That's the question who is buying right now,when you look at the numbers the next boom may be a long time away..
We're building towards a home construction boom
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
Sydney has a population of around 4.5 million, so building an extra 100,000 homes will house about 260,000 people, or 6% of its current residents.
Or to put it another way, there's currently around 8,300 too few built each year, so this will make up for 12 years of shortfalls.
Increasing the supply on this scale should reduce prices overall. So I don't see it leading to a booming market.
Or to put it another way, there's currently around 8,300 too few built each year, so this will make up for 12 years of shortfalls.
Increasing the supply on this scale should reduce prices overall. So I don't see it leading to a booming market.
You're right - it won't increase prices in the areas where the new homes are being built. But it does increase the scarcity factor of existing homes, which may increase prices.
It's interesting pathology, isn't it?
It's true that I predicted back in 2008 that the Sydney construction boom would begin in 2010-2011, and yes, the actual dates did come in at the latter end of my predicted time period, with the new NSW government taking power in 2011 and beginning in late 2011 to implement new policy aimed at boosting residential construction (by the way, I also predicted on the Zetaboards Property Forum in early 2010 that this is exactly what the incoming government would do when they took office).
So the initial phase of the construction boom (i.e. government policy aimed at boosting construction) did begin in 2011, as predicted.
The construction boom has begun.
This comment seems to be at odds with the content of the very article you posted:
Plans for rezoning ≠ construction boom.
Sydney construction would have to jump some 30-50% simply to catch up with levels seen a decade ago... next thing you'll be telling us that catchup to old growth levels was the boom... perhaps some clarification is in order, e.g. what number of dwelling completions you expect, when and for how long, etc.
You're starting to sound *really* needy.
I'm thinking a construction boom would best be defined as a boom in construction.
You know, buildings and whatnot.
If government announcements constitute a thing beginning, then everything has begun.
The grown-up thing to do would be to accept that arguing at the beginnng of a global financial crisis that the obvious next stage in the Australian real estate cycle would be a construction boom was somewhat delusional.
Obfuscation, rationalisation and misdirection works as well, of course.
Is an increase over previous levels required to qualify as a boom - or is a significant increase over current levels considered a boom?
Why would a significant increase over current levels only be classified as "catch up", rather than an actual boom?
Incorrect (and very poor logic).
Not everything has been announced by the government.
What they have announced, is a plan to drastically boost construction.
That sounds like the beginning of a construction boom to me.
If house prices rose from -6% YOY to 4% growth YOY or went from 3% to 13% YOY would you consider each different (e.g. one's a reversal and one's a boom) or are they both booms given they've moved by the same rate of growth?
As was pointed out in the article, Sydney is not constructing enough homes to meet demand, so it could increase from here and still only be meeting demand. In my opinion a construction boom will require something like Melbourne has just experienced where many more dwellings are built than are required resulting in an oversupply.
As it stands Shadow's "construction boom" from what I can gather is currently not measurable (or at least Shadow hasn't provided a measurable statistic that we can use to track his success like he did with the $1m Sydney house prices by 2015)... so Shadow, how about it? Some dwelling completion targets and dates for your construction boom (given that we've now passed 2011 and your prediction was wrong)?
True Dat ..........True Dat
Still building:
New home sales slumped in January, posting their biggest ever monthly fall since records began in October 2000, a survey of Australia’s 100 largest builders shows.
Sales of new homes fell 7.3 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in January this year, dragged lower by a slowdown in Victoria, HIA-JELD-WEN new home sales figures show.
New home sales in Victoria fell in January to 1675, their lowest level since November 2006.
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“Victoria for a long time propped up new home building in Australia and now the reverse is occurring,” said Harley Dale. “New home sales, along with other leading housing indicators, are showing that other large markets in Australia are not filling the void.”
The Reserve Bank's interest rates cuts in late 2011 had failed to stimulate new home building, Mr Dale said.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-home-sales-in-record-slump-20120229-1u25y.html#ixzz1nl3DRuuX
New home sales slumped in January, posting their biggest ever monthly fall since records began in October 2000, a survey of Australia’s 100 largest builders shows.
Sales of new homes fell 7.3 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in January this year, dragged lower by a slowdown in Victoria, HIA-JELD-WEN new home sales figures show.
New home sales in Victoria fell in January to 1675, their lowest level since November 2006.
Advertisement: Story continues below
“Victoria for a long time propped up new home building in Australia and now the reverse is occurring,” said Harley Dale. “New home sales, along with other leading housing indicators, are showing that other large markets in Australia are not filling the void.”
The Reserve Bank's interest rates cuts in late 2011 had failed to stimulate new home building, Mr Dale said.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-home-sales-in-record-slump-20120229-1u25y.html#ixzz1nl3DRuuX
Strong start to the year... could this be it?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/03/building-approvals-rise-in-january/
What they have announced, is a plan to drastically boost construction.
That sounds like the beginning of a construction boom to me.
NSW dwelling approvals increase 37.6% in January... http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/latestProducts/8731.0Media Release1January 2012
Edit... lol, you got in one minute before me TS.
id say the clock is telling us we still have a while to go
From where i sit its about 7:45 AM
Perhaps its got something to do with daylight savings
From where i sit its about 7:45 AM
Perhaps its got something to do with daylight savings
TS? Really still going on about that? You're out of your mind.NSW dwelling approvals increase 37.6% in January... http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/latestProducts/8731.0Media Release1January 2012
Edit... lol, you got in one minute before me TS.
The jump is huge, I looked back through the last 7 or so years worth of Jan/Dec data thinking it might be seasonal, but can't see anything similar (infact some years it dropped from Dec to January).
I can't help but wonder if the stamp duty cut off had something to do with the approvals... first home buyers soaking up existing stock in the months leading up to December 2011 then those sellers now looking to build? Seems like a stretch.
Maybe this is the start of a construction boom or maybe just an anomaly, will be interesting to see.
Yes TS, you already mentioned that repeatedly in your four blogs about me...
