We're building towards a home construction boom
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
Strong start to the year... could this be it?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/03/building-approvals-rise-in-january/
regardless what shadow stated in times past, low building approvals is good for residential property long term as supply is being constrained.
Reduced supply + population growth over the long term = good for existing owners of property.
I don't disagree, I think the low level of construction (and resulting restriction of supply) is probably the main contributor to the growth in Sydney rents over the past couple of years, but that's not really the topic at hand here.
I think we can safely say that Shadow was wrong with his call for a construction boom starting in 2010/2011, but even so I would be impressed if it started only 1 month late. Must remember to check back on these figures in a few months
Just to add an anecdote about the current market into the mix; was speaking to one of the very long-standing agents in our area two days ago....
When asked how he was going, he told me that they were currently selling 4 houses where last year it was 10 for this month, and house prices haven't moved in the last 2 years, and he predicted more of same this year.
He also predicted many agents going out of business, and he stated that without his rent role for cashflow he would be pretty stuffed as a well.
I have a good number of building industry guys as our customers at the workshop, and the talk is that it is slowing down big time - not a lot of work for a big number of them.
Also, did anyone see "Sunrise" yesterday? Now, I do realise that this is mainstream media and can be alarmist etc, but.....
Kochie was talking to a construction industry delegate who was involved in some sort of demonstration to do with Govt departments not paying (building) contractors on time, and that thousands of jobs were on the line etc...
One of the things that came up was the figures for new dwellings being built and the figure was at a record low according to Kochie and his stats.
On a wider note; talking to one of of my very successful golf colleagues (in retail and golf proshop management) - golf retail and player numbers, as well as memberships are way down and no signs of improvement. Still some sales of equipment via internet of course, but still down overall.
And, one of the tyre company reps came in (I have not sold many of their tyres in the last 6 months or more). He was saying that their account paying defaulters are at record numbers,
And another tyre supplier of ours was saying that they have had their worst 6 months of sales since beginning business some 25 years ago.
Make of it what you will.
When asked how he was going, he told me that they were currently selling 4 houses where last year it was 10 for this month, and house prices haven't moved in the last 2 years, and he predicted more of same this year.
He also predicted many agents going out of business, and he stated that without his rent role for cashflow he would be pretty stuffed as a well.
I have a good number of building industry guys as our customers at the workshop, and the talk is that it is slowing down big time - not a lot of work for a big number of them.
Also, did anyone see "Sunrise" yesterday? Now, I do realise that this is mainstream media and can be alarmist etc, but.....
Kochie was talking to a construction industry delegate who was involved in some sort of demonstration to do with Govt departments not paying (building) contractors on time, and that thousands of jobs were on the line etc...
One of the things that came up was the figures for new dwellings being built and the figure was at a record low according to Kochie and his stats.
On a wider note; talking to one of of my very successful golf colleagues (in retail and golf proshop management) - golf retail and player numbers, as well as memberships are way down and no signs of improvement. Still some sales of equipment via internet of course, but still down overall.
And, one of the tyre company reps came in (I have not sold many of their tyres in the last 6 months or more). He was saying that their account paying defaulters are at record numbers,
And another tyre supplier of ours was saying that they have had their worst 6 months of sales since beginning business some 25 years ago.
Make of it what you will.
As is typical some people read and regurgitate only what agrees with their view of the world.
BUILDING APPROVALS AUSTRALIA
NUMBER OF TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
The trend estimate for Australia fell 0.5% in January 2012.
NUMBER OF PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved rose 0.1% in January.
In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate fell 0.1% to 7,508 houses.
NUMBER OF PRIVATE SECTOR DWELLINGS EXCLUDING HOUSES
The trend estimate for private sector dwelling units excluding houses fell 1.0% in January.
In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate rose 1.5% to 4,024 dwellings
BUILDING APPROVALS AUSTRALIA
NUMBER OF TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
The trend estimate for Australia fell 0.5% in January 2012.
NUMBER OF PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved rose 0.1% in January.
In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate fell 0.1% to 7,508 houses.
NUMBER OF PRIVATE SECTOR DWELLINGS EXCLUDING HOUSES
The trend estimate for private sector dwelling units excluding houses fell 1.0% in January.
In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate rose 1.5% to 4,024 dwellings
is most likely completely inaccurate.. after all it is just entertainment
probably not a good idea to take anything at face value from the media these days, its that bad imvho
is most likely completely inaccurate.. after all it is just entertainment
probably not a good idea to take anything at face value from the media these days, its that bad imvho
I don't watch Kochie but he does try to present as a "serious" economist/presenter.
It actually began in 2011 with the new NSW government introducing policy aimed at boosting construction.
It just takes a bit longer to flow through to the figures.
That's a rubbish argument Shadow and you know it.
Is it any wonder they want to boost construction when it was running 25% lower than the decade average (RP Data, November 2011).
You're great at manipulating arguments, just like your good buddy Christopher Joye...
By the way when are you going to provide a measurable outcome for this "construction boom"??
No, and that's why in 2010 I said this...
"Labor will lose the NSW election and the incoming coalition will implement policy to encourage development of new housing stock, leading to a residential construction boom in Sydney."
Google my quote - or look in the APF prediction thread to find it.
Not sure why you think that makes my argument rubbish though?
It's happening exactly as I predicted.
I can't give a figure. It depends on population growth and household formation. Lets say anything that takes us close to 2003 Sydney oversupply levels, when rental vacancy rates were around 4-5% (compared to around 1-2% now).
I note you weren't so quick to post the February results
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/04/nsw-hits-building-approvals/
I note you weren't so quick to post the February results
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/04/nsw-hits-building-approvals/
LOL, thanks, I hadn't seen them yet actually. That's a huge drop! Prices to the moon then...
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Did you remove that other comment and chart after you realised you were looking at unit prices?? aahahaha Adelaide house prices down 1.8% for the month.... not that I really care about month to month swings.
Last I checked comparable properties to where I sold my PPOR in late 2009 were selling for around 10% lower than when I sold.
I'm waiting for cheaper prices in Adelaide... and also waiting for this mythical construction boom you're expecting for NSW
Who are you trying to convince...
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au said:
http://www.yourinvestmentpropertyma...using-levels-heading-for-gfc-lows-127746.aspx
I hope the RBA doesnt drop rates... the longer this goes on, the more chance ill start to see some long over due capital gains
RPData's latest capital markets report has a nice giraffe showing demand rising strongly against supply
http://www.rpdata.com/research/capital_markets_report.html
