property market, and the whole cycle will begin afresh.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

This is exactly why i generally like investing in bank stocks. The big for banks operate in a unique environment that is not replicated anywhere else in the world. They have an entrenched market position and in effect operate as a weak form of oligopoly.
The going gets tough, now the banks start clawing back their margins, and what can the market do about it? nothing
2008 and probably 2009 are going to be tough years. But if you can see through the current market jitters, the big 4 banks could actually benefit from the credit crisis.
Even after the passage of the credit crisis, we are unlikely to revert back to the days of easy credit. The markets been there already and been burnt, it will probably take 10 -15yrs before the next generation of investors 'forget' about the dangers of accepting lax lending standards.
Therefore there will be less lending competition which should see the banks restore their traditional lending margins (which has been eroding for the last 10yrs). If lending margins fatten, then less lending is required to achieve the same profit.

The current market is actually VERY favourable for long term retail investors. There are not many circumstances where the retail investor has edge over institutional investors. At the moment institutional investors have their hands tied by
1) unit redemptions and loss of investment mandates
2) their need to show short term outperformance to maintain and build their funds under management.
A private investor is not accountable to anyone, and thus can build a portfolio based on long term investment criteria rather than trying to select which industry/sector/stock is going to out perform in the next 6-12 months.

I now rest my case

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Many people who lost money in the stock market are looking at the residential property market as their future get rich fast wealth creation mechanism.

And that's been helped by Mr Rudd capping super contributions.
Many used to load up on shares via super.....the cap has directed a lot of that into property.