Employment figures for July '09

[keithj]

Employment surprised on the upside in July. The ABS released Labour Force figures today.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE )
EMPLOYMENT
increased by 32,200 to 10,793,600. Full-time employment decreased by
16,000 to 7,590,400 and part-time employment increased by 48,200 to 3,203,200.

UNEMPLOYMENT
increased by 800 to 664,100. The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased by 4,800 to 495,900 and the number of persons looking for part-time work increased by 5,600 to 168,200.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
remained steady at 5.8%. The male unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage point to 6.2%, and the female unemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage point to 5.3%.

PARTICIPATION RATE
increased 0.1 percentage point to 65.3%.

There's been a marked change in employment patterns - less full time workers & more part time workers - in roughly equal amounts. This appears to indicate that employers are reluctant to retrench staff, but would rather give then reduced hours. I see this as a positive for the housing market - families are likely to have to tighten their belts on a reduced income, rather than be forced in selling up by retrenchment.

In response to this new trend in working arrangements the ABS has introduced a monthly measure of aggregate monthly hours worked.

In trend terms, the aggregate monthly hours worked by employed people in Australia in July 2009 was 1.52 billion hours (see Table 1). This represents a decrease of 1.5 million hours (or –0.1%) from June 2009 and a decrease of 35.1 million hours (or –2.3%) from July 2008. In seasonally adjusted terms, there was a decrease of 0.4% from June 2009 and a decrease of 2.9% from July 2008.

 

[Aaron Sice]

i got employment at 5.8% - a decline in FT employment by 16,000 but an INCREASE in PT empoyment of 48,200.

that's 32,200 jobs ADDED to the equation.

 

[Strannik]

all i see is that people gave up on finding full time work, and decided that part time is good too

 

[MichaelW]

Interesting isn't it. I flagged that result as soon as it happened in the 5 year fixed rate thread and there's some interesting debate going on over there too...

I see this as a sign of strength and rates to move earlier than expected.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[topcropper]

I see this as a sign of strength and rates to move earlier than expected.

Looks like it. You bulls were right all along. Talk now that unemployment may not even go much higher..!! Here's hoping.

I was talking to some miners in the pub tonight. Things are ramping up again. Thousands of new workers wanted in numerous new operations all around here now. Can't get enough workers in lots of rural towns. Can't get accomodation. And it was even on channel 10 tonight about the worker shortage in my area.



I piled back into the ASX 3 weeks ago when it was about 4000. I even bought some banks, CBA and WBC. Either resi property was too optomistic, or the share market was too pesimistic. One or the other. Shares were wrong I reckon, but hope I don't put the moker on it.


See ya's.

 

[MichaelW]

Hi TC,

Good move getting back in at 4000 I reckon. I don't have enough cash free to bother as its all just play money at the levels I'm talking about. I'll use it to fund the interest and holding costs whilst I do my development. Much more bang for my buck.

I've moved to Brisbane now and got a call from a local Supply Chain executive agency wanting to meet and share a coffee. I mentioned that I want to stay in my current role for at least 12 months to do it justice and asked anecdotaly what the local market was like thinking it would be flat. He said that it was quite the opposite. He said the market had turned on a dime and he was absolutely flat out trying to fill new positions. He said its only going to get more active as everything he is seeing now suggests a massive increase in employment work.

That's just word of mouth, but kind of supports what the figures are starting to point towards. This could be the beginning of the end of the recession we didn't have to have (I coined that too, can I get copyright?)

PS Maybe BOTH the share market and the resi property market were too pesimistic if you get my drift... We've been flat in Sydney for a while now and I'm ready for a little run. Even Julia Gillard is out spruiking how well the Sydney employment market is doing.

Gillard hails unions as jobless rate reverses slide

SYDNEY has become Australia's jobs powerhouse, piling on almost 30,000 new jobs in the past three months as the rest of Australia lost 30,000.

Against the national trend, most of the new jobs went to men and more than a third were full-time.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[keithj]

This could be the beginning of the end of the recession we didn't have to have (I coined that too, can I get copyright?)

Sorry Michael, Ausprop got in with that a couple of days ago.....

This must be labelled 'the recession we never had'.

And good luck in Bris.......

 

[WinstonWolfe]

He said the market had turned on a dime and he was absolutely flat out trying to fill new positions. He said its only going to get more active as everything he is seeing now suggests a massive increase in employment work.

Cheers,
Michael

A couple of anecdotes that challenge that.

A contact in senior mgt with Tyco expect a 30% decline in revenue over the next 12mths, due to client projects still on hold.

Wesfarmers coal recently suspended rollout of systems upgrades.


ANZ job ads July09 released 3/8/09

Highlights
Job ads on the internet and in newspapers fell by 1.7% in July, taking the annual fall to 51.9%.
Newspaper job ads fell by 0.4%, while internet job ads dropped by 1.8%.
Job advertisements are showing tentative signs of stabilisation, which implies that business is
no longer cutting back hiring intentions at the same pace.

 

[MichaelW]

Sorry Michael, Ausprop got in with that a couple of days ago.....

Mine's different and more a play on words for Keating's famous recession we had to have!!

Ah well, I thought it was clever...

Winston, I hear you. Its a really interesting juncture we're at right now. But I'm in the steel game and head of supply chain for the region, so I talk to all the senior sales and account manager types and they're all saying the big projects are starting to come back online. There will be a bit of a lag, but in 6 months time they reckon we'll have heaps of work on again.

I also saw a letter that went out to our customer base from a sister division in the group explaining the global steel market dynamics and why they were about to put their prices up again due to the marked increase in steel demand globally. Very interesting times...

Cheers,
Michael

 

[WinstonWolfe]

There will be a bit of a lag, but in 6 months time they reckon we'll have heaps of work on again.

Cheers,
Michael

Have you seen any signs of Rudd's infrastructure stimulus yet?

If the private sector (miners) are recovering, then one might expect public projects to be put on hold or suspended indefinitely.

 

[MichaelW]

Have you seen any signs of Rudd's infrastructure stimulus yet?

If the private sector (miners) are recovering, then one might expect public projects to be put on hold or suspended indefinitely.

Which would be great as it would stop the ballooning of our foreign debt. The sooner the private sector picks up, the sooner he can turn off the stimulus and let market dynamics carry the day. As a high income earner I obviously have a vested interest in seeing the foreign debt remain manageable as rising taxes on the Rudd "wealthy" is the next logical step if he lets it balloon too far.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[topcropper]

That's just word of mouth, but kind of supports what the figures are starting to point towards. This could be the beginning of the end of the recession we didn't have to have (I coined that too, can I get copyright?)

I'll go with,....

...."The recession we thought we had but didn't".....


Well, I don't know about anywhere else, but there was never any sign of a slowdown in my area.


See ya's.

 

[keithj]

...."The recession we thought we had but didn't".....

The recession everyone else had.
The recession the D&Gers are still waiting for
The recession that wouldn't cooperate
The recession that refused to come to the party

 

[WinstonWolfe]

As a high income earner I obviously have a vested interest in seeing the foreign debt remain manageable as rising taxes on the Rudd "wealthy" is the next logical step if he lets it balloon too far.

Cheers,
Michael

Gee Michael, steady on....next thing you'll be agreeing with Steve Keen.

Unfortunately, it is probably too late to avoid fat tax hikes.....though you can always join Jim Rogers in Singapore.........

I wonder if Rudd factored in how higher tax rates will drive away the most talented.....never mind it is bound to be a great trade off if we can all eat BigMacs then get free dental care.....will only cost 0.75% of your gross taxable.

 

[Aaron Sice]

singapore - where even the tax man is on holiday.

 

[keithj]

Septembers Job Ad series from ANZ shows an upturn.... they feel unemployment will peak at 7.25% within 10 months.

• Job ads on the internet and in newspapers increased by 4.1% in August. This was the first monthly increase in this series since April 2008.
• Newspaper job ads rose by 5.5%, while internet job ads grew by 4%.
• Total job advertisements have bottomed out and are now on the way up
  up, albeit from very low levels. The number of job ads remains 48.1% lower than a year ago.

........

• Looking further ahead, today’s numbers confirm our optimism that the pace of decline in employment will not be as severe as envisaged six months ago. Australian economic activity has been remarkably resilient in recent months, particularly in some of our largest employing industries such as retail trade, health services, government and construction.
• Furthermore, the rebound in business investment (up 2% in Q2) and good growth rates across most domestic industries in last week’s national accounts indicate that some of the main sources of downward pressure on labour demand are now easing. In particular, Australian manufacturing, which saw job cuts of 76,500 in the year to May 2009, experienced growth in real output in Q2 (+0.7%) for the first time since last June.
• We now expect the Australian unemployment rate to peak at around 7.25% in mid 2010.

 

[Strannik]

maybe ads show upturn but statistics shows downturn

Australian unemployment has remained at 5.8 per cent in August despite the loss of 27,100 jobs.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate only stayed steady because some people gave up looking for work, with the participation rate falling from 65.3 per cent in July to 65.1 per cent in August.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/10/2681941.htm?section=justin

i think government is being overoptimistic

majority of people i talk to say they are either laying off, not hiring or cutting the hours

 

[Ausprop]

WA unemployment is falling. Resources states will lead the way out of this mess.

 

[chilliaa]

A couple of anecdotes that challenge that.

A contact in senior mgt with Tyco expect a 30% decline in revenue over the next 12mths, due to client projects still on hold.

Wesfarmers coal recently suspended rollout of systems upgrades.


ANZ job ads July09 released 3/8/09

Highlights
Job ads on the internet and in newspapers fell by 1.7% in July, taking the annual fall to 51.9%.
Newspaper job ads fell by 0.4%, while internet job ads dropped by 1.8%.
Job advertisements are showing tentative signs of stabilisation, which implies that business is
no longer cutting back hiring intentions at the same pace.

mmmm i wonder what Bill Gross thinks about Australia, but then this doesnt correlate to your current stream of postings, so i guess its conveniently ignored. So much for keeping a broader perspective.

or maybe what your favourite poster: Meredith Whitney says about Goldman Sachs, and what does Goldman Sachs say about australia

 

[chilliaa]

Septembers Job Ad series from ANZ shows an upturn.... they feel unemployment will peak at 7.25% within 10 months.

Goldman Sachs already posted a note to its instiutional clients about this issue.
Basically they concluded and i have to write from memory here, i cant remember the exact words:

if australia have surplus labour coupled with uncertainty why do you need to advertise. People are sending you their resumes directly, or are getting jobs through the 'network'. So no need to waste money on advertising.