Unemployment up to 5.3% (10 month high)

what the...

the only thing you wrote that made any sense was "Investories" which I assume is short for Investment stories because all you seem to do is spin a good fairy tale sprinkled with half truths and complete BS.


bluestorm said:
No mate. Same as you property investors don't really look at month-month median movements. Australia's heading for a recession.
The high dollar in the quarter contributed to GDP with a rise in Investories. Exports are still slowing. Just means that the Sep and Dec quarters will be negative. (2 quarters extra, sue me).

And for the most part, Australia IS in recession already. Just look at the businesses struggling on the ground. The official figures are just skewed by a boom in mining, but will catch up eventually.
Click to expand...
 
buster said:
So agriculture is struggling is it , guess it is it is struggling, struggling to meet demand because the ports and delivery infrastructure are at full capacity (thanks to Greg Combet). Also struggling because of lack of workers, 100,00+ needed. Mines not going ahead because there are no workers, another 100,000 + needed. House hold consumption up 1%, Buisiness investment up 2%, Domestic demand up4.8%, Annual GDP growth rate 5% ? Real domestic income grew 2.6%. Record savings/ bank deposites so much that interest rates are going down.
Click to expand...

Clearly Australia will boom then buster:rolleyes:.
There's an equal, if not longer list of negative indicators on the Australian and global economies. Unemployment will head up.
 
tcocaro said:
It is amazing to think that once upon a time right after world war government housing use to be managed with a wall of keys were people come and take a set and once back on their feet return the keys.

How did things go so wrong? :p
Click to expand...

Good question. Wondering about this myself, this evening I came across an altogether surprising research paper that concluded -

One can say that, empirically, countries tend to cluster so that countries with large and mostly universal welfare-state programs also have low levels of corruption, a high degree of social trust, and high levels of happiness and social well-being. And vice versa, countries with smaller and means-tested welfare systems tend to be higher on corruption, have lower levels of social trust, and lower levels of social well-being.
Click to expand...

Basically, well-off people apparently feel happier paying for more social welfare than in other well-off countries, as long as they can have an un-means tested share of it.

Am I simply envious of profligate-welfare recipients (rather than rationally evaluating the societal cost-benefit implications)? It seems so.
 
bluestorm said:
I'm stating net exports figures from the ABS website - Net Exports (-0.5 percentage points) was the largest detractor.

Turk read back. I have said through 2012 for the property correction (15mths to go on that prediction). Let the rag doll go.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Apologies Bluey

I realize you don't want your old predictions brought up,

However I have read back,in fact right back to your 1st thread where you predicted,

" and this will see the property prices fall through to 2012."


http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61852

Once you got this wrong you then blamed the Gov. for propping up prices and moved your prediction out to end 2012.

You also predicted negative GDP in the June quarter, wrong again.

You simply moved your 30% house price falls out to 2012 and your recession out to the September/December quarters of this year.

We will have the Sept. GDP figures in 3 months lets see what your excuses will be then.

However one day you will be correct:p
 
turk I dont know how you could be stuffed but good on you for taking the time to look him up as it does make a funny read...

His substantiation for most of what he says and predicts here is...

"It's the vibe of the thing, your Honour."


turk said:
Apologies Bluey

I realize you don't want your old predictions brought up,

However I have read back,in fact right back to your 1st thread where you predicted,

" and this will see the property prices fall through to 2012."


http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61852

Once you got this wrong you then blamed the Gov. for propping up prices and moved your prediction out to end 2012.

You also predicted negative GDP in the June quarter, wrong again.

You simply moved your 30% house price falls out to 2012 and your recession out to the September/December quarters of this year.

We will have the Sept. GDP figures in 3 months lets see what your excuses will be then.

However one day you will be correct:p
Click to expand...
 
This brings us back to my original view/post on this thread were you best summed it up with "the welfare state is both necessary and pernicious

In summary the welfare state is required and all we can do tinker around policy edges (e.g. selling expensive govies) and focus on improved education, lower cost of living and generally better government which in turn will reduce welfare dependence.

As much as we sometimes want to feed our instinctive reaction to "dole bludgers" what we cannot do is punish these people into submission thinking they will somehow say "ok ill start working from today". However on the flip side nor can we find ourselves in the current situation were we treat them like some kind of protective species.

Belbo said:
Good question. Wondering about this myself, this evening I came across an altogether surprising research paper that concluded -



Basically, well-off people apparently feel happier paying for more social welfare than in other well-off countries, as long as they can have an un-means tested share of it.

Am I simply envious of profligate-welfare recipients (rather than rationally evaluating the societal cost-benefit implications)? It seems so.
Click to expand...
 
Oh come-on Sim. How was that trolling.:mad: I was replying to tcocaro, and saying even economics and Somersofters tweak predictions a little, but overall the world and Australia is heading into problems.


This message has been deleted by Sim. Reason: trolling

See you guys. Clearly I'm on Sim's blacklist on saying anything D&G.
Enjoy your property forum. Only positive property comments welcome.
 
I must say I appreciate negative comments too. After all if investors can't stomach criticisms - whatever their tone/nature/motivation - then that's all a bit hypocritical.
 
Rarely do we predict an outcome with such specificity like yourself. You predict down to the month\year and % change e.g. 30% etc.

This is a fools game to predict with such certainty in order to justifies ones actions today and worse when forum members have to be accosted by yourself for their opposing views.

So if you like others e.g. Steve Keen and co stand there predicting time and time again specific drops by specific dates then pointing out each time they are wrong is completely valid. However at this stage you then (like Keen) tweak your prediction and then accuse us of holding you to account much to vigorously.

You're predictions are long and varied, if only you were able to step back and think for a moment you will realize how foolish you are by doing so. Feel free to predict general directions, magnitude of falls but please spare me the on Thursday, 6th of October 2012 it will be a sunny day with a slight breeze oh an the property market will drop 9.223% type predictions which you do on regular occurrence.

The troll title is thanks to the fact that the vast majority of your posts are statements rather that discussion points, questions or advice. However please dont think that I dont think my own comments fly very close to the line as well as I let my emotion/anger get the better of me.

"Anger dwells only in the bosom of fools" - Albert Einstein

Therefore I am a very big fool and share good company :p



bluestorm said:
Oh come-on Sim. How was that trolling.:mad: I was replying to tcocaro, and saying even economics and Somersofters tweak predictions a little, but overall the world and Australia is heading into problems.


This message has been deleted by Sim. Reason: trolling

See you guys. Clearly I'm on Sim's blacklist on saying anything D&G.
Enjoy your property forum. Only positive property comments welcome.
Click to expand...
 
bluestorm said:
Oh come-on Sim. How was that trolling.:mad: I was replying to tcocaro, and saying even economics and Somersofters tweak predictions a little, but overall the world and Australia is heading into problems.


This message has been deleted by Sim. Reason: trolling

See you guys. Clearly I'm on Sim's blacklist on saying anything D&G.
Enjoy your property forum. Only positive property comments welcome.
Click to expand...

see you next Monday.
 
bluestorm said:
If you, lizzie, Aaron, and Belbo actually looked at the facts,
Click to expand...

Looking at them now ... I'm looking out my window at my beach and ocean view and tucked down, right in front of the beach, is 6 blocks, of 24 units per block, 100% housing commission. Taking up several acres of top dollar real estate (Nathan Tinkler paid $8mil for two side by side standard resis with knock downs on them only a few blocks away)

Another four lots of similar mass unit blocks about 5mins away, scattered in prime inner ring positions (The Junction, Cooks Hill, Newcastle, Hamilton South) ... those lovely 1970's square brick unit blocks ... clustered in groups of 6-12 towers.

And yes, they are a hive for violence - knives, guns, drugs, you name it.
 
Last edited:
bluestorm said:
If you, lizzie, Aaron, and Belbo actually looked at the facts
Click to expand...

i do.

except i use on the ground data, you use the data available at the end of a computer screen and university theory to back up your claims, all of which are proving to be wrong.

how's this - on the weeknd a recently approved DA site for eighty (80) over55s villas went to market with brochures. i didn't design them, but I "tweaked" them for construction and lobbied their approval. it's a little site cabin in the middle of sand pile, but that sand pile is in the heart of suburbia snugged between 2 major schools, a rec centre, small shops, medical centre and a major district shopping centre.

two hundred and seventy two (272) brochures, fifty (50) odd singles and one hundred and twenty (120) odd couples and ten (10) hours of people walking in the door - supposedly from the spectrum of demographic "not spending" - for eighty (80) dwellings.

theorise that one away for me, mr smarty pants.
 
Aaron Sice said:
two hundred and seventy two (272) brochures, fifty (50) odd singles and one hundred and twenty (120) odd couples and ten (10) hours of people walking in the door - supposedly from the spectrum of demographic "not spending" - for eighty (80) dwellings.

.
Click to expand...
Do you know the numbers on how many signed up on the day,for the 80
retirement villas..
 
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