Cairns Update

Prices movements in Cairns

Dear everyone:

I have monitored the advertizing prices of 4-bed room houses in 3 suburbs in Cains over the past few months/weeks, and here is what I found (median 4-br prices):

[Please note that I did not consider 3-bedders or 5-bedders, just to reduce the work, there are just too many 3-bed room houses for sale.]

(1) Mt. Sheridan:

June 9: 330K
July 7: 290K
Aug. 16: 280K

trend: down

During that time period, prices in Forrest Gardens did not change, but houses for sale were reduced:

June 9: 320K, 380K, 389K, 395K, 395K
July 7: 320K, 389K, 395K, 395K
Aug. 16: 395K, 395K

Thus those in F. Gardens below 395K have all been sold so far.


(2) Brinsmead:

Aug. 15: 335K
Aug. 25 (today): 350K (or 335K, as there were 21 houses for sale, so if I choose the 10th, it is 335K, but if I choose the 11th, it is then 350K).

Trend: up slightly.

(3) Whitfield

July 30: 450K
Aug. 25 (today): 485K (or 480K, same reason as above).

Trend: slightly up.


I guess the time interval is too short to give a reasonable conclusion. It is, however, clear that prices in Mt. Sheridan area has been down recently.

bye for now.

shu
 
Shu,

Be very careful drawing conclusions from such a short time frame.

You are correct about the time interval being too short.

Some other factors to consider, looking specifically at the Mt Sheridan example, are that potentially the median at $330K was overpriced to begin with. People often have more bullish views on the value of THEIR property versus those of other people. If sold that could be because people with limited real estate experience bought it.

Equally, people could have become more bearish - definitely part of the reason prices fall is because the seller has an expectation that prices are lower & creae a self-fulfilling prophecy!

Also the condition and location of the property influences the price level. There can be substantial variations depending on whether it's a good street close to shops & transport or out in the back blocks of the burb. A renovated house with beautiful landscaping should in most cases sell for more than an 'ordinary' or unrenovated property.

Inclusions help as well - dishwashers, security systems, lock-up garages, more bathrooms & other factors all influence the value, not to mention the more important factors of the size of the house & the land!

Price is also influenced by the neighbours, the age of the property & the vendor's financial situation. Someone desperate to sell will always end up with a lower price than someone in no particular hurry.


Thus over such a short time frame the variations in condition, location, real estate agent sales skills & vendor expectations can easily vary median price $50K or more for houses that are merely similar in the number of bedrooms!

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Thommo said:
Air-con Yes! S/pool No!
Click to expand...
Oh, I dont know. Whilst not a "must" like air conditioning there is no doubt that houses with pools attract a higher price and rent in Cairns.

I have two with pools there that both get at least $20 a week more because of it and the houses with pools, when compared to houses without, all other things being equal, attract a higher price.

Whether you want to take the risk or go through the potential hassle of having a house with a pool is a different matter. :)
 
Aceyducey said:
Shu,

Be very careful drawing conclusions from such a short time frame.

You are correct about the time interval being too short.

Some other factors to consider, looking specifically at the Mt Sheridan example, are that potentially the median at $330K was overpriced to begin with. People often have more bullish views on the value of THEIR property versus those of other people. If sold that could be because people with limited real estate experience bought it.

Equally, people could have become more bearish - definitely part of the reason prices fall is because the seller has an expectation that prices are lower & creae a self-fulfilling prophecy!

Also the condition and location of the property influences the price level. There can be substantial variations depending on whether it's a good street close to shops & transport or out in the back blocks of the burb. A renovated house with beautiful landscaping should in most cases sell for more than an 'ordinary' or unrenovated property.

Inclusions help as well - dishwashers, security systems, lock-up garages, more bathrooms & other factors all influence the value, not to mention the more important factors of the size of the house & the land!

Price is also influenced by the neighbours, the age of the property & the vendor's financial situation. Someone desperate to sell will always end up with a lower price than someone in no particular hurry.


Thus over such a short time frame the variations in condition, location, real estate agent sales skills & vendor expectations can easily vary median price $50K or more for houses that are merely similar in the number of bedrooms!

Cheers,

Aceyducey
Click to expand...


Hi, Aceyducey:


Thanks for your reply. Yes, I agree with you on all the points you said. I need more time to follow the trend. I also noticed in the Commonwealth Bank's Property Value that the prices in Mt. Sheridan in May and June were much higher that 2-3 months ago. (I entered a contract for a Forest Garden house in May, what a wrong time!).

The house prices in Whitfield are so much higher than other suburbs, and the 4-bed room house meidian price is about 480K! With the highest 1.5 m!

shu
 
It also helps to have a condition in the lease where the tenant must pay for regular maintenance with a professional pool company. Our property manager has this with our property and works well. The only extra we have to worry about is the pump and a clean before handover.
Di
 
Yuan Shu said:
Hi, Aceyducey:


Thanks for your reply. Yes, I agree with you on all the points you said. I need more time to follow the trend. I also noticed in the Commonwealth Bank's Property Value that the prices in Mt. Sheridan in May and June were much higher that 2-3 months ago. (I entered a contract for a Forest Garden house in May, what a wrong time!).

The house prices in Whitfield are so much higher than other suburbs, and the 4-bed room house meidian price is about 480K! With the highest 1.5 m!

shu
Click to expand...
That's a good reason to stay out of Whitfield in my opinion. It is overpriced as compared to other suburbs in Cairns for no good reason. I know that the locals are largely mystified as to the reasons why (appart from the obvious development at Parkridge Estate).

There is not much in the way of educational facilities or other facilities as compared to many of the suburbs to the south. It also does not get the cooling winds in the hot summer months. My property manager up there believes that the main reason for high prices there is due to Sydney investors pumping up the market. There is a perception that it is a premier suburb because of this boom and this is simply not the case.

I would stick to the southern suburbs such as Bayview Heights, Kanimbla, Forest Gardens and Mt Sheridan for better value for money. I think that those areas also have more room to move.
 
I was in Cairns last week doing a ppty inspection on my house...my PM told me that many PM companies are seriously short of 3bdrm houses in the $200-250 market close to all the usual amenities.

The rents have all gone up and young families are finding it hard to get an affordable house. So if you're in the market for a rental you might not have vacancy issues in this bracket.

Happy hunting
Ecogirl
 
bkw319 said:
That's a good reason to stay out of Whitfield in my opinion. It is overpriced as compared to other suburbs in Cairns for no good reason.
Click to expand...
That's bucking the trend - I've found all other Whitfields good value.

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
Cairns Median House Prices

From the Cairns Post - 21 Aug - REIQ figures for the past 25 years
The % change is the percentage change in property prices.

The rental figures are for houses and the gross rental yield for houses for the last 14 years.

Year % change Houses-Median Weekly Rent/Gross Rental Yield
1975 - 27.0%
1976 -12.4%
1977 -27.3%
1978 150.0%
1979 -28.0%
1980 56.9%
1981 4.4%
1982 35.6%
1983 0.0%
1984 25.9%
1985 19.0%
1986 10.2%
1987 13.6%
1988 39.3%
1989 16.7%
1990 -5.9% $160 7.25%
1991 -0.2% $160 7.23%
1992 10.7% $180 7.36%
1993 9.2% $180 6.73%
1994 9.7% $190 6.48%
1995 1.6% $190 6.37%
1996 1.5% $190 6.47%
1997 -3.1% $190 6.68%
1998 -0.7% $180 6.37%
1999 0.0% $180 6.37%
2000 -1.4% $180 6.46%
2001 2.8% $185 6.46%
2002 10.1% $190 6.02%
2003 15.9% $200 5.47%
2004 21.7% $230 5.17%
 
Cairns house price historical data

Hi, Chris:

Thanks for your information on the price histry.

shu

chrispy said:
From the Cairns Post - 21 Aug - REIQ figures for the past 25 years
The % change is the percentage change in property prices.

The rental figures are for houses and the gross rental yield for houses for the last 14 years.

Year % change Houses-Median Weekly Rent/Gross Rental Yield
1975 - 27.0%
1976 -12.4%
1977 -27.3%
1978 150.0%
1979 -28.0%
1980 56.9%
1981 4.4%
1982 35.6%
1983 0.0%
1984 25.9%
1985 19.0%
1986 10.2%
1987 13.6%
1988 39.3%
1989 16.7%
1990 -5.9% $160 7.25%
1991 -0.2% $160 7.23%
1992 10.7% $180 7.36%
1993 9.2% $180 6.73%
1994 9.7% $190 6.48%
1995 1.6% $190 6.37%
1996 1.5% $190 6.47%
1997 -3.1% $190 6.68%
1998 -0.7% $180 6.37%
1999 0.0% $180 6.37%
2000 -1.4% $180 6.46%
2001 2.8% $185 6.46%
2002 10.1% $190 6.02%
2003 15.9% $200 5.47%
2004 21.7% $230 5.17%
Click to expand...
 
Hi all,

I have a couple of IP's in Cairns (one in Kanimbla and the other in Forrest Gardens). Purchased just over 18 months ago and have had no trouble renting each one. Am more than pleased with growth in value and rent rises at this stage.

My main concern when buying was that with Cairns being very reliant on Tourism, any drop in tourist numbers could also drop house prices. Which did happen 4 or 5 years ago when Unit prices dropped from $90k back to $70k.

Does anyone know of a GOOD PM in Cairns? One of mine is average and the other just seems to be getting worse.

Have enjoyed reading all the previous posts so far, its great to get peoples different thoughts and ideas about the area, keep it coming.
 
Yes I would be interested in a good pm in Carins as well.Ours has let the lease expire,the tennant is on month to month now, with no call to us and left the rent at the same level as when it was a six month lease.
Peter
 
Hi guys
This has already been answered in a thread - maybe in this one or the Manunda thread. Sorry to not post the link I'm a bit slack - I'm meant to be working and I have a mtg to go to :) . Hope this helps

Cheers
Ecogirl
 
I agree it gets me crankey as if they are doing their job they know well in advance of the lease expiring that they are not going to renew, so tell them the rent is going up.
How hard is that??
Peter
 
Hi Ecogirl,

I have looked through all the previous threads and only found information on good Agents, but nothing on good PM's. Thanks for the reply anyway. :)
 
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